Can Newt be stopped? Two new polls put him ahead in early states

Is Newt Gingrich peaking at the right time?

The former House speaker holds double-digit leads in new polls in Iowa and South Carolina, two of the first states to vote in the Republican race for president.

An ABC News/Washington Post survey of Iowa Republicans puts support for Gingrich at 33% among likely caucusgoers, ahead of Ron Paul and Mitt Romney at 18% each. It’s the third poll in as many days to show Gingrich ahead.

In South Carolina, Gingrich holds a 38%-22% advantage over Romney, according to a new Winthrop University poll.

Of course, it seems every Republican candidate has had a share of the lead at some point in these states and nationally. But the timing is significant for Gingrich’s surge, with now only four weeks until the Iowa caucuses.

Gingrich caught and passed Romney at almost the identical time that Mike Huckabee caught and passed Romney in 2008.

As the Post points out in analyzing its survey, Gingrich “has advantages that extend well beyond the horse race that put him in an enviable position” for the stretch run. He is even with or ahead of Romney among Iowans on questions about electability, empathy and handling the economy.

Issues thought to be Gingrich’s main liabilities appear to have done no damage to his standing. One of Romney’s main arguments against Gingrich in their early skirmishing -- that he’s a “lifelong politician” -- actually seems to be something that appeals to Iowa Republicans; 70% say his political experience is a reason to support him.

Only 36% say Gingrich’s position on illegal immigration is a reason to oppose him. And four of five likely Republican caucusgoers say Gingrich’s marital history is not a major factor for them.

By comparison, 45% said Romney’s healthcare policies while he was governor of Massachusetts are a reason to oppose him, compared with just 14% who say it is a reason to support him. Four in five also say Romney’s faith is not a factor.

The ABC/Washington Post poll was conducted from Nov. 30 to Dec. 4 among 858 potential Republican caucusgoers, with a subsample of 356 considered to be likely caucusgoers. The latter sample has a margin of error of 6 percentage points.

The Winthrop poll of 1,073 registered South Carolina voters was conducted Nov. 27 to Dec. 4. The sample of Republican voters had a margin of error of 5.1 percentage points.