Gallup poll continues to give Republicans a big edge among likely voters

As the political parties gear up for the last three weeks of the midterm congressional election cycle, Republicans continue to enjoy a sizable advantage over Democrats among likely voters, according to the latest Gallup poll released Monday.

In its measurement of the so-called generic ballot, the poll found that 47% said they would favor the Republican congressional candidate while 44% said they would choose the Democrat.

The latest result, based on interviews between Sept. 30 to Oct. 10, are down one percentage point for the Democrats from the findings during the Sept. 23 to Oct 3 period. That is statistically unchanged given a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.

The latest findings continue the Democrats’ basic problems this year: they are not doing well among those who identify themselves as independents, and they have yet to ignite the kind of turnout they need to offset GOP enthusiasm.

Top Democrats, including President Obama and former President Clinton, have been campaigning vigorously to stir up the political pot among key Democratic groups such as the young and minorities. The president is expected to continue his personal and virtual campaign appearances until the election Nov. 2.

Gallup divides its findings into three scenarios based on the likelihood of turnout. In all three, Republicans hold sizable leads. In the high-turnout scenario, Republicans lead 53% to 41%, while in the low-turnout, the GOP edge grows to 56% to 39%, indicating those saying they back Republicans are more likely to vote.

More striking is how those calling themselves independents split before the Nov. 2 election. Republicans hold a 46% to 36% edge among all registered independents, but that increases to as much as 25 percentage points as the turnout drops.

michael.muskal@latimes.com

Twitter.com@latimesmuskal