Lots of talk about presidential debates – but no candidates have spoken up

What if you held a debate, but there were no candidates there to participate? That’s the gamble some prominent news organizations are taking as the political world looks ahead to the 2012 presidential-election cycle.

Just this week, four new Republican primary debates have been announced, in addition to two that were set last month. But no major contender has yet come forth to officially declare his or her candidacy, a contrast to four years ago, when the field was already beginning to take shape in both parties.

On Wednesday, ABC News and its affiliate in New Hampshire, WMUR, announced plans to hold a debate leading up to the state’s first-in-the-nation primary, likely in February or March of 2012.

Earlier, Fox News and the South Carolina Republican Party announced plans for a May 5, 2011, debate in Greenville, to be followed by a debate in 2012 leading up to that state’s crucial early primary.

On Tuesday, CNN and WMUR announced plans to host a debate in the Granite State on June 7, 2011.

NBC News has already announced plans for what it claimed would be the first presidential primary debate of the cycle, in the spring of 2011, hosted at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif.

The schedule so far mirrors the lineup in the run-up to the 2008 presidential primaries. But that was the first election in decades in which a sitting president or vice president was not running, and candidates were quicker to organize campaigns and begin wooing voters.

Ahead of the 2012 election, only Republicans are expected to have a contested nomination battle. But heavyweights such as former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee have indicated they are in no rush to formalize their expected campaigns.

Other aspirants, like outgoing Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, continue to focus on secondary efforts such as book tours and fundraising for political action committees before officially dipping their toes in the water.

Would-be candidates have been visiting early nominating states such as New Hampshire to test the waters, but not as declared candidates. A New Hampshire GOP official counts 25 visits since June 2009 by 11 different Republicans. Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) will be phoning in to a New Hampshire radio station Thursday to discuss the current tax debate.

The potential candidacy of Palin, in particular, is keeping other potential candidates from formalizing plans this early. It’s unclear just how many would be willing to change their plans in time for these planned debates in as little as five months.

mmemoli@tribune.com

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