Antiwar Stand May Be Popular, but It’s Unlikely to Win Angelides the Governorship

No, Phil Angelides is not attempting an all-or-nothing leap -- starting his run for president even before he’s elected California governor.

He’s not a political Evel Knievel. There’s less daredevil here than desperation.

He is desperate for Democratic voters.

Two new polls released Wednesday illustrate the state treasurer’s dilemma. Both show him falling further behind Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and failing to excite fellow Democrats.

Among likely voters, the Field Poll has Schwarzenegger leading 44% to 34%, with only 61% of Democrats supporting Angelides. He needs at least 80%. The Public Policy Institute of California has even worse news for Angelides: Schwarzenegger is ahead by 48% to 31%, and just 57% of Democrats are backing their party’s nominee.

Angelides’ solution is unprecedented for a gubernatorial candidate: Go give an anti-war speech. I know of no other major candidate for California governor who has ever tried to make an issue out of a foreign war -- not even when the nation was being torn apart by Vietnam.

In 1982, Gov. Jerry Brown did push strongly for a ballot initiative that advocated a nuclear weapons freeze. But Brown was running for the U.S. Senate. Voters passed the initiative and rejected Brown. President Reagan ignored the measure. In fact, he built more nuclear missiles.

A new Gov. Angelides, I suspect, would get the same snub from President Bush -- and probably should -- if the governor formally requested, as he had promised voters, a return of California National Guard troops from Iraq. A governor just doesn’t belong in a president’s war “situation room.”

But the PPIC poll demonstrates that there is a political market for hammering Bush on the war. That doesn’t mean there’s necessarily one for meshing the president and the governor together in voters’ minds, as Angelides hopes to do. And anyway, Angelides may not be the best marketer.

Bush’s job approval is at an all-time low in PPIC surveys -- 35% to 63%. But even among voters who disapprove of Bush, only 46% support Angelides.

What’s more, 66% of those surveyed disapprove of Bush’s handling of Iraq, 57% believe the Iraq war and the war against terrorism are separate fights and 63% say the Iraq war was “not worth it.” But Angelides is supported by only roughly 43% of this anti-war electorate.

Angelides’ plan is to generate enough fire against Bush and the Iraq war among Democrats that they “send a message” by voting against Schwarzenegger. The governor did, after all, help reelect the president. And he has steadfastly supported the Iraq war.

The underdog candidate chose as the site for his first anti-Iraq speech San Francisco State, a hotbed of antiwar protests in the 1960s.

Once on that campus, acting president S.I. Hayakawa leaped to the top of a truck and ripped the wires from a blaring sound system that had been preventing him from being heard over a jeering mob. That ultimately got him elected to the U.S. Senate.

There was no such drama Tuesday. About 200 students looked over the candidate with curiosity and appeared to agree with him on the war. But the cheers -- largely from campaign volunteers, it seemed -- lacked the passion of the Vietnam era. After all, kids these days aren’t getting drafted.

The speech read much better than it sounded. It read reasoned. It sounded a bit shrill.

Angelides didn’t promise to bring the California Guard home from Iraq. He constitutionally can’t. But he pledged to “do everything in my power” from “the bully pulpit.” That includes pressuring the president, mobilizing other governors, “walking the halls of Congress” and even “going to court.”

The California Guard currently has about 20,000 members, with roughly 2,000 mobilized for active duty. Nearly 1,200 are in Iraq or Afghanistan.

“These tours are exacting a tremendous cost on the Guard,” Angelides asserted. “A governor’s first responsibility is to ensure the safety of the people of California. And a governor cannot do that without a strong National Guard....

“This fool’s errand overseas isn’t just breeding more terror and torture in Iraq, it’s also hurting us here in the Golden State.... When a shameful and phony war compromises the governor’s basic ability to meet the needs of our people -- when it puts us at greater risk of injury and fatality when a disaster strikes our state -- then you’d better believe it’s an issue in the race for governor.”

Sorry, but that seems a weak link for attaching a state campaign to a foreign policy issue.

Also, this was Angelides’ first major anti-war speech. Coming toward the end of a political campaign when he’s desperate, it may seem a tad cynical for many voters. Why wasn’t he speaking out loudly three months ago?

Another problem, say skeptics, is that Angelides still has not “defined” himself for voters, other than perhaps as a taxer. They don’t really know who he is. Why should they listen to him about foreign policy?

“It’s hard for people to grasp exactly where he’s going on a topic like Iraq when they don’t know where he’s going on schools and the economy and issues closer to home,” says PPIC pollster Mark Baldassare.

It’s not that Angelides hasn’t tried. He just hasn’t clicked.

There’s another way to look at this, however: from outside the campaign arena.

Bush has botched the war -- on terror and in Iraq -- by trying to wage it on the cheap. He didn’t commit enough troops or equipment and failed to ask for national sacrifice, such as a surtax to pay for the war. Instead, he cut taxes and drove up the deficit.

The more voices demanding that the president change his disastrous course, the better for the nation.

It’s just that, normally, the best way to get elected governor is not to campaign like you’re running for president.

George Skelton writes Monday and Thursday. Reach him at george.skelton@latimes.com.