2 GOP Hopefuls Compete Head to Head

The emerging tug-of-war between Bill Simon Jr. and Tom McClintock played out in the rolling foothills of Placer County on Saturday, as the two right-of-center gubernatorial candidates traveled to California’s most Republican county to court the same conservative voters.

During rousing speeches to nearly 400 people at the annual county Republican Party barbecue and picnic, each man promised to repeal the tripling of the car tax and dismantle excessive state bureaucracy, and argued that he was the best choice to replace Gov. Gray Davis.

But it was McClintock, a state senator who ran for controller last year, who garnered the strongest support among these staunch Republicans. The legislator from Thousand Oaks brought many to their feet when he took the stage under an arch of red, white and blue balloons.

“This can be the moment when we roll back the taxes and the regulations that are destroying our economy, that we restore California’s public works, that we rein in our out-of-control bureaucracies,” McClintock said. “To do so, we’ve got to have a governor who knows every inch of this government and is willing and able to confront and challenge and defeat the spending lobby that now controls it.” As he spoke, he was interrupted frequently by cheers and hoots of agreement.

The applause for Simon, the party’s 2002 gubernatorial nominee, seemed tepid by comparison when he clambered onto the stage minutes after McClintock, his arms outstretched in greeting.

Don’t listen to those who say the recall election will be disruptive, he said.

“We need new leadership in order to avoid the chaos, in order to avoid the decline and fall of our great Golden State,” Simon said.

“We’ve got to send a message to our bureaucrats, including principally Gray Davis, that the ballgame is over,” he added. “It’s not politics as usual.”

The possibility that a federal judge might delay the Oct. 7 recall election, which was raised Friday, did not appear to squelch the enthusiasm of those munching tri-tip under sun-dappled oaks on a ranch east of Sacramento. The air swirled with chatter about the recall and the various candidates.

Although Simon and McClintock were ostensibly targeting the same man -- Democrat Davis -- their competition in this race is, at least at this point, each other.

In a statewide Field Poll released Friday, each won just under 10% of the vote of those surveyed, well behind Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante and actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, each of whom received roughly a quarter of the vote.

Though their ideological views are similar, Simon and McClintock and their supporters are marshaling very different arguments as the election nears.

Simon is trying to hold on to GOP voters dismayed by his showing in November’s election, when he lost to Davis by 5 percentage points. He argues that his campaign against Davis was correct, as the state’s deficit ballooned much as he had predicted.

McClintock is arguing that his long years in Sacramento have prepared him to best deal with the state’s fiscal problems.

Many interviewed Saturday said they are leaning toward McClintock, a stalwart conservative who, in his bid for controller during last year’s state election, earned 103,000 more votes than Simon.

Simon “already had his shot and he didn’t quite make it,” said Steve Oster, an engineer from Auburn. “He ran a very inept campaign and the people did not choose him. I think he should get out of the race.”

McClintock “knows where all the piles of bureaucracy are and he’s got the guts to chop them down,” said Bob Backus, 71, a retired construction company executive, as he stood in front of a large pioneer wagon he decorated with photos of President Bush and other GOP officials.

A handful of people at the Loomis barbecue said they also wanted to hear more about Arnold Schwarzenegger, who did not show up Saturday. Irked organizers said Schwarzenegger’s campaign had told them as late as Friday that he might attend. A parking spot reserved with his name remained empty.

“I think the people here want to know what he stands for,” said Ken Campbell, chairman of the local Republican Party.

Placer County has the highest percentage of Republican registration in California -- 52%, to just under 30% for the Democrats -- and, on Saturday, that rock-ribbed conservatism was on full display. A life-size cardboard cutout of former President Reagan on a horse greeted visitors to the ranch.

“You can’t find enough people in Placer County to admit they’re Democrats to fill a phone booth,” said Campbell, adding that nearly one in four voters in the county signed the recall petition. “It’s a piece of heaven.”

It is in this atmosphere that McClintock’s message of fiscal responsibility and smaller government resonates.

Fran Perkins, a retired accountant from Rocklin, volunteered on Simon’s campaign last year.

When the recall movement started, she knocked on 160 homes in her neighborhood asking people to sign the petition. Now she’s planning to vote for McClintock.

“McClintock has more experience with the budget, and we need to clean up the budget right now,” she said.

As for Schwarzenegger, she said, “Arnold who?”

Some noted that McClintock could have a hard time overcoming the actor’s name recognition and financial resources, but said they would rather vote for a candidate with solid conservative credentials.

“I don’t want to waste my vote, but I think I’m going to vote for McClintock,” said Jeff Jacques, a police officer from Woodland. “Schwarzenegger hasn’t come forward with what he’s about.”

Still, a few others said they are sticking with last year’s nominee.

“I think Bill Simon is the man,” said Dan Robinson, who runs a highway construction safety supply business in Placer. “I just believe in his platform, the things he stands for, smaller government.”

As for McClintock, “It’s too short of an election for him to get his name out there,” Robinson added. “And that’s too bad, because I think he’s a very good candidate.”

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Poll watch

This is another in a series of reports examining polls related to the California recall election. The reports offer a sampling of the latest public-opinion surveys as well as analysis on how to interpret the numbers.

Field Poll

What the poll says: Respondents were asked which candidate they would support if the election were held today.

Cruz Bustamante: 25%

Arnold Schwarzenegger: 22%

Tom McClintock: 9%

Bill Simon: 8%

Peter Ueberroth: 5%

Arianna Huffington: 4%

Peter Camejo: 2%

What to keep in mind: The poll interviewed only 448 ‘likely voters’ in the Oct. 7 recall election. It was taken last week -- nearly two months before the election. Polls taken early in a campaign don’t always predict the results because shifts tend to occur closer to election day as voters begin to focus more on the candidates. Polls are only accurate if the sample of respondents is representative of the actual voter turnout. Turnout in this election is very hard to predict, which means all polls have a greater degree of uncertainty.

Results based on telephone survey Sunday through Thursday in English and Spanish among a random sample of 629 registered California voters, 448 of whom are deemed likely to vote in the Oct. 7 recall election. The sampling error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.

Source: Field Research Corp.