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The Epitome of California Voters

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Times Staff Writer

Nestled between two small mountain ranges, this pastoral stretch of Central California has much to commend it.

The sprawl of Silicon Valley gives way in San Benito County to rolling hills, native oaks and endless acres of lettuce and spinach, making it one of California’s most fertile farm regions.

Downtown Hollister, with its old-time feel, is a nationally recognized historic place; homes in its tree-shaded neighborhoods, though pricier than a few years back, remain a relative bargain.

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But it is the county’s status as a political bellwether that makes it unique -- and the views of residents like Donna Holmes particularly compelling in these last weeks of the California governor’s race.

Holmes is a Democrat who opposed the 2003 recall and opposed Arnold Schwarzenegger in that unusual election. At the mere mention of President Bush, she shook her head and warned, “Don’t even go there!”

But come Nov. 7, Holmes will probably vote to reelect Schwarzenegger, snubbing her fellow Democrat, state Treasurer Phil Angelides.

“I do like him,” she said of the incumbent, citing Schwarzenegger’s willingness to fund social programs and “the way he has reached out to people” beyond his own Republican Party.

Angelides, she said, turned her off during the nasty Democratic primary and has done nothing to woo her back, not even when he ties Bush to Schwarzenegger. The governor “has his own agenda,” said Holmes, the 68-year-old owner of a trucking company in San Juan Bautista.

In the last few elections, voters in San Benito County have an unparalleled record of mirroring California’s statewide results, often with remarkable precision.

In 2003, for instance, the state voted 55% to 45% to recall Democrat Gray Davis, the same as San Benito County. Statewide, Schwarzenegger received 48.6% of the vote to replace Davis; he received 48.7% in San Benito County.

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It unclear why this out-of-the-way place, just a short drive from the Monterey Peninsula, lines up so neatly with California’s sentiments. With 56,000 residents, about the population of Arcadia or Fountain Valley, the county is hardly a statistical match. It is more rural than California as a whole, and its residents are younger. Latinos make up a much larger percentage of the population and there are fewer college graduates.

Still, the voting trend, which started in 1998, continued on June 6 when San Benito County rejected two state bond measures and cast ballots in the gubernatorial primary in numbers very close to statewide returns.

With that history, a series of random interviews with voters around the county offered some hints of how Schwarzenegger has rebounded from last year’s disastrous special election and why Angelides faces an uphill fight to replace him.

Most of those asked in the unscientific survey said they believed that, overall, things in California were headed the right way, a stark shift from the last several years of discontent. People griped about the state of the public schools and complained about high gas prices and crumbling roadways. Several said not enough was being done about illegal immigration.

“What’s the use of taking your shoes off at the airport when at the borders, anybody could walk in?” asked Gary Henriques, a 63-year-old retiree who moved from San Jose to Hollister a few years back to get “six times the house for half the money.”

But for the most part people tended to agree with Republican Bradley Tremblay, 50, a produce broker in San Juan Bautista, who cited an improved business climate, a state budget in surplus -- for now, anyway -- and a willingness in Sacramento to deal with the state’s infrastructure problems.

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“After swallowing some tough pills,” he said, California seems to be doing better.

Much of the credit is given to Schwarzenegger. He is no longer seen as politically superhuman, as he was in the recall, and he may never be seen that way again. Even fans of the governor say there are times he has seemed overmatched by the job.

“I think he’s run into a lot of things that he probably didn’t anticipate he’d run into,” said Rick Ito, a 38-year-old middle school principal and Democrat, who said Schwarzenegger has failed to rein in the “powerful special interests” in Sacramento the way he promised. But, Ito went on, “I feel like he’s trying his best.”

Like their fellow Californians, San Benito County voters overwhelmingly rejected the governor’s 2005 special election initiatives. But the anger and resentment so abundant during the campaign last year appear to have evaporated.

“He promised the people that if he couldn’t get the state government behind him, he would take it to the people, which he did do,” said Cilly Fisher, 79, a ticket-splitting Republican, who was getting an early start on Christmas decorations at San Juan Bautista’s Chamber of Commerce. “Whether it turned out to be a big mistake or not, he did what he promised.”

Several said they admired Schwarzenegger for having “taken his lumps,” as Democrat John Kane, a 53-year-old Hollister insurance broker, put it, and changing his style by moving toward the middle to work with Democrats who run the Legislature. In recent weeks, the governor and opposition lawmakers have agreed to increase the state minimum wage, make prescription drugs more affordable for low-income residents and reached a precedent-setting accord to reduce greenhouse gases.

“I think he realized that he couldn’t just sway the public with his charm,” said Kurt Fisher, 57, a Republican (“but not strongly so”) and retired public health specialist. “He came back to reality, and I think he’s changed a little bit and I think he’s getting some stuff done.”

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Most of the interviews were conducted before the flap over the governor’s unguarded comments about Sacramento lawmakers -- including a description of one Latina Republican as “very hot,” for which he apologized. None of those contacted afterward had changed their minds regarding the election.

“So much is made of all these small things, and not enough about the things that are important,” said Holmes, the Schwarzenegger-leaning Democrat.

Most people called Angelides a mystery, despite his having been on the statewide ballot seven times as he ran for treasurer and despite handily winning the Democratic nomination over Controller Steve Westly in June.

There were a few die-hard Democrats who said they would vote for Angelides out of partisan loyalty, just as there were reflexive Republicans backing Schwarzenegger.

“He has political experience, and you need that to get anything done in Sacramento,” Democrat Rebecca McGovern, a self-described “over 70” retiree, said of Angelides.

But the majority of those interviewed -- Democrat, Republican, independent -- were unable to identify Angelides without help. A few who came close mispronounced his name as Ack-a-ladies or Angelenos or Angeleedo.

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More seemed to have formed their opinion of the Democratic nominee from Schwarzenegger’s TV ads -- several mentioned spots showing Angelides walking backward -- than from the Democrat’s advertisements promoting himself. “They’ve been talking about him raising taxes,” said Republican Robert Angell, 78, a retired aerospace worker. “I don’t like that. I don’t have that much money to throw around.”

Others cited the attack advertising that Angelides ran in the primary against Westly -- who started the fight -- and suggested the acrid odor had yet to dissipate.

“I wouldn’t vote for either one of them for dogcatcher,” said independent Pat Larkin, 68, a Schwarzenegger voter and golf pro who sported a sweater from the San Juan Oaks Golf Club. “I have no use for it if they can’t talk about what they going to do, instead of how bad the other guy is.”

The response from Larkin and others suggests the challenge Angelides faces in the next two months as he seeks to corral voters like Robert Granse, a 58-year-old self-employed technical writer who stopped outside a Hollister supermarket to explain why, as a Democratic-leaning independent, he is still unsure how to vote in November.

“I don’t necessarily agree with all he’s proposed,” Granse said of Schwarzenegger. “But I can see where he’s going. If he just let loose of Bush’s strings a little bit and went his own way, he’d be just fine.”

That said, Angelides has failed to present “anything positive going forward,” Granse continued. “It’s always how badly someone else has done, and how this didn’t get done.”

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And what of Angelides’ assertion that Schwarzenegger has been too close to Bush?

It may be true, Granse said, but that won’t win his vote. “A simple slogan like that’s not going to make any difference,” he said.

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(BEGN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Bellwether

San Benito County has a striking record of matching the state’s overall election results.

San Benito and California

Nov. 1998 Governor

San Benito: Davis 57%

California: Davis 58%

San Benito: Lungren 38%

California: Lungren 38%

Nov. 2002 Governor

San Benito: Davis 49%

California: Davis 47%

San Benito: Simon 42%

California: Simon 42%

Oct. 2003 Recall

San Benito: Yes 55%; No 45%

California: Yes 55%; No 45%

Oct. 2003 Governor

San Benito: Schwarzenegger 49%

California: Schwarzenegger 49%

San Benito: Bustamante 32%

California: Bustamante 32%

San Benito: McClintock 14%

California: McClintock 14%

June 2006 Primary

Governor

San Benito: Schwarzenegger 90%

California: Schwarzenegger 90%

San Benito: Angelides 45%

California: Angelides 48%

San Benito: Westly 43%

California: Westly 43%

Prop. 81 (Library Bond Act)

San Benito: Yes 48%; No 52%

California: Yes 47%; No 53%

Prop. 82 (Tax Hike for Preschool)

San Benito: Yes 39%; No 61%

California: Yes 39%; No 61%

Source: California secretary of state

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mark.barabak@latimes.com

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