U.S. Has Fresh Hope for Mideast

Encouraged by the possibility of a more moderate Palestinian leadership replacing Yasser Arafat, the Bush administration is considering a new initiative to broker peace in the Middle East.

The death of the Palestinian leader would clear away what U.S. officials have long cited as the chief obstacle to greater involvement by the Bush administration. But even with a new face on the Palestinian leadership, significant hurdles would remain, officials emphasized.

Although the White House refused to deal with Arafat because of his failure to halt attacks on Israelis, it has supported the two Palestinian Authority leaders, Prime Minister Ahmed Korei and former Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas, who have emerged as Arafat’s most likely successors.

Arafat, 75, remained in a hospital near Paris on Saturday. Palestinian officials met in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank to display unity in the absence of the man who has been their rais, or chief, for decades.

With the U.S. election over, Arab and European allies are exerting pressure on President Bush to step up what most view as a stalled U.S. peace effort. British Prime Minister Tony Blair said last week that a Middle East settlement should be the highest priority of Bush’s second term. Blair will visit Washington this week.

Foreign diplomats said the public and private comments of administration officials even before the election had indicated that they intended to put new energy into the peace effort if Bush won reelection, in part to build support among Arabs for U.S. missions in Iraq and elsewhere in the region. In his first post-election news conference, Bush said Thursday that “we will continue to work for a free Palestinian state that’s at peace with Israel.”

U.S. officials said that the administration is eager for a new chance, but it faces a tough task.

Arafat’s death could spark violence, and radical groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad may challenge more moderate leaders for control, officials said. In addition, the power of the Palestinian central government has waned in recent years, and moderate new leaders must show they can control the population, U.S. officials said.

“I would warn against the perception that there’s a ripe opportunity, ready for the plucking,” said one U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “This is something that’s going to take time, even after Arafat’s gone.”

The official said that to best show support for moderate Palestinian forces, the administration would move in concert with Arab and European allies, and the United Nations. U.S. officials will be discussing the issues in a series of meetings with European and Arab leaders beginning this month.

“This kind of thing has to be done carefully, and more often with the help of the international community,” the official said. “U.S. support is a double-edged sword in the Arab world, and especially in the Palestinian territory.”

One Western diplomat, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, said there had been “clear signs that the administration is now giving this a top priority.”

For nearly two years, U.S. diplomats have been promoting an initiative known as the “road map” that calls for a series of increasing concessions by each side. But both the Israelis and the Palestinians have balked at the opening steps of the process, and it is widely seen as moribund.

Although Washington has not decided what kind of proposal to advance, diplomats say one immediate goal would be to strengthen the Palestinian moderates, especially by encouraging Israeli concessions aimed at winning the new leaders greater support from their people. That effort might include economic aid to improve the lives of impoverished Palestinians.

Another immediate U.S. objective would be to advance an international effort to give moderate Palestinians control of Gaza after Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s planned withdrawal of Israeli forces. Resistance from militant groups has prevented efforts by Palestinian allies, such as Egypt and Jordan, to strengthen the moderates.

Several senior Israeli officials have said that their government’s failure to support Abbas more when he was prime minister was a mistake that had hurt the moderates’ cause. One prominent Israeli said any new effort would require painful concessions to the Palestinians.

“In the post-Arafat era, it will be much easier to resume negotiations,” David Kimche, a former director-general of the Israeli Foreign Ministry, wrote in a commentary in weekend editions of the Jerusalem Post. “The key, however, will be our willingness to give up territory we conquered in 1967, minus the enclaves in which 70% to 80% of the settlers live. Without our acceptance of this fact, it will be as difficult to make peace with the successors of Arafat as it has been with the rais himself.”

A key question is whether Bush -- widely considered to be wary of the difficult Middle East peace issue -- will take a different view in the aftermath of his election victory. Some analysts have predicted that Bush would be less likely to worry that administration pressure on Israel would alienate evangelical U.S. supporters, who are strongly pro-Israel and an important part of his political base.

If Palestinian moderates initially are successful, “there will be more pressure on the administration, and more motivation by the administration, to do more,” said Robert Malley, who was special assistant to former President Clinton on Israeli-Palestinian issues.

Bush’s attitude may become clearer in the next several days, as the administration tries to resolve the politically explosive question of who might represent the U.S. government at Arafat’s funeral.

Administration hawks have regarded Arafat as being little different from Osama bin Laden, and may oppose sending any representative. But other officials may argue that sending a senior representative would show recognition of Arafat as a symbol of Palestinian identity.

After that, any major new American initiative probably would be delayed until next spring, some observers believe, in part because key U.S. officials -- possibly including Secretary of State Colin L. Powell -- may soon leave their posts.

Bush had called for Palestinians to select a new leadership, but “he has not helped them to do so,” said Martin Indyk, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel. Abbas was named prime minister in 2003. He tangled frequently with Arafat and left after four months.

“The United States and Israel did not do enough to show that he [Abbas] could deliver for his people,” Indyk, director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, said last week at a Brookings Institution conference. “In the Middle East you don’t often get a second chance. But this does provide a second chance.”

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Times staff writer Laura King in Jerusalem contributed to this report.