California’s U.S. Senate race may be a lot more unpredictable than expected, and that’s not good news for the Republicans in the race.
Recent opinion polls have consistently shown two Democrats, California Atty. Gen. Kamala Harris and Rep. Loretta Sanchez of Orange, in first and second place, respectively. Trailing behind, in varying order, have been three Republicans: Tom Del Beccaro and George “Duf” Sundheim, both former chairmen of the California Republican Party; and Silicon Valley businessman Ron Unz, who championed a 1998 initiative to end bilingual education.
But those poll results are misleading, since voters surveyed were only asked to rank those candidates, said Paul Mitchell, vice president of consulting firm Political Data Inc.
There are a total of 35 people running for Senate , including 12 Republicans. The Times' editorial board met with many of those candidates and asked them what issues are top priorities for them.
When Capitol Weekly conducted a web-based poll that included all 34 candidates, the results among the Republicans were very different.
Former state Sen. Phil Wyman of Tehachapi, who unsuccessfully ran for attorney general in 2014, topped the field of GOP candidates, coming in third overall. Trailing behind him was Greg Conlon, a retired accountant from Atherton, who lost a race for state treasurer in 2014. Unz finished a sliver behind Conlon.
“Everybody has been polling the five candidates we know, and that has been the problem,” said Mitchell, who assisted with the survey. “The fact is that regular voters have almost no information about who these people are. It’ll be like throwing darts at a dart board.”
Granted, all the Republicans finished in the low single digits and were all within the poll’s margin of error, Mitchell said. And almost half the people surveyed said they were undecided.
Still, the survey indicates that support among the GOP candidates was so splintered that it increases the odds that Harris and Sanchez may be the top two finishers in the June 7 primary, Mitchell said.
Mitchell said Harris and Sanchez probably did well because of their higher name recognition among voters and the titles listed under their names on the ballot: Harris is listed as “Attorney General of California” and Sanchez as “California congresswoman.”
Mitchell said that while Del Beccaro, Sundheim and Unz are well known to political insiders and have raised the most money among the Republicans in the race, most California voters have never heard of them — just like many of the other candidates on the Senate ballot.
