For context about predictions of major entertainment events, Duff Goldman from “Ace of Cakes” correctly predicted the result of this year’s
Likewise, making Oscar predictions can be a bit ridiculous, as frequently the name of the game is predicting what everyone else predicts and going rogue on just a few. Thankfully, this year’s Oscar race is more interesting than usual. Several big categories (Best Director, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor, in particular) are far from guaranteed, unlike the Best Supporting Actress category, which will but shouldn’t go to
So let’s take a look at the majority pick for the winner, my estimation of its accuracy and the surprises I’d welcome.
Majority: Initial expectations of a “
Accurate? Yep, and while “Argo” is not my favorite of the noms (I prefer “Beasts of the Southern Wild” and “Zero Dark Thirty”), I’ll be glad to see
Surprise: A presenter comments that the Academy probably didn’t understand “The Master,” and that’s why it was snubbed for Best Picture. The presenter gets in trouble; the Academy admits he/she is right.
Majority: It’s up in the air between Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Jessica Chastain (“Zero Dark Thirty”) and Emmanuelle Riva (“Amour”), the oldest-ever nominee at age 85.
Accurate? Absolutely. Naomi Watts (“The Impossible”) won’t win, and 9-year-old Quvenzhane Wallis, so good in “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” will have to wait until she hits double digits for her Oscar.
Surprise: I prefer Chastain doesn’t win and would be happy with a Lawrence victory. But I was especially impressed by Riva, who could be a way for voters to reward the Academy’s love for “Amour” with more than just nominations and a Best Foreign Language Film win.
Surprise: Day-Lewis acknowledges
Best Supporting Actor
Majority: There isn’t one, which is awesome. All of the nominees have won before, which isn’t as awesome for those of us who like rooting for the underdog.
Accurate? Alan Arkin won’t win for “Argo” and I don’t think
Surprise: Whatever you thought of “The Master” or “Django Unchained,” you have to admit
Best Supporting Actress
Majority: Anne Hathaway, “Les Miserables”
Accurate? 100 percent. This is a perfect example of buzz turning into certainty. Hathaway’s pretty good in the role, but has a few over-acted moments. Like nearly all her performances, Hathaway hits it as hard as she can. But even for a character reaching an emotional peak it’s too much.
Surprise: In the biggest Oscar shock of all time, Amy Adams (“The Master”) wins instead. Her speech is neither rambling nor annoying.
Majority: Most people say Spielberg, though it’s not a lock.
Accurate? I don’t think so. In a year when the category was very surprising, I’m thinking (hoping) the winner could be a surprise, too. Maybe the Academy, which clearly loves “Silver Linings Playbook,” goes with David O. Russell?
Surprise: I’d love if Benh Zeitlin, whom no one expected to be nominated for “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” shocked the world and showed that young filmmakers with original movies can win a category that doesn’t always favor that sort of thing.
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