Murders drive down life expectancy in Mexico

Male life expectancy in Mexico decreased between 2005 and 2010 as homicide rates soared, according to a study published in the January edition of Health Affairs.

Researchers led by Jose Manuel Aburto of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and UCLA’s Dr. Hiram BeltranSanchez found that the life expectancy of males ages 15 to 50 declined by 0.6 percent over the period, from 72.5 years to a little under 72 years.

“Violence in Mexico has spread throughout the entire country, so our findings suggest that homicides need to be addressed from a public health perspective to improve peoples’ lives,” BeltranSanchez said.

“The impact of homicides on the average years of life in Mexico is probably worse than we report, because other studies indicate a large number of missing individuals and many deaths that were never recorded,” he said.

Life expectancy in Mexico climbed steadily throughout most of the 20th century and the positive trend continued for the first few years of the new century.

The study determined that the surge in homicides began in 2006, when Mexico’s thennew president, Felipe Calderon, militarized the struggle against drug trafficking.

By 2010, the murder rate had more than doubled, from 9.5 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants to 22 per 100,000.

The impact on longevity was greatest in northern states ravaged by the drug war, such as Chihuahua, Sinaloa and Durango, where male life expectancy was reduced by three years.

Though much smaller, there was also a decline in life expectancy for men in states where the cartels were not as large a factor.

While female life expectancy increased overall during the period, women in Chihuahua saw a decline of six months, the researchers found.

The group now plans to examine the impact of homicides on life expectancy in other Latin American countries.

“The homicide rate in Mexico is lower than in other Latin American countriesfor example Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, Colombia and Brazil,” BeltranSanchez said. “One would expect homicides to have a greater impact in these countries. There is an urgent need to document the impact of homicides on the Latin American population.”