Much of Florida woke up in the cone of error, as Tropical Storm Isaac is projected to approach the state from the south on Monday – as a hurricane.
At 8 a.m. on Wednesday, the system was in the Atlantic about 210 miles east of Guadeloupe, sprinting west at 19 mph with sustained winds of 45 mph.
Under the lasted forecast, Isaac would move over southwest Haiti on Saturday and southeast Cuba on Sunday before emerging in the Florida Straits.
The system then is projected to approach the Keys early Monday with sustained winds of 90 mph, just shy of Category 2 status.
If that forecast holds, much of the state would start feeling Isaac’s fringes on Sunday.
While the models have come more into agreement with that prediction, the National Hurricane Center notes that its average five-day forecast track error is about 260 miles – meaning the projected path still could shift.
Although the system has yet to show signs of any “significant intensification,” it still is projected to strengthen into a hurricane on Thursday while in the Caribbean south of Puerto Rico, senior hurricane specialist Stacy Stewart of the National Hurricane Center said.
Tropical storm warnings have been posted for most of the Lesser Antilles and a hurricane watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the British Virgin Islands.
The system could produce up to 8 inches of rain and a storm surge of 3 feet above normal tide levels on those islands.
The hurricane center also is monitoring a low-pressure system in the eastern Atlantic, saying it likely will strengthen into a tropical depression or storm on Wednesday.
Models indicate that system might curve out to sea without threatening the U.S. coastline. The next named storm will be Joyce.