Where did El Niño go - and should Lagunans brace for fire?

In a hilly, seaside city where fires and flooding are always in the back of people’s minds, how confused must Laguna Beach residents be with this schizophrenic weather?

Early last week crews were busy cleaning up fallen tree branches and leaves after rain and strong winds rolled through town, leaving chilly temperatures in the storm’s wake.

But on Monday, it felt like summer as a heat wave had enveloped Southern California, leaving the air dry and many people wondering: Are expected storms related to El Niño still on the way?

Suddenly in Laguna, thoughts of filling up sandbags to help withstand slides have given way to concerns about wildfires.

“Whenever it’s 80 degrees, people aren’t thinking about filling sandbags,” said Jordan Villwock, Laguna’s emergency operations coordinator, noting that the demand for the bags that the city offers has waned.

But he advises: “It’s always important to know that with El Niño, things could change quickly.”

El Niño is a condition that occurs when warmer ocean temperatures trigger a change in weather patterns.

The Los Angeles Times reported this week that the zone of warm ocean water is particularly large and persistent, and the movement of warm air above it traveled farther north than expected.

And Bill Patzert, a climatologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge, told The Times that this year’s El Niño would need to weaken in order to reemerge over Southern California.

Experts say this is likely to happen, meaning strong rains possibly later this month and in March.

Alex Tardy, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, said don’t be lulled into complacency.

“Every El Niño is different, but when it comes to the current El Niño, this one is as strong as we have ever seen,” Tardy said, echoing statements he made in November during a storm preparedness workshop at the Laguna Beach Community & Susi Q Center.

Surface ocean temperatures along the equator are 5 degrees warmer than normal for the current rainy season, which began in October and runs through April, said Tardy, who called the increase “a huge number.”

Laguna must receive nearly 8 additional inches of rain by the end of April to meet its normal level for the entire season, Tardy reported. If storms drop similar amounts of rain as during two previous El Niño winters, Laguna would meet and exceed its average mark.

In 1982-83, the city received nearly 7 inches of rain through January before more than 16 1/2 inches fell from February to April. In 1997-98, Laguna tallied more than 13 inches of rain through January, and received more than 19 1/2 inches from February to April.

As far as the fire danger goes, Laguna Beach Fire Chief Jeff LaTendresse said the city is constantly aware of the threat, explaining that certain types of brush can dry out in direct sunlight in an hour.

“Fuel is drying out every day, and there is no real recovery [because of low humidity] at night,” he said.

Matt Lawson, co-chairman of the city’s Emergency Disaster Preparedness Committee, said he and his wife are prepared for either scenario, fire or flooding. They have bags filled with necessities such as water and nonperishable food to carry with them if they need to flee.

Also, they park their cars facing the street for a swift escape if necessary.

“We used to think the fire season was July through October or early November, but it has morphed into a 12-month fire season,” Lawson said. “The weather has gotten more variable and less benign. We need to be prepared for natural and man-made hazards.”

Back to the sandbags.

Laguna residents can still pick up free, pre-filled bags at the Aliso Beach Park inland lot, while the city has 700 bags ready to hand out at the Act V lot in Laguna Canyon if heavy rain is forecast.

Residents may pick up unfilled sand bags year-round at each of Laguna’s four fire stations and fill them on their own.

A how-to video on filling a sand bag can be viewed at lagunabeachcity.net.