No one will say who paid for poll
“With all eyes on the 2016 California primary June 6, it was odd to receive polling results regarding a “hypothetical” congressional race for 2018.
But that’s what showed up in my inbox.
According to the email, the poll completed May 5 was conducted by Lewis Consulting Group. The president of LCG is former Assemblyman and California state Sen. John Lewis.
“Three hundred likely June 2018 voters” were surveyed about a “hypothetical match-up” for the 48th Congressional District among Republican and current U.S. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (Costa Mesa), former O.C. Republican Party Chairman Scott Baugh and Democrat Sue Savary.
Savary and Rohrabacher are facing off in the 2016 election, so wouldn’t it make more sense to poll this year’s race?
Probably, but this is O.C. politics we’re talking about, where hidden agendas and even stranger “friendships” abound.
From the get-go I had questions about this poll. Particularly when it stated “a number of questions were asked in the survey,” yet only a few were included in the email. So I had no idea what questions framed this survey.
The poll stated, “ Rohrabacher has little to fear from Baugh,” as it showed poll numbers in a hypothetical election with Rohrabacher receiving 52%, Savary, 22%, and Baugh, 6%.
But the poll gave no indication whether this question was asked of Republicans or Democrats.
The survey also dealt with name recognition. Among Republicans, Rohrabacher scored 52% to Baugh’s 13%.
Ten percent of those polled hadn’t heard of Rohrabacher, and 53% apparently didn’t know Baugh, which is strange since he was party chairman.
As I looked at the other questions it became clear to me the survey was slanted in Rohrabacher’s favor.
Was it meant to slam Baugh, as it attempted to “gauge the electorates’ evaluation of possible potential trouble spots” for him?
It states Baugh was a former lobbyist with a “no bid lobby contract with the county,” a statement Baugh tells me is just plain false.
“The bottom line is that at no time was I involved in a no-bid contract,” he said. “Moreover, I have not received any compensation directly or indirectly from the County of Orange since I stopped lobbying for the County in Sacramento approximately 10 years ago.”
I called Lewis, asking why he focused on a hypothetical race, rather than a real one taking place in 2016?
Lewis said it was “topical,” and there had been “press speculation.”
In February I wrote about Baugh pulling papers to run in 2016, if Rohrabacher didn’t seek re-election. The OC Register did too.
Controversy arose, as Baugh continued to raise money, about $500,000 for a 2018 bid, even though Rohrabacher decided to run this year.
Baugh defends fundraising, saying Rohrabacher was clear in telling him he wasn’t planning to seek re-election in 2018 and even encouraged him to start fundraising this year.
Jon Fleischman, a long-time friend of Baugh, Rohrabacher and OC Supervisor Michele Steel and her husband Shawn, confirmed this conversation on his blog, the Flash Report, in April.
Fleischman reported that if Steel runs for Congress in 2018, Rohrabacher will most likely endorse her, rather than Baugh.
Polling isn’t cheap. A poll of this nature could cost thousands.
So who would spend this kind of dough on something so speculative?
Lewis wouldn’t say, but admitted the poll hadn’t garnered much interest, except from me.
Baugh takes exception, saying, “Lewis is not a pollster; he’s a county lobbyist who relies on votes” from OC supervisors for his livelihood.
Baugh tells me it’s “standard operating procedure for a political smear to create a false narrative and then promote that false narrative through a surrogate,” which is what he feels is the purpose of this poll.
“Nobody is fooled by what’s going on here, and frankly the voters are sick of these insider games,” he said. “The culprits behind this dirty poll and the lies in it should crawl out from under their rock.”
So who could be under the rock?
It’s too hard to tell, but one thing we do know is there is interest in some key Orange County political seats.
So let’s play hypothetical political musical chairs for a moment, since Lewis opened that door.
If Steel goes for Rohrabacher’s seat, will the congressman then go for supervisor or just retire after 30 years?
As a congressman, he makes about $175,000 annually, not counting the perks of travel, etc.
His wife, Rhonda, works for him and takes in about $60,000 per year. So they could pull in about $250,000.
If Rohrabacher retires, he’d make about half that, but if he took retirement and a 5th District supervisor’s salary, which Ballotpedia.org rates at about $163,000, including benefits, he’s got it made.
It’s all a bit politically incestuous for my taste, but hey, these folks all claim to be long-time “friends,” but with friends like these, who needs enemies?
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BARBARA VENEZIA lives in Newport Beach. She can be reached atbvontv1@gmail.com. Listen to her weekly radio segment on “Sunday Brunch with Tom and Lynn” from 11 a.m. to noon on KOCI/101.5 FM