Yes, the Orioles are still the only remaining playoff contender with a negative run differential (minus-10), but as the O's continue to pile up wins into late September, they're becoming one prognosticating favorite to make the postseason for the first time in 15 years.
According to coolstandings.com, which uses various simulations to devise the likelihood of teams advancing to the playoffs, the Orioles have a 90.2 percent change of making the postseason. Only the Rangers (99.5) and
But despite trailing the first-place Yankees by just a half game entering play tonight, the Orioles have just a 28.5 percent chance of winning the
By comparison, the struggling
The site also projects the Orioles to play near .500 ball for their final 13 games of the season, projecting the O's, now 85-64, to finish with 91.7 wins and 70.3 losses.
Here's an interesting caveat. In computing the projections, the site uses a variation of Bill James' Pythagorean method, which hinges greatly on run differential.
For example, James' Pythagorean win-loss for the Orioles this season is currently 73-76.