Now the Tough Will Go Shopping

Now that the small fry have had their fun, it’s the grown-ups’ turn.

Last week’s draft was designed to rebuild the lowly, but in the free-agent period that begins July 16, the big ones devour the small ones, as is expected to be the case when the Spurs and Lakers start shopping, or they get turned into small ones, which may befall the twice-defending East champion New Jersey Nets.

Not since the summer of 1996, when Shaquille O’Neal moved west and reconfigured the league’s competitive balance, has there been such a star-spangled class.

Even excluding San Antonio’s Tim Duncan, who has made it clear he isn’t going anywhere, that leaves Jason Kidd, Jermaine O’Neal, Karl Malone, Gary Payton, Gilbert Arenas, Brad Miller, Michael Olowokandi, P.J. Brown, Scottie Pippen, Rasho Nesterovic, Alonzo Mourning and Juwan Howard.

This summer, however, will be entirely different from ‘96, when several teams were under the salary cap, which zoomed up annually.

Last season, the cap not only didn’t increase for the first time, it shrank from $42 million to $40 million. With the TV package set up on a flat annual basis, the cap won’t go up much this summer, if it goes up at all.

Only the Spurs, Denver Nuggets and Clippers have meaningful space.

Of course, the Clippers won’t bid on anyone else’s players, the question being whether they will bid on their own -- Olowokandi plus restricted free agents Elton Brand, Lamar Odom, Corey Maggette and Andre Miller, on whom they hold the right of first refusal.

The Spurs have $14 million in cap space, enough for a maximum starting salary of $12 million for one premier player, like, say, Kidd.

The Nuggets can get $18 million under, enough for Arenas -- who has made no secret of his interest, and vice versa -- and another marquee player, if they can persuade one to come.

Anyone else who wants to move will have to do so for the $4.7-million middle-class exception, which means there are going to be some bargains.

Starting today, teams are allowed to talk to players, but no one can be signed until July 16. After that, it could be wild, with the additional possibility of sign-and-trade deals involving other high-priced players whose teams want to create cap space or escape next season’s luxury tax, such as Boston’s Antoine Walker, Miami’s Eddie Jones and Brian Grant and New York’s Latrell Sprewell.

As Laker fans know, your team needed a summer like this. If there are any Clipper fans left, your team obviously didn’t.

But ready or not, here it comes.

Biggest Dogs

San Antonio -- The Spurs are expected to pursue Kidd, who has signaled his own interest after months of insisting he’d return to the Nets. He says he’ll also visit Denver and Dallas.

In real life, it comes down to the Spurs or Nets, and right now it looks like the Spurs.

Not that this is a no-brainer for the Spurs, who just won a title, already have a rising young point guard in Tony Parker and no longer intimidate anyone up front with David Robinson gone. However, for better or worse, this looks like what they’re doing.

Indiana -- The Pacers are working on a sign-and-trade that would send Al Harrington and Austin Croshere to Milwaukee for Payton. Otherwise, they just want to keep their old gang together, which means getting O’Neal, Brad Miller and Reggie Miller under contract.

Lakers -- Payton and Malone say they want to come, so the first question is, do the Lakers want a mammoth, if aging, power forward to fill their traditional hole, or a guard who at 35 is still close to being in his prime?

Laker officials worry about how well Malone will fit in as he pursues Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s scoring record and will have to hear him insist he can be a third wheel before pursuing him.

In any case, this is a team that won three consecutive titles, punted last season and still almost made it four, doing it all with two superstars and 10 helpers. Now it gets a third major piece.

There is also a long list of cheap help, such as the Clippers’ Eric Piatkowski, a sharpshooter with the court sense to fit into the triangle, who, friends say, would love to come for the $1.5-million veterans’ minimum.

Hopefuls

Denver -- The Nuggets are hoping to rebuild from Square 1, around Arenas and rookie Carmelo Anthony, but they’ll have trouble luring any big-name free agents, even if Kidd does pay a courtesy recruiting visit. Payton, for one, has said he wouldn’t go there.

With former Clipper personnel director Jeff Weltman there, they may make a run at Olowokandi, whose price has dropped but may still be the best big man available.

Dallas -- Hyperactive owner Mark Cuban, the best friend any player seeking leverage ever had, thinks he’s in the chase for Kidd. On a less delusional front, he’s also expected to pursue Mourning.

Orlando -- The team that started Shawn Kemp at center and Pat Garrity at power forward much of the season is looking to upgrade its front line, with the usual suspects: Olowokandi, Brown, Howard or Mourning.

Detroit -- Restless Larry Brown is there now so the Pistons will be looking to make moves.

New York -- As usual, the Knicks are trying to dump their overpriced little people, such as Sprewell, for big people and can always be counted on to do something desperate.

Houston -- New Coach Jeff Van Gundy wants Sprewell.

Miami -- Coach Pat Riley is looking for a way to dump the $10 million-plus salaries of Jones and Grant to clear cap space for next summer, when Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant and Stephon Marbury could hit the market.

Minnesota -- They’ve already gotten on the board in a big way, taking Sam Cassell off the hands of the Bucks, who are starting over. If they can keep Nesterovic and bring in another big man, they might even get past the first round.

The Peanut Gallery

Boston, Toronto, et al. -- In the new landscape, going over the $52-million luxury-tax threshold not only means paying a dollar-for-dollar tax, but also missing out on the huge chunk of rebated cash, which this season will be $8 million a team.

Thus, some teams that are already at or near the threshold say they’ll sit out this summer, making the market even tighter for the star players.

Facing Extinction

New Jersey -- If Kidd leaves the Nets, they’re done, and, having failed to build upon their success on the court in his two seasons, may be through in North Jersey.

Golden State -- The Warriors looked like a rising team but they didn’t lock up Arenas, who broke out in his second season and is now a free agent but doesn’t have Larry Bird rights. Thus, because they’re over the cap, they can offer him only a deal starting at $4.6 million. His agent, Dan Fegan, says Arenas wants to be paid now and would gladly go to Denver.

If Arenas leaves, as he seems about to, the Warriors’ souffle collapses.

Clippers -- Owner Donald T. Sterling wouldn’t let Olowokandi return if he played for nothing. However, Sterling is expected to match offers for Brand, Odom and Maggette, who may or may not be open to staying.

If they wish to leave, they can accept one-year deals, making them totally free next summer. Miller, however, wants out and they’re not keen to keep him, so that’s a question mark.

In any case, Clipper tradition either turns on a dime this summer, or this is the start of their new dark ages.