USC would be No. 4 in first BCS standings

USC fans who can't wait until Sunday for the first release of the first Bowl Championship Series standings . . . don't have to.

If the BCS standings came out today, USC would be No. 4, two heartbeats from the No. 2 position necessary to qualify for this year's national-title game.

Surprised?

Despite a sloppy performance against Arizona State, it was a terrific weekend for the Trojans, who moved up five places to No. 4 in the USA Today coaches' poll and three places to No. 5 in the Harris index.

Those two polls, along with a computer component, are used in the BCS standings formula. The top two teams in the final BCS release on Dec. 7 will play for the national championship.

Sam Chi, who operates an Internet site called BCS Guru, has enough raw data in hand to nail the BCS figures down nearly to the number.

His BCS top 10, in order: Texas, Alabama, Penn State, USC, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Florida, Georgia and Utah.

The only missing component in producing a completely accurate BCS formula is the data from Peter Wolfe, one of the six computer operators. Wolfe's first standings are released in conjunction with the official standings.

With USC playing this week at Washington State, which has given up 60 or more points in three Pacific 10 Conference losses already this season, the Trojans are almost certain to debut in the BCS top five on Sunday.

Most surprising, perhaps, is that USC is No. 4 in the unofficial BCS computer index. Chi doesn't think a weakened Pac-10 this year will hurt the Trojans in the computers. He says USC needs to worry more about dropping in the polls.

A key game for Trojans watchers will be Oct. 25, when No. 3 Penn State plays at No. 12 Ohio State.

"Why, of course, the road to another USC championship goes right through . . . Columbus," Chi stated.

If Penn State beats Michigan this weekend to get to 8-0, USC fans will be rooting hard for Ohio State to defeat Joe Paterno's team the following weekend.

"Every Ohio State victory is a USC victory, as far as the BCS race goes," Chi says.

The Trojans defeated the Buckeyes, 35-3, this season.

Ohio State over Penn State might leave only Texas and Alabama ahead of the Trojans, and those schools play tougher schedules and are members of conferences, the Big 12 and Southeastern, that stage conference title games.

chris.dufresne@latimes.com