I'm happy to report that I was wrong and, thanks to the power of the internet, I was corrected in record time. I doubt The Smoking Gun has ever solved anything this complex, this fast.

A few hours ago I posted about the possible scenarios that would take USC to the BCS National Championship game and calculated that the Trojans could only make it in 0.24% of the possible outcomes. The scenarios were correct. The math? Not so much. Turns out that in a land of hypotheticals and coin flips, USC has better than a 50% shot.

Several of you smelled something fishy. Fortunately, a USC graduate student named Anthony Christodoulou cleared the air. When in doubt, email an engineer!

"There are really only 8 games of any importance that are out of SC's control, not 11," explained Anthony. Why? "The Big 12 championship is one game, not three (it doesn't matter who plays in it) and you said yourself that Alabama/Auburn doesn't matter. That means you have 2^8 = 256 possible outcomes."

That's a big step down from the 2,048 I suggested. I also neglected the fact that slipping ahead of either the SEC or Big 12 champ would render the scenarios in the other conference irrelevant, since USC would already be in the title game.

He broke it down in several tables (they don't fit here, but email me if you want them) and explained what the odds really look like from a mathematical perspective, assuming USC leaps any two-loss team:

"131 outcomes of 256 games actually result in a USC appearance the championship ... In other words, if all of these teams were evenly matched, USC would be most likely in. Nobody thinks Baylor, Texas A&M, The Citadel, Missouri, or FSU are nearly evenly matched with their opponents, of course, so if you give each of those 5 teams a 25% chance to win (Mizzou probably has more, but the rest of the teams probably have less), and estimate that the other 3 games are evenly matched, the probability drops to about 28%."

All this depends on USC running the table against arch rivals Notre Dame and UCLA, and Anthony pointed out that 25% might be generous odds for some of the underdogs. Before you rush off to Vegas, remember that 64 of the 131 scenarios depend on Florida losing to The Citadel (a Division 2 school with a 4-7 record) for the first time in history and 30 depend on Baylor beating Texas Tech (which last happened in 1995).

One more caveat: five of the outcomes that place USC in the title game depend on the Trojans winning a popularity contest in the BCS end-of-days scenario. That's where voters would have to chose between an 11-1 USC team, an 11-2 Big 12 champion Mizzou, and a pair of 11-1 Big 12 teams that were shut out of the conference championship game. As explained in this post, USC isn't getting enough style points for that.

The final 32 scenarios depend on Florida State upsetting Florida, then a two-loss Florida upsetting Alabama. Even that could lead to some voter turmoil.

Thanks again to Anthony, who gets the final word: "Fight on Florida, fight on Mizzou!"

-- Adam Rose

Matt Cassel (QB, New England) had the biggest game of his career and was impressive even in defeat. Call it a moral victory. He piled up 400 yards on 30-of-51 passing with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions. He added 62 yards on 8 carries, making him the first NFL player to gain 400 yards throwing and 60 yards receiving in the same game. He led the Pats back from an 18 point deficit at halftime, but they eventually fell 34-31 in overtime. No worries. The best game of his career was enough to win over the Sports Guy.

Lofa Tatupu (LB, Seattle) made 9 tackles in a 26-20 loss to Arizona.

LenDale White (RB, Tennessee) carried 14 times for 52 yards in a 24-14 victory over Jacksonville.

Terrell Thomas (CB, NY Giants) had a career-high 5 tackles, one for a loss, in a 30-10 win over Baltimore.

Football players like to get physical. Even Olivia Newton-John liked to get physical. But this is the BCS era. Let's get technical.

Following up on this weekend's commentary about USC's (non-existent) hopes of playing for the BCS Championship game, I hacked into the BCS computers and calculated all the possible outcomes.

[NOTE: The following math was quite a bit off, though all the scenarios remain the same. Click here for a post that better explains the numbers.]

Assuming the Trojans run the table, they have less than a one-quarter-of-one-percent-chance of making the BCS Championship Game. And that's before weighing in obvious things that Vegas would consider. If you think Texas Tech will beat Baylor (hint: it will), the hope gets much slimmer. But, hey, maybe the Citadel can beat Florida. In 2080.

The BCS rankings came out yesterday and they're identical to last week, at least at the top:

1. Alabama (11-0)
2. Texas Tech (10-0)
3. Texas (10-1)
4. Florida (9-1)
5. Oklahoma (9-1)
6. USC (9-1)

What boxes out the Trojans is that the five teams ahead of them all play in the same two leagues and have a conference championship game. Even though they might beat up on each other in the home stretch, at least two should to wind up with a "prettier" finish than USC. If I've done my math right (you're welcome to check), there are 11 games or potential games that are out of USC's control resulting in 2,048 scenarios. Of those, a whopping six could get USC into the BCS title game, with the Trojans jumping a mountain of two-loss teams. Again, this assumes Trojan victories over Notre Dame and UCLA.

If you hit any of these parlays in Vegas, drinks are on you. For the rest of your life.

SCENARIO 1: SEC swamps itself, a.k.a. USC's best hope

• Florida loses to the Citadel and/or Florida State.
• Florida beats Alabama.
• Note: Even if Alabama loses to Auburn, it will be a one-loss SEC Champ if it beats Florida -- so it would probably go ahead of USC on "style points."
• FINAL RECORDS: SEC champ Florida (10-3 or 11-2), Alabama (12-1 or 11-2 depending on Auburn game).

You can hope against hope.

You can beg and plead for a playoff.

But you can't watch USC play for the BCS National Championship this season.

Sure, it's still technically possible. It's also technically possible for Pac-10 officials to call a perfect game. Despite the Trojans' explosive second half in a 45-23 victory over Stanford, it was too little, too late. USC walked onto the Farm with a sliver of a chance of landing a BCS bid. Mizzou wins the Big 12, the SEC swamps itself and a backdoor opens up. With enough style points, USC walks through.

But it took only 30 minutes for the Trojans to lock themselves out. By halftime Stanford had proved that Oregon State was no fluke. Teams can run against USC. For a while. And a while is a little too long. Defense is all that sets USC apart, and suddenly the defense wasn't as impressive.

Maybe all those East Coast voters will just glance at the final score, figuring the 45-23 victory wasn't as close as they think -- heck, six of those points came in garbage time. Unfortunately for the Trojans, this game wasn't past anybody's bedtime. And USC failed to pile on the style points. How many do you really think they can earn against their final two opponents, Notre Dame and UCLA?

"Style points" is an ugly phrase around USC right now. The BCS era rewards teams that play pretty seasons with sexy offenses. The Trojans have had neither. What they do have is a bone-crushing defense that appeases purists and MMA fans. Heck, even the offense likes to punch people in the mouth (figuratively speaking). When defenders try to tackle Mark Sanchez, it's never clear who's going to walk away with the bigger hit.

Defense used to win championships. Then came the BCS. In any other sport, you wouldn't want to bet against USC taking home the title. On a neutral field, with time to prepare, the Trojans are the favorite. Don't believe it? Ask a sports book in Vegas. ESPN's Chris Fowler did earlier this week, and found that USC would be picked by 1.5 over Florida, 2.5 over Oklahoma, 4 over Texas Tech, 5.5 over Texas, and a whopping 11 over current BCS No. 1 Alabama.

Whoever does lift the crystal ball will be elated and justly feel that they have nothing to prove. But if they had their druthers, you know a real competitor always wants to play against the best so they can beat the best. This year, some may question who really was the "best" at the end of the season.

USC could face one of those teams in the Orange Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, or -- gulp -- Holiday Bowl. Yes, the lovely Holiday Bowl in San Diego, which welcomes the Pac-10's second place team every December. By winning out the Trojans guarantee a tie for the conference title (potentially their seventh straight), but if Oregon State wins out they go to the Rose Bowl thanks to its upset over USC in Corvallis.

Don't think that could happen? At halftime, the O.C. Register's Michael Lev went to the Holiday Bowl website to see if it would interfere with his family's own holiday plans. It's on Dec. 29. The good news is that at this rate, it could be better than any BCS game.

The whole situation is a shame, because otherwise this has been another spectacular year for the Trojans and a lot of fun to watch. Expectations were astronomical, as usual, and one major slip up left them with nobody to blame but themselves. And maybe the lack of a playoff.

There's always the Rose Bowl, where the Penn State is the likely Big 10 representative. Whoopie. If the Beavers tank (after this weekend's victory over Cal, only Arizona and Oregon stand in the way), that's where the Trojans will likely play on Jan. 1. It's familiar territory. Another appearance would make it five of the last six years.

Playing in their fourth straight Rose Bowl would also tie a record already shared by Ohio State and ... USC. There's a scary though. Let's hope that's not the pairing.

-- Adam Rose

• This was the first game all year that a team scored after a David Buehler kickoff. The Cardinal did it three times.
• USC had -4 net rushing yards at one point in the second quarter. Yes, that's a minus sign before the four.
• Stanford's Stadium is a couple of years old, but this was the first game I've been to since the complete overhaul. It's immaculate. I'd say it qualifies as a shrine to football. It has everything money can buy (seriously -- granite counter tops for the press to work on). I can't say I had a good experience logistically, but at least it was aesthetically pleasing.
• With the first sellout in the new stadium's history, I don't think Stanford fans were outnumbered but they may have been out-shouted by Trojans. The record crowd was announced at 50,425.
• Brian Cushing's hit on Tavita Pritchard late in the first half will make highlight reels for a long time to come. Ow. Ow. Ow.
• Pac-10 officials disgraced themselves. Again. How does a USC player rip a Stanford player's helmet off by the facemask and get no flag? Disgusting. It's not like that's a "letter of the rule vs. spirit of the rule" situation. You've gotta' protect these guys.
• That reminds me, today's Minnesota-Wisconsin game featured one of the scariest moments I've ever seen on a football field. Badger wideout Kyle Jefferson took a nasty hit and was on the ground for several minutes. An ambulance came on the field to take him away. He managed to give a thumbs up before disappearing from view, and reports are coming out that tests results are "very encouraging." A quick search on YouTube reveals that Jefferson seems to be a magnet for hard hits.
• Vidal Hazelton made a catch tonight -- his first since the opener against Virginia.
• In the third quarter, the referee made an announcement that was mostly unintelligible, except for one word. It's not his fault that the PA made him sound like Charlie Brown's teacher, but it doesn't instill confidence when the only thing you hear is "however."
• How about those legendary Pete Carroll halftime adjustments? After moving the ball at will against USC in the first half, the Cardinal started the second half with drives of 9, 6 and 2 yards.
• With all those Bush-McKnight comparisons, does anybody remember guys being able to catch Bush in the open field? Maybe it's time to put that one to bed. A better one might be C.J. Gable, who hurdled a Stanford defender a-la Reggie. Early in the year I wasn't very high on Gable compared with McKnight and Stafon Johnson, but he's won me over. If I'm ranking these guys right now, it's 1-Gable, 2-Johnson, 3-McKnight. Gable also galloped for a 93-yard touchdown on a Stanford kickoff, the first time the Farm has surrendered one since 2002.
• Stanford rushing yards by quarter: First - 106, Second - 50, Third - 18, Fourth - 28. Again, notice the halftime adjustments. It adds up to 202 yards, besting Oregon State's 176 as the most surrendered by USC on the ground this year. Stanford's 367 total yards and 23 first down were also tops by a Trojan opponent this season.
• Quarterbacks Mark Sanchez, Tavita Prichard and Alex Loukas (plus Ronald Johnson) combined for a monster game, going 25-of-45 for 301 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. Whoops, no sharing stats allowed. OK, this was definitely a ground war. USC had 304 yards rushing to Stanford's 234.
• Special teams not only won the momentum game for USC, they also produced jaw-dropping numbers. The Trojans returned four kickoffs for 230 yards -- an average of 57.5 yards. Talk about good field position!
• Stanford led in time of possession, 18:59 to 11:01, in the first half. USC led in the second half, 17:17 to 12:43.
• LSU was almost defrocked by Troy tonight. The Tigers always wanted a chance to beat the Trojans, but they could barely get past the other Trojans.
• Postgame observation: When faced with difficult obstacles like a door, Rey Maualuga doesn't knock politely. He kicks loudly. At least that's a step down from his other alternative, which is to huff and puff and blow the whole locker room down.
• USC's locker room celebration sounded like it included the nerd chant from "Revenge of the Nerds" (watch the clip for a good laugh -- and imagine Maualuga as Ogre). I'm not positive, but I'm also not the only one who heard it that way.
• Lots of good photos taken at this game, so keep your eyes peeled for a photo gallery or two.

-- Adam Rose
Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images

While the cat's away the mice will play.

With thousands of USC students on their annual Bay Area pilgrimage (the football team is playing Stanford this weekend), pranksters doused the school's iconic Tommy Trojan in blue paint.

Formally known as the Trojan Shrine, the lifesize bronze statue has previously fallen victim to paint (and worse) during the week before the football game against crosstown rival UCLA. In response, Tommy is traditionally wrapped in duct tape several days before that game and an organization called Trojan Knights stands vigil.

There was no 24-hour guard this weekend. Tommy was pretty lonely, but he wasn't blue until he had an unexpected visitor.

Few details are known at this time. It appears the incident occurred late Friday night or early Saturday morning. Considering the colors, suspicion will immediately point to Westwood. USC plays UCLA in the Rose Bowl on Dec. 6.

School officials rushed to have Tommy cleaned up on Saturday morning. They can't be too pleased, but a good prank can always help keep the rivalry spirited. At least once in a blue moon.

-- Adam Rose
Photo by Lauren

Pete Carroll is a NorCal native and after a walk-through at Stanford Stadium pointed out the special nature of the Weekender to the team:

"It's an interesting game to come up here for the kids that are Northern California kids. We talked about that during the week some. It's kind of traditional for us to have fun with the fact that they finally get to play in front of their families. You'll see that the captains tomorrow are Rey Maualuga (special teams) ... Derek Simmons and Christian Tupou (service teams)."

Carroll joked about Maualuga's hometown, "You can't get any further Northern California than Eureka!"

-- Adam Rose
Photo by Chris Morrison/US Presswire

USC-offensive-coordinator-turned-Raider-head-coach-turned-unemployed Lane Kiffin has been mentioned for a number of open (or soon-to-be-open) coaching jobs in college football. He's popular in the Bay Area press (an advantage of being on the wrong side of Al Davis), so the local media talk about him more than in Los Angeles. From today's "Kiffin sightings" in the San Francisco Chronicle:

• Tennessee
• Clemson
• Syracuse
• Washington
• San Diego State

To get the scoop on why each of these schools could wind up with Kiff, click here.

-- Adam Rose
Photo by Cary Edmondson/US Presswire

After Friday's walk-through at Stanford Stadium, which sold out on Thursday for Saturday's showdown between the Trojans and the Cardinal, USC Coach Pete Carroll spoke about the legacy of last year's enormous upset:

Earlier in the week, he said his own recollection of that game was pretty limited:

On Stanford's campus, boosters are doing their best to keep last season fresh in everybody's memory. Around the athletics facilities, several copies of the postgame Stanford Daily are tacked to the walls and large signs advertise a popular T-shirt in the bookstore which reads "Biggest. Upset. Ever."

How popular? More than 7,000 copies have sold. Asked how that ranked compared with all other apparel ever sold in the bookstore, an employee said it wasn't even close. "Most. Popular. Ever."

-- Adam Rose

USC safety Taylor Mays was Pac-10 defensive player of the week for last Saturday's performance, and Carroll was raving about his performance this week. As USC's coach might say, he was playing with his hair on fire.

-- Adam Rose

USC fans headed to the Weekender are in for a San Francisco treat. The weather is as good as it gets in the Bay Area. It's a rare occasion when you can go up to Twin Peaks and actually see that the city has water on three sides. Normally there's too much fog.

One thing you won't see this year is a pep rally in Union Square. The Trojan invasion is on ice because it can't be ... on ice. City officials put in a skating rink for the holiday season, along with a traditional Christmas tree. USC expects to renew the pep rally in the coming years, provided there's space. Observed one school administrator, "The square is filled with wonderful things, but no room for us!"

There's still plenty of USC-related activity going on. Southwest flights have been awash in cardinal and gold since Thursday (word to the wise: Virgin America is also an economical -- and trendy -- choice). Students and younger alumni will probably flock to the Marina's triangle bars, while slightly more dignified alumni will find themselves at tonight's indoor pep rally at the St. Francis. If you attend the latter, you can always go ice skating afterward. For more on the official alumni events, click here.

-- Adam Rose

Three years ago, Oklahoma State's football team wasn't bowl eligible. Then oil billionaire T. Boone Pickens donated $165 million to its athletic department.

Fast forward to Oct. 19, 2008. The Cowboys were 7-0 and ranked sixth in the initial BCS standings -- nipping on the heels of No. 5 USC.

Coincidence? Maybe not.

The next day, the New York Times ran a story that Pickens' hedge fund had taken a major blow and that construction at Oklahoma State was being held up. The Cowboys lost two of their next three games.

Coincidence? Of course. But it's tempting to think about the correlation.

In reality, the nation's economic slump has (or will) hit most universities. All types of donors, whether they want their name on a building or just tickets to a game, are feeling the squeeze. The Times article goes on to discuss concerns at athletic departments in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas. A couple of weeks later, they ran a story on how the situation is hurting schools in general.

The effect at USC, specifically with athletics, has yet to play out. "It's hard to gauge," said Associate Athletic Director Ron Orr. "In annual giving, compared to where we were last year (and we've only completed one quarter), we're even or a little bit ahead. I anticipate there will be a drop-off, but it's too early to tell."

Renewals are many months away and donors have already received primary benefits like tickets and parking. There is at least one indicator available -- and it looks positive. Support group members have to be current on their dues in order to get bowl tickets. So far, those seem to be on schedule. It can't hurt that USC is barreling toward another BCS bid.

Orr said that the athletic department's most recent capital campaign, for the Galen Center, was fully covered by pledges and that those payments were also coming in on schedule. No timeline has been announced on any other major project. Officials have been discussing an expansion of Heritage Hall for a while, but it's unclear how or if that could be affected by the economic downturn.

"We're not the gas company, we're the entertainment dollars," Orr summed up. "I'm sure when people have to make some decisions, it's going to be tight. Where we fall in that, who knows? I think that people love USC football and they're going to try and keep their tickets where they are and keep their donations going. We'll work with them. Since we're not the gas company, we're not going to turn out the lights! We'll work with the people that have been here a long time and can make a payment."

-- Adam Rose

If you haven't noticed, Ted Miller has done an amazing job transitioning traditional beat writing into blog form. He writes prolifically about the Pac-10 for ESPN. Some of his observations from USC's 17-3 escape over Cal on Saturday:

• The Trojans, owners of the nation's No. 1 defense, haven't allowed a touchdown in more than 10 quarters.
• The Trojans have held their last four opponents to fewer than 200 yards of total offense.
• In five games in the Coliseum this year -- a schedule that included three ranked teams -- the Trojans have outscored opponents, 180-16.
• Cal began the game with the nation's No. 19 scoring offense (36.4 points per game) but scored only three points, its lowest output since 2000. The Bears previous scoring low this season is 24 points.

Miller wasn't pointing all this out to build USC up as much as he was saying that even the most suffocating defense won't win a national title without some help.

Defense used to win championships, but in the BCS era you need to score style points.

-- Adam Rose

PS: I don't just like his blog because he also uses bullet-points and double-dashes -- honest.

I always get a kick out of the factoids in Jerry Crowe's columns:

Eight fans seated in a group of nine behind the USC bench Saturday at the Coliseum painted their chests to spell out P-L-A-Y-O-F-F-S, but why did the ninth brand himself with a question mark rather than an exclamation point? . . .

Vomiting through his facemask Saturday probably was not linebacker Rey Maualuga's way of expressing his opinion about the USC offense. . . .

Or was it? . . .

Only once before this season had the usually high-powered Trojans won a game during the Pete Carroll era while scoring 17 points or fewer. . . .

This year, Mark Sanchez & Co. have done it twice. . . .

Speaking of random observations, visitors to USC's Heritage Hall will sometimes notice that trophies inside the display cases have been knocked over. It tends to happen during the team's Jock Rally, which can get pretty rowdy.

Also, did anybody else hear Cal fans chanting "Yes we can!" after Joe McKnight fumbled late in Saturday's game? USC fans responded with a half-hearted "Hurry up and lose!"

-- Adam Rose

The buzz started early this season for USC safety Taylor Mays. Regarded as one of the greatest physical specimens in all of college football, expectations were understandably high. Although he's been solid, he hasn't been spectacular -- until this Saturday against Cal. You can see some of his biggest hits in the video above.

Mays' numbers (five tackles, four solo, and four pass breakups) weren't out of this world, but his play was. He covered so much ground that Cal's receivers wouldn't have been safe on Mars. His effort earned him a nod as the Pac-10's defensive player of the week.

"He knocked a bunch of balls out," observed Coach Pete Carroll after the game. "He played like a great free safety tonight. He was all over the field. He helped guys when they were a little bit in trouble in coverage. If you throw the ball down field, he's going to knock you out! And he's been doing it -- not just this week, but this was a more spectacular week for him. His experience, his confidence is just at a height that it hasn't been before. He really is all over the place. That's a lot of body hitting you, running that fast! You can see why the receivers are letting the balls get away. He's pounding people."

Mays was joined by Oregon State tailback Jacquizz Rodgers and Arizona State kicker Thomas Weber on this week's honor roll. Rey Maualuga is the only other Trojan to be honored for defense this season (against Ohio State). Mark Sanchez has been the offensive player of the week three times, and Fili Moala and David Buehler have each done it on special teams.

-- Adam Rose

Check out these three clips from Saturday's USC-Cal game:

Did the "Cush Push" violate both the letter and spirit of the rule? Where was the review on Turner's touchdown? And who was the lineman downfield when Shane Vereen scored?

As a sports official myself, I'm normally the first person to defend refs who get too much flack. Some mistakes are understandable. It's a difficult, underappreciated job -- and we're all human. Unfortunately, the Pac-10 seems to go just a little too far (or not far enough) and has a hard-earned reputation for botching calls.

Pac-10 Commissioner Tom Hansen will step down July 1. His retirement announcement had a lot of black-and-white type celebrating his accomplishments but none about his relationship with the guys in black-and-white uniforms. Will he do something about it in the next eight months? That might be a nice legacy.

If not, hopefully the next commissioner will take a proactive role and publicly announce a commitment to improved officiating. In the meantime, how about upgrading the instant replay systems to high definition?

Yeah, that still hasn't happened.

-- Adam Rose
Thanks to Jonathan B. for tracking down the "highlights."

USC heads to the Farm this weekend seeking revenge against the team that knocked the Trojans out of the national title hunt last year. Stanford achieved arguably the biggest upset in college history (certainly the largest by Las Vegas standards) and ended USC's Coliseum winning streak with a 24-23 victory.

What are the odds the Cardinal can do it again? Not very good. The Trojans are favored by 23 points on some of the online gambling sites, and tomorrow's Vegas number may be similar. Of course, they were a 41-point favorite last time around.

So when was the last time somebody beat USC two years in a row?

The answer is after the jump ...

Matt Cassel (QB, New England) isn't getting sacked as much, and that means he can get his job done. He's doing so well, some are considering him as the Pats' MVP. On Sunday he threw 23 of 34 for 234 yards. On the ground, he picked up 22 yards and a touchdown in nine carries. He fumbled once. New England rolled past the Bills, 20-10.

LenDale White (RB, Tennessee) led the Titans with 14 rushing yards. That wasn't too impressive, but his touchdown was his 11th of the season. He also made a six-yard catch. Tennessee escaped Chicago, 21-14, to remain undefeated.

Mike Patterson (DT, Philadelphia) had only one tackle but grabbed his first career interception (complete with a 21-yard return) and recovered a fumble in a 36-31 loss to the N.Y. Giants.

Justin Fargas (RB, Oakland) is doing the best under the circumstances, gaining 89 yards in 22 carries and nine yards in a reception. He also had a fumble in the Raiders' 17-6 loss to Carolina.

Lofa Tatupu (LB, Seattle) made nine tackles in a 21-19 loss to Miami.

Billy Miller (TE, New Orleans) nabbed five receptions for 65 yards in a 34-20 loss to Atlanta.

Reggie Bush (RB, Saints) is expected back from knee surgery for next week's game against Kansas City.

Video time! Here's Pete Carroll talking about the general tenor of the game and the plays that stood out to him:

Carroll, Brian Cushing and Mark Sanchez talking about USC's penalty problems:

Bill Plaschke talks about the hopes, and mild disappointment, of this tough win:

-- Adam Rose