Sam Farmer’s NFL Week 6 picks

The Times’ NFL writer examines this week’s matchups.

Lines according to Glantz-Culver (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 11-2 (.846); season 55-22 (.714). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 9-3-1 (.750); season 33-40-4 (.452).

Buffalo (4-1)

at N.Y. Giants (3-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Bills 31, N.Y. Giants 24

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 704.

Line: Giants by 3. O/U: 50.

Buffalo’s defense is creating a lot of turnovers — and believes it will keep doing that. Confidence like that is contagious, and it can creep into the heads of the Giants.

Indianapolis (0-5)

at Cincinnati (3-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Bengals 23, Colts 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Bengals by 7. O/U: 40.

Colts owner Jim Irsay says his team is “running on empty” after an oh-so-close, emotional loss to Kansas City. That’s all I need to hear.

Jacksonville (1-4)

at Pittsburgh (3-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Steelers 24, Jaguars 10

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Steelers by 12. O/U: 40.

The Jaguars are 0-3 with rookie Blaine Gabbert starting at quarterback. Although Gabbert has shown flashes of promise, it’s a lot to ask of him to win a game at Pittsburgh.

Philadelphia (1-4)

at Washington (3-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Redskins 28, Eagles 23

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Eagles by 1. O/U: 47.

The well-rested Redskins have a healthy Ryan Torain, who has trampled the Eagles before. Philadelphia is a mess on defense and can’t stop turning over the ball.

San Francisco (4-1)

at Detroit (5-0)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Lions 23, 49ers 21

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Lions by 4. O/U: 46.

The 49ers are running short of healthy receivers. They could be in trouble if the Lions draw them into a shootout. Detroit’s run defense has been inconsistent, but it will hold up here.

St. Louis (0-4)

at Green Bay (5-0)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Packers 38, Rams 13

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Packers by 15. O/U: 48.

This has the makings of a trap game for the Packers, although they’re too mature a team to blow this at home. The Rams don’t have the defensive backs to stop Aaron Rodgers.

Carolina (1-4)

at Atlanta (2-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Panthers 35, Falcons 30

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Falcons by 4. O/U: 51.

It’s time for the Panthers to break through with a big win. They’ve kept every game close to this point. The Falcons will try to slow the pace with a pounding running game.

Houston (3-2)

at Baltimore (3-1)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Ravens 30, Texans 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Ravens by 7. O/U: 44.

Losing Mario Williams is a painful setback for Texans, who will probably have to blitz a lot more without him. The Ravens will put clamps on Arian Foster and make Houston one-dimensional.

Cleveland (2-2)

at Oakland (3-2)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Raiders 28, Browns 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Raiders by 6. O/U: 44.

This will be an emotional return for the Raiders, playing their first home game since the death of Al Davis. Darren McFadden’s running will create passing opportunities for them.

Dallas (2-2)

at New England (4-1)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Patriots 28, Cowboys 23

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Patriots by 7. O/U: 55.

One quarterback can consistently finish the job, the other can’t. It’s hard to bet against Tom Brady, especially at home. The Cowboys need to prove they can show up in the fourth quarter.

New Orleans (4-1)

at Tampa Bay (3-2)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Saints 35, Buccaneers 24

TV: None. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Saints by 4. O/U: 49.

No Gerald McCoy up front for the Buccaneers means more time for Drew Brees to pick apart Tampa Bay’s defense. There’s something very deflating about losing by 45.

Minnesota (1-4)

at Chicago (2-3)

Sunday, 5:15 p.m.

Bears 27, Vikings 24

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Bears by 3. O/U: 42.

The Vikings have lost nine of 10 at Chicago, and Donovan McNabb just isn’t playing well enough to buck that trend. The Bears can turn their attention to containing Adrian Peterson.

Miami (0-4)

at N.Y. Jets (2-3)

Monday, 5:30 p.m.

Jets 28, Dolphins 15

TV: ESPN.

Line: Jets by 7. O/U: 43.

After losing three in a row on the road, coming back to the Meadowlands — and facing the winless, Matt Moore-led Dolphins — is just the prescription the Jets need.

Off: Arizona, Denver, Kansas City, San Diego, Seattle, Tennessee.