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Derby has variety of possibilities

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Times Staff Writer

Today could be a good day for a waterproof Derby hat.

With a 50% chance of thundershowers in the forecast, the $750 millinery for sale at Churchill Downs this week might not be enough to keep someone’s hair dry.

Queen Elizabeth II is to witness her first Kentucky Derby from a clubhouse dining room that will remain dry -- at least in the literal sense -- while the masses revel in an infield soaked by two days of rain for a $40 admission fee.

The contrast in accommodations could be a metaphor for the 20-horse field that will load into the gate for the 133rd running of the world’s most famous horse race.

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The owner of Nobiz Like Showbiz, Elizabeth Valando, is said to have turned down $17 million for her imposing but distractible colt.

Teuflesberg, one of the last to make the field, was bought for a mere $9,000, and the owners of another longshot, Storm In May, paid $16,000 for a gray colt that is blind in his right eye.

Curlin, the slight 7-2 favorite over 4-1 Street Sense on the morning line, was named for Charlie Curlin, a former slave who joined the Union Army in 1864.

One of the part-owners is Curlin’s great-grandson, a controversial Kentucky lawyer named Shirley Cunningham Jr. who would be the first African American to own a share of a Derby winner since 1891 if Curlin won.

The chestnut colt has an average winning margin of 9 1/2 lengths. But there is reason to doubt the Arkansas Derby winner: He has raced only three times.

Hovering over the day’s festivities will be the memory of Barbaro, the colt who won last year’s Derby by the largest margin in 60 years, only to shatter his right hind leg in the Preakness and be euthanized eight months later because of complications from the injury.

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Barbaro’s jockey, Edgar Prado, will be aboard 10-1 Scat Daddy today.

“I love Barbaro. He really gave me a big day in my life and changed my life forever,” Prado said Friday, his silks muddy after a race over a track rated sloppy for the second consecutive day. “But in this business, you have to move on.”

Scat Daddy is one of five horses in the 1 1/4 -mile race for 3-year-olds trained by Todd Pletcher, 39, who manages a mega-stable of 200 horses but has yet to win a Triple Crown race.

This week, Pletcher had a Peyton Manning jersey in his office, and jokingly started a news conference as if he were at a 12-step meeting.

“Hi, my name is Todd Pletcher, and I’ve never won the Kentucky Derby,” he said, to peals of laughter. “I’m 0 for 14,” he added. “Worst-case scenario, I’m 0 for 19.

“If I have a dead heat, does that mean I’ll have won two?”

Three other trainers with horses in the race have won the Derby.

Carl Nafzger, trainer of Street Sense, won with Unbridled in 1990 and is remembered for calling the race down the stretch for 92-year-old owner Frances Genter, whose eyesight had grown dim.

Street Sense is proven over the Churchill track, having won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile here last November by a record 10-length margin. No Juvenile winner has ever gone on to win the Derby, but Nafzger is confident.

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“Come Saturday, show me some daylight in the lane, and I’ll rest my case,” he said.

Barclay Tagg, winner of the Wood Memorial with Nobiz Like Shobiz, won the Derby with Funny Cide in 2003.

John Shirreffs, trainer of Santa Anita Derby winner Tiago, won with Tiago’s half-brother, Giacomo, in 2005.

Tiago, a 15-1 closer, has the same team behind him as come-from-behind winner Giacomo did, right down to his groom and exercise rider.

Tiago is one of six horses in the race who trained at Hollywood Park.

Great Hunter, a 15-1 stalker who must break from the far outside post in a 20-horse field, and Liquidity, a 30-1 longshot, are trained by Doug O’Neill and owned by J. Paul Reddam of Sunset Beach.

O’Neill saddled Lava Man for last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill but said his first Derby would be different.

“Just the tradition and the prestige,” O’Neill said. “Nothing against the Breeders’ Cup, which doesn’t have the history yet, but this definitely is not just another day at the racetrack.”

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Two of Pletcher’s five horses, 8-1 Circular Quay and longshot Sam P., were part of the string Pletcher sent to Hollywood Park last winter to train on the new synthetic track, considered safer for horses.

The final Southern California entrant is 30-1 Stormello, the Hollywood Futurity champion ridden by two-time Derby winner Kent Desormeaux and is seen as part of the early speed in the race.

“Kent Desormeaux told me six months ago this was a Derby horse,” said Bill Currin, who bred, owns and trains Stormello. “After his last work, he got off and said, ‘Here’s the winner.’ ”

Stormello is expected to be up front early, but there have been only six wire-to-wire winners of the Derby since 1966.

That’s the sort of statistic that casts doubt on the chances of speed horses such as Pletcher’s Cowtown Cat and Larry Jones’ Hard Spun, whose final workout Monday was so fast it made some believe the horse couldn’t recover in time for today.

Churchill Downs is known for its ability to handle water. But if it continues to rain and the track comes up sloppy or muddy, that is considered an advantage to the front-runners and a disadvantage to those that would have to endure mud kicked in their faces before coming from behind.

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For anyone not inclined to study past performances and workout times to pick a Derby winner, here’s a more frivolous approach.

The last two winners of the race, Giacomo and Barbaro, both had names ending in “o.”

That leads us to Tiago, Stormello or Zanjero.

Don’t bet the Camaro.

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robyn.norwood@latimes.com

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Local schedule

Hollywood Park’s hours on Derby Day:

* Gates open: 7:30 a.m.

* First simulcast: 8 a.m.

* First post: noon.

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