Zack Greinke will join Diamondbacks for six years, $206 million

Did the Dodgers outsmart themselves by not signing Zack Greinke? The question could be asked over and over again in the coming months and years, particularly if the Dodgers fail to end their World Series drought.

Greinke agreed to a $206.5-million contract Friday with the Arizona Diamondbacks, who landed the Cy Young Award runner-up by making him a six-year offer the Dodgers wouldn’t, according to people who familiar with the situation who spoke under the condition of anonymity because the deal is pending a physical examination. The Dodgers’ proposal was for five years and close to $160 million.

Greinke’s ultimate landing place was a surprise, but the Dodgers’ reluctance to offer him a six-year contract wasn’t. Greinke turned 32 in October and Andrew Friedman, the team’s president of baseball operations, frequently has spoken about the dangers of long-term free-agent contracts.

Greinke’s departure frees Friedman from concerns that roster flexibility will one day be limited because of an underperforming 38-year-old pitcher making $30-plus million. The Dodgers also gained a compensatory selection between the first and second rounds of the draft next year.

But Friedman is no longer overseeing a low-budget team in Tampa Bay that couldn’t afford to waste any money and had to build through the draft. He is now in a market where anything short of a World Series championship is considered a failure, and losing Greinke to a division rival won’t get the Dodgers any closer to an October parade.

At the moment, the Dodgers’ rotation consists of the consensus No. 1 pitcher on the planet, Clayton Kershaw, and a series of question marks.

Greinke and Kershaw had a combined 1.90 earned-run average this year as they led the Dodgers to a third consecutive National League West championship. The remainder of the rotation had a 4.41 ERA.

The team’s No. 2 pitcher is now the injury-prone Brett Anderson, who made a career-high 31 starts last season. Anderson was 10-9 with a 3.69 ERA, but his innings more than quadrupled from the previous year, which raises questions about his durability for the upcoming season.

The only other healthy pitcher who has a place in the rotation locked down is Alex Wood, who was acquired in a midseason trade with the Atlanta Braves. Wood pitched reasonably well for the Dodgers — he was 5-6 with a 4.35 ERA in 12 starts — but not well enough to earn a start in the postseason.

Beyond that, the Dodgers are counting on the return of Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is recovering from a shoulder operation. While Ryu is expected to be ready for the start of the season, Friedman has conceded the Dodgers don’t know what they will get out of him.

Something else to consider: Kershaw, Anderson, Wood and Ryu are all left-handed.

Right-hander Brandon McCarthy isn’t expected to return from a major elbow operation until the middle of the season.

The task of rebuilding the rotation will fall to the same sabermetrically inclined front office that made the mistakes of signing the injury-prone McCarthy and trading for Mat Latos.

Three of the top free-agent pitchers are now off the board: Greinke; David Price, who signed a seven-year, $217-million contract with the Boston Red Sox; and Jordan Zimmermann, who inked a five-year, $110-million deal with the Detroit Tigers.

The other is Johnny Cueto, who reportedly rejected a six-year, $120-million offer from the Diamondbacks. If the Dodgers wouldn’t offer a six-year deal to Greinke, it’s unlikely they will do so with Cueto, who experienced discomfort in his elbow this year.

That doesn’t make the situation hopeless.

This particular free-agent class is loaded with pitching, with the next tiers including the likes of Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake and Scott Kazmir. There is also the possibility the Dodgers could trade for a starter.

For the $32 million a year they were offering Greinke, they could afford two starting pitchers.

But will that be enough to make up the loss of Greinke?

Greinke, who finished second in Cy Young voting to Jake Arrieta of the Chicago Cubs, had a 1.66 ERA that was the lowest in baseball in 20 years. He went 19-3 and pitched six or more innings in all 32 of his starts. He also had a scoreless streak of 45 2/3 innings.

Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have made themselves instant contenders.

Greinke will be part of a rotation that includes former All-Star Patrick Corbin and will play in front of one of the best defenses in baseball.

Greinke will also be backed by a lineup that scored the second-most runs in the National League — only the altitude-aided Colorado Rockies scored more — and features All-Stars in their primes in first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and center fielder A.J. Pollock.

Follow Dylan Hernandez on Twitter @dylanohernandez