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Chargers in revenge mode for Broncos

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The only thing colder than the Denver Broncos these days is the revenge San Diego hopes to serve them.

Fifteen weeks after a mile-high mistake cost the Chargers a victory at Denver -- a game in which the Broncos’ winning drive was kept alive by a non-fumble call -- San Diego has a chance to steal one back.

And the stakes are much higher this time.

The Chargers play host to the Broncos on Sunday night, with Denver one loss away from becoming the first team in NFL history to fritter away a three-game division lead with three to play. The winner claims the AFC West title and the division’s only postseason berth.

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Throughout the season, Chargers General Manager A.J. Smith had this finale circled on his calendar. But for so long, that circle was closer to a big red zero. It became significant again only last Sunday, when the Chargers won at Tampa Bay and the Broncos lost at home to Buffalo -- back-to-back stunners.

“No more scenarios, it’s over with scenarios,” Smith said in a phone interview. “Winner take all. We rose, they slipped, both teams go head to head, best team wins. That’s what it comes down to.”

Smith likes the Chargers’ odds.

Why? Because he considers this a quasi-playoff game -- winner moves on, loser goes home -- and thinks his players will draw on their experiences of last season, when they started slowly, got hot and rode their winning streak all the way to the AFC championship game at New England.

“Our guys have felt that pressure,” he said. “It’s like you can’t even breathe. All of that will be out on that field in a winner-take-all situation against the Denver Broncos at home. . . . I’m really curious to see the energy of our players, because now they’ve felt that extreme pressure that can stifle you. And who’s going to rise above it, and who’s going to fall?

“I want to see if last year pays dividends. I think it will.”

According to STATS LLC, if the Chargers were to win, they would become only the ninth 8-8 team to make the playoffs, joining the 1985 Cleveland Browns, 1990 New Orleans Saints, 1991 New York Jets, 1999 Dallas Cowboys, 1999 Detroit Lions, 2004 Minnesota Vikings, 2004 St. Louis Rams and 2006 New York Giants. Of those eight, only the Vikings and Rams went on to win a postseason game.

Not surprisingly, Smith is quick to shift the pressure to the Broncos.

“They’re faltering a little bit,” he said. “And we’re in their rearview mirror.”

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Detroit at Green Bay: All the Lions have to do to avoid a spot in the history books is win at Green Bay. That should be simple -- except for the fact they haven’t done that since 1991. Hello, 0-16. Pick: Green Bay.

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Tennessee at Indianapolis: Neither team needs to win this one, and Indianapolis has a history of resting its starters in finales that don’t change the playoff picture. Still, since the Titans already have the top seeding, the edge goes to the home team. Pick: Indianapolis.

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New York Giants at Minnesota: The Giants can take a deep breath, although playing last season’s meaningless finale so tough was a point of pride. The Vikings, meanwhile, are still fighting for their postseason lives -- so they’re hungrier. Pick: Minnesota.

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Carolina at New Orleans: The Panthers can’t afford to give up control of their destiny with so much at stake. After blowing a chance last week, they won’t mess around in this one. Pick: Carolina.

St. Louis at Atlanta: The Rams have lost nine in a row, and the Falcons are playoff bound but also are still in the running for the NFC South title. Pick: Atlanta.

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New England at Buffalo: The Patriots have beaten Buffalo 10 consecutive times, last losing to the Bills in a 2003 opener. When New England has to win, it usually does. Pick: New England.

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Chicago at Houston: Until they got to Oakland last Sunday, the Texans were rolling. The Bears kept their hopes alive by winning Monday, but will have a hard time protecting their quarterback in this one. Pick: Houston.

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Jacksonville at Baltimore: The Jaguars have shown some life the last couple of weeks, but not enough to win at Baltimore against the rested and playoff-hungry Ravens. Pick: Baltimore.

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Kansas City at Cincinnati: Between them, these teams have five victories. The Bengals have perked up in the last couple of weeks, though, and last Sunday displayed the strangest thing: a defense. Pick: Cincinnati.

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Miami at New York Jets: No matter how you look at it, this is a dream matchup. Brett Favre has slipped in a big way the last few weeks, and so has his protection. If the Dolphins’ ground game is going, Chad Pennington can dink and dunk his old team into submission. Pick: Miami.

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Dallas at Philadelphia: After last Sunday’s loss at Washington, the Eagles are a longshot to make the playoffs. They’d love to deny the Cowboys a chance to get there, though. The forecast calls for showers and wind, which could weigh in Philadelphia’s favor. Pick: Philadelphia.

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Cleveland at Pittsburgh: The Steelers are slotted as the AFC’s No. 2 team, and a win here wouldn’t change that. It will be interesting to see whether Mike Tomlin rests his starters, though, because doing that last season didn’t give Pittsburgh much momentum heading into the postseason. Pick: Pittsburgh.

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Oakland at Tampa Bay: The Buccaneers’ defense has slipped in recent weeks, but it should return to form against JaMarcus Russell and the Raiders -- particularly with Tampa Bay still in the postseason picture. Pick: Tampa Bay.

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Seattle at Arizona: If the Cardinals have any hope of avoiding a one-and-done performance in the playoffs, they need to gather momentum. As it stands, they have lost four of five. Seattle is on an uptick, but the Cardinals should be able to hang on. Pick: Arizona.

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Washington at San Francisco: Yes, both teams are out of the playoffs, but this game could be a final audition for 49ers interim Coach Mike Singletary. Or maybe the team has already decided to give him the job. He deserves it. Pick: San Francisco.

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Denver at San Diego: The Chargers, who are starting to hit their stride, have beaten the Broncos by a combined 71-23 the past two times the teams have met in San Diego. Pick: San Diego.

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sam.farmer@latimes.com

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