Stage Appears Set for Conn Job

Even though Duke is ranked No. 1 and seeded first overall in the NCAA tournament, make no mistake: The favorite on sheer talent is Connecticut.

Sophomore forward Rudy Gay will be an NBA lottery pick when he turns pro even though he doesn’t always play to his potential.

Forwards Josh Boone and Hilton Armstrong and point guard Marcus Williams look as if they’ll be first-round picks too, and guards Denham Brown and Rashad Anderson could go in the second. (Boone and Williams, like Gay, are underclassmen.)

Having the best assortment of NBA talent doesn’t necessarily translate into a national championship, of course, but the threats in the regional aren’t overwhelming.

Tennessee, seeded second, lost four of its last six games. The real threat is probably defending champion North Carolina, but the Tar Heels are a freshman-laden team after their own exodus of NBA talent.

Illinois has Dee Brown and James Augustine from the starting five that lost to North Carolina in the title game but is hardly the same team.

Washington has a terrific player in Brandon Roy, but was swept by Washington State.

Michigan State has a toughness that can cause teams trouble and offensive threats in Maurice Ager, Paul Davis and Shannon Brown.

But back to Connecticut: When Anderson — who scored 18 points in the 2004 NCAA championship game but has had health problems — comes off the bench, you know a team is loaded.

You could compare Connecticut to the North Carolina team with Sean May, Rashad McCants, Raymond Felton and Marvin Williams that won last season.

Or you could compare Connecticut to the 1999 Duke team that had Elton Brand, Shane Battier and Corey Maggette — and lost to Connecticut in the title game.

But with capable shooters and a point guard who can deliver the ball and make free throws if the game is close — and a Hall of Fame coach in Jim Calhoun — there’s not any good reason to bet against Connecticut.

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1. CONNECTICUT

• Location: Storrs.

• Conference: Big East.

• RPI: 3.

• Record: 27-3.

• Against tournament field: 12-3.

• Away from home: 11-3.

• In last 10 games: 8-2.

• Impressive victories: Nov. 23, at Maui vs. Gonzaga, 65-63; Jan. 7, at Hartford, Conn., vs. Louisiana State, 67-66; Feb. 4, at Indiana, 88-80.

• Disturbing losses: Jan. 3, at Marquette, 94-79; March 9, at New York vs. Syracuse, 86-84 (OT).

• Top players: Rudy Gay, F, So., 15.3 ppg., 6.7 rpg.; Rashad Anderson, G/F, Sr., 13.2 ppg.; Marcus Williams, G, Jr., 10.7 ppg., 8.6 apg.

• Scouting report: Coach Jim Calhoun has at his disposal an impressive collection of height, speed and strength.

• Revenue/expenses: $7,896,974/$5,524,998.

• Little-known fact: Connecticut owns the most regular-season Big East men’s basketball titles, nine.

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2. TENNESSEE

• Location: Knoxville.

• Conference: Southeastern.

• RPI: 6.

• Record: 21-7.

• Against tournament field: 6-5.

• Away from home: 8-5.

• In last 10 games: 6-4.

• Impressive victories: Dec. 17, at Texas, 95-78; Feb. 7, at Kentucky, 75-67; Feb. 22, at Florida, 76-72.

• Disturbing losses: Dec. 22, at Oklahoma City vs. Oklahoma State, 89-73; March 10, at Nashville vs. South Carolina, 79-71.

• Top players: Chris Lofton, G, So., 17.3 ppg, 45.3% 3-pt.; C.J. Watson, G, Sr., 15.3 ppg, 4.1 apg.

• Scouting report: The Volunteers, upset by South Carolina in a quarterfinal of the SEC tournament, lost four of their last six games. Still, it has been a strong first season for Coach Bruce Pearl, who has the Volunteers in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2001.

• Revenue/expenses: $5,360,050/$4,503,085.

• Little-known fact: The Volunteers have more than 100 more steals than their opponents.

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3. NORTH CAROLINA

• Location: Chapel Hill.

• Conference: Atlantic Coast.

• RPI: 12.

• Record: 22-7.

• Against tournament field: 6-4.

• Away from home: 9-3.

• In last 10 games: 8-2.

• Impressive victories: Dec. 3, at Kentucky, 83-79; Jan. 30, vs. Arizona 86-69; March 4, at Duke, 83-76.

• Disturbing losses: Dec. 21, at USC, 74-59; Jan. 14, vs. Miami, 81-70.

• Top players: Tyler Hansbrough, F, Fr., 19.1 ppg., 7.8 rpg; Reyshawn Terry, F, Jr., 14.7 ppg., 6.0 rpg.

• Scouting report: The Tar Heels led the conference in assists, a testament to unselfishness and to Coach Roy Williams’ patience with a young team.

• Revenue/expenses: $15,016,479/$4,845,388.

• Little-known fact: Hansbrough leads North Carolina in scoring and rebounding, something no Tar Heel freshman has ever done.

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4. ILLINOIS

• Location: Champaign.

• Conference: Big Ten.

• RPI: 14.

• Record: 25-6.

• Against tournament field: 7-4.

• Away from home: 9-5.

• In last 10 games: 6-4.

• Impressive victories: Nov. 29, at North Carolina, 68-64; Dec. 8, vs. Georgetown, 58-48.

• Disturbing losses: Jan. 7, at Iowa, 63-48; Feb. 4, vs. Penn State, 66-65.

• Top players: Dee Brown, G, Sr., 14.4 ppg., 5.6 apg; James Augustine, F/C, Sr., 13.5 ppg., 9.3 rpg.

• Scouting report: The Fighting Illini win with defense and rebounding. They led the Big Ten and ranked sixth nationally in scoring defense, giving up an average of 57.7 points. They out-rebounded opponents by nearly seven a game.

• Revenue/expenses: $11,346,034/$3,239,017.

• Little-known fact: Only Duke, with 177 wins, has won more games than Illinois (166) in the last six seasons.

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5. WASHINGTON

• Location: Seattle.

• Conference: Pacific 10.

• RPI: 35.

• Record: 24-6.

• Against tournament field: 6-2.

• Away from home: 7-4.

• In last 10 games: 8-2.

• Impressive victories: Dec. 4, vs. Gonzaga, 99-95; Jan. 14, at UCLA, 69-65; Feb. 11, vs. UCLA, 70-67.

• Disturbing losses: Jan. 7, vs. Washington State, 78-71; Feb. 4, at Washington State, 77-64; March 9, at Los Angeles vs. Oregon, 84-73.

• Top players: Brandon Roy, G, Sr., 19.9 ppg., 5.7 rpg.; Jamaal Williams, F, Sr., 13.4 ppg., 4.7 rpg.

• Scouting report: The high-scoring Huskies had been the hottest Pac-10 team until stumbling against Oregon in the conference tournament.

• Revenue/expenses: $5,000,082/$3,191,388.

• Little-known fact: Washington is making its third consecutive NCAA tournament appearance.

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6. MICHIGAN STATE

• Location: East Lansing.

• Conference: Big Ten.

• RPI: 18.

• Record: 22-11.

• Against tournament field: 8-8.

• Away from home: 10-9.

• In last 10 games: 4-6.

• Impressive victories: Nov. 23, at Maui vs. Arizona, 74-71 (OT); Dec. 6, at New York vs. Boston College, 77-70.

• Disturbing losses: Nov. 19, at Hawaii, 84-62; Feb. 11, at Minnesota, 69-55.

• Top players: Maurice Ager, G, Sr., 19.1 ppg., 4.1 rpg; Shannon Brown, G, Jr., 17.6 ppg., 4.5 rpg; Paul Davis, C, Sr., 17.8 ppg., 9.3 rpg.

• Scouting report: Ager, Brown and Davis account for 73% of the Spartans’ scoring. The Spartans were fourth in the nation in free-throw shooting (77.7%).

• Revenue/expenses: $11,019,187/$6,297,369.

• Little-known fact: Coach Tom Izzo has a .702 winning percentage, best in Big Ten history.

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7. WICHITA STATE

• Location: Wichita, Kan.

• Conference: Missouri Valley.

• RPI: 27.

• Record: 24-8.

• Against tournament field: 4-7.

• Away from home: 10-6.

• In last 10 games: 7-3.

• Impressive victories: Jan. 14, vs. Missouri State, 81-57; Jan. 22, at Missouri State, 68-62; Feb. 14, vs. Creighton, 62-61 (OT).

• Disturbing losses: Nov. 25, at Illinois, 55-54; Dec. 10, vs. Michigan State, 83-64; March 4, at St. Louis vs. Bradley, 60-52.

• Top players: Paul Miller, C, Sr., 13.0 ppg., 6.5 rpg.; Sean Ogirri, G, So., 11.9 ppg.; Kyle Wilson, F, Jr., 11.2 ppg.

• Scouting report: The Shockers have balanced scoring, with four players averaging double figures.

• Revenue/expenses: $3,065,331/2,012,670.

• Little-known fact: In 1984-85, Xavier McDaniel became the first player to lead Division I in scoring and rebounding.

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8. KENTUCKY

• Location: Lexington.

• Conference: Southeastern.

• RPI: 41.

• Record: 21-12.

• Against tournament field: 5-9.

• Away from home: 11-7.

• Impressive victories: Nov. 22, at Kansas City vs. West Virginia, 80-66; March 1, at Tennessee, 80-78.

• Disturbing losses: Jan. 7, at Kansas, 73-46; Jan. 10, vs. Vanderbilt, 57-52; Feb. 11, at Vanderbilt, 84-81.

• Top players: Randolph Morris, C, So., 13.5 ppg, 6.0 rpg; Rajon Rondo, G, So., 11.3 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 4.9 apg.

• Scouting report: The Wildcats had two three-game losing streaks and lost five games at Rupp Arena, where they have lost 48 games in 30 years.

• Revenue/expenses: $12,854,928/$5,637,354.

• Little-known fact: Equipment manager Bill Keightley, 79, is in his 45th year on the job and has seen 1,394 of Kentucky’s 2,521 games.

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9. ALABAMA BIRMINGHAM

• Location: Birmingham.

• Conference: Conference USA.

• RPI: 32.

• Record: 24-6.

• Against tournament field: 1-2.

• Away from home: 10-5.

• In last 10 games: 8-2.

• Impressive victories: Dec. 28, vs. Oklahoma State, 90-71; Jan. 14, at Marshall, 76-64; March 2, vs. Memphis, 80-74.

• Disturbing losses: Nov. 29, vs. Western Kentucky, 92-76; Dec. 6, at DePaul, 70-66; Feb. 8, at Texas El Paso, 65-37.

• Top players: Marvett McDonald, G, Sr., 15.0 ppg.; Carldell Johnson, G, Sr., 6.2 apg.

• Scouting report: Coach Mike Anderson uses his depth to press and score fast.

• Revenue/expenses: $1,925,055/$2,076,208.

• Little-known fact: Cincinnati Coach Andy Kennedy is UAB’s all-time leader in three-pointers made and attempted in a season. He played for the Blazers from 1988 to 1991.

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10. SETON HALL

• Location: South Orange, N.J.

• Conference: Big East.

• RPI: 58.

• Record: 18-11.

• Against tournament field: 6-4.

• Away from home: 5-7.

• In last 10 games: 5-5.

• Impressive victories: Jan. 25, at North Carolina State, 83-65; Feb. 14, vs. West Virginia, 71-64; March 3, at Pittsburgh, 65-61.

• Disturbing losses: Dec. 1, at Richmond, 60-49; Dec. 18, vs. Northwestern, 44-42; Feb. 25, at DePaul, 67-64.

• Top players: Donald Copeland, G, Sr., 16.1 ppg., 4.9 apg.; Kelly Whitney, F/C, Sr., 15.1 ppg, 8.0 rpg.

• Scouting report: The Pirates turned the ball over 10 or fewer times in six games (all victories).

• Revenue/expenses: $3,889,638/$3,889,638.

• Little-known fact: P.J. Carlesimo recently was voted Seton Hall coach of the century.

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11. GEORGE MASON

• Location: Fairfax, Va.

• Conference: Colonial Athletic.

• RPI: 26.

• Record: 23-7.

• Against tournament field: 3-1.

• Away from home: 11-6.

• In last 10 games: 8-2.

• Impressive victories: Nov. 10, vs. UC Irvine, 79-56; Dec. 21, vs. Hampton, 79-66; Feb. 18, at Wichita State, 70-67.

• Disturbing losses: Feb. 23, at Hofstra, 77-66; March 5, at Richmond., Va., vs. Hofstra, 58-49.

• Top players: Jai Lewis, F/C, Sr., 14.0 ppg, 7.9 rpg; Will Thomas, F, So., 11.6 ppg, 6.9 rpg; Tony Skinn, G, Sr., 12.8 ppg.

• Scouting report: Lewis and Thomas lead a balanced offense that has five players averaging double figures.

• Revenue/expenses: $1,027,612/$1,150,050.

• Little-known fact: Coach Jim Larranaga led Providence to a 20-8 record and to the NIT in his senior season.

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12. UTAH STATE

• Location: Logan.

• Conference: Western Athletic.

• RPI: 46.

• Record: 23-8.

• Against tournament field: 4-2.

• Away from home: 9-6.

• In last 10 games: 7-3.

• Impressive victories: Nov. 19, at Oral Roberts, 72-67; Jan. 23, at Nevada, 59-53.

• Disturbing losses: Nov. 30, at Utah, 67-66; Jan. 7, at Fresno State, 99-96; Feb. 11, vs. New Mexico State, 83-77.

• Top players: Nate Harris, F, Sr., 17.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 3.1 apg; Jaycee Carroll, G, So., 16.1 ppg, 45% 3-pt.

• Scouting report: The Aggies are a balanced team with a strong inside presence in Harris and a solid outside shooter in Carroll.

• Revenue/expenses: $760,183/$1,266,239.

• Little-known fact: Utah State, making its 17th NCAA tournament appearance, has made six conference finals in the last seven years.

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13. AIR FORCE

• Location: Colorado Springs, Colo.

• Conference: Mountain West.

• RPI: 50.

• Record: 24-6.

• Against tournament field: 1-2.

• Away from home: 9-6.

• In last 10 games: 7-3.

• Impressive victories: Dec. 28, vs. Georgia Tech, 54-46; Jan. 7, vs. San Diego State, 65-62.

• Disturbing losses: Jan. 11, at Wyoming, 55-50; Jan. 21, at New Mexico, 62-59; March 9, at Denver vs. Wyoming, 57-55.

• Top players: Antoine Hood, G, Sr., 14.8 ppg.; Jacob Burtschi, F, Jr., 12.4 ppg.; Dan Nwaelele, G/F, Jr., 11.7 ppg.

• Scouting report: Air Force set a school record for wins in a season, but enters the NCAA tournament after falling to 0-7 in conference tournament first-round games.

• Revenue/expenses: Not available.

• Little-known fact: Air Force is making its second tournament appearance since 1962.

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14. MURRAY STATE

• Location: Murray, Ky.

• Conference: Ohio Valley.

• RPI: 65.

• Record: 24-6.

• Against tournament field: 0-2.

• Away from home: 10-5.

• In last 10 games: 9-1.

• Impressive victories: Dec. 19, at Jacksonville State, 91-72; Jan. 26, vs. Tennessee Tech, 55-51.

• Disturbing losses: Dec. 21., at Samford, 60-51; Jan. 16, at Eastern Illinois, 59-54.

• Top players: Shawn Witherspoon, F, Jr., 10.8 ppg, 7.8 rpg; Trey Pearson, G, Jr., 10 ppg.; Darnell Hopkins, G, Sr., 9.0 ppg.

• Scouting report: The Racers will need Witherspoon to help control the inside if they hope to have a good tournament.

• Revenue/expenses: $959,291/$1,230,827

• Little-known fact: Hall of Famer Joseph Fulks, who played at Murray State, was one of the first players to switch from the two-handed shot to the one-handed shot.

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15. WINTHROP

• Location: Rock Hill, S.C.

• Conference: Big South.

• RPI: 73.

• Record: 23-7.

• Against tournament field: 1-2.

• Away from home: 7-6.

• In last 10 games: 9-1.

• Impressive victories: Nov. 19, at Marquette, 71-64; Jan. 21, at High Point, 70-67; March 4, vs. Coastal Carolina, 51-50.

• Disturbing losses: Dec. 3, at Alabama, 60-57; Dec. 14, at South Carolina, 68-54; Jan. 24, vs. Coastal Carolina, 64-57.

• Top players: Torrell Martin, G, Jr., 13.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg; James Shuler, F, Sr., 13.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.5 apg; Craig Bradshaw, C, Jr., 12.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg.

• Scouting report: Led by Martin and Shuler, the Eagles are a well-balanced defense-minded team.

• Revenue/expenses: $518,853/$739,958.

• Little-known fact: In eight seasons at the school, Coach Gregg Marshall has led Winthrop to the NCAA tournament six times.

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16. ALBANY

• Location: Albany, N.Y.

• Conference: America East.

• RPI: 119.

• Record: 21-10.

• Against tournament field: 0-3.

• Away from home: 11-7.

• In last 10 games: 8-2.

• Impressive victories: Dec. 10, at Cleveland State, 78-65; Jan. 28, at Binghamton, 52-51; March 11, vs. Vermont, 80-67.

• Disturbing losses: Nov. 21, vs. Sacred Heart, 63-61; Nov. 26, at San Diego State, 80-53; Jan. 22, vs. New Hampshire, 75-72 (OT).

• Top players: Jamar Wilson, G, Jr., 17.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 3.6 apg; Brent Wilson, F, So., 10.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg.

• Scouting report: The Great Danes like to pound the ball inside to Brent Wilson but Jamar Wilson, the America East player of the year, is the one who makes everything work.

• Revenue/expenses: $156,279/$780,993.

• Little-known fact: The last time Albany won at least 20 games was in 1993-94.

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REGIONAL BREAKDOWN

BEST FIRST-ROUND GAME

No. 8 Kentucky vs. No. 9 Ala. Birmingham

Two seasons ago, UAB upset top-seeded Kentucky in the second round with the frenzied “40 minutes of hell” style Coach Mike Anderson learned under Nolan Richardson at Arkansas. There’s more history: UAB upset Kentucky in the second round in 1981 as well. UAB’s upset credentials this season are bolstered by a victory over Memphis, although the Blazers also lost to Memphis twice.

UPSET IN THE MAKING

No. 10 Seton Hall over No. 7 Wichita State

It doesn’t sound like an upset, but with Seton Hall seeded 10th and Wichita State seeded seventh, it qualifies. Wichita State is one of those Missouri Valley Conference teams that compiled a very good RPI for no very obvious reason, and this will be a referendum on the MVC. Mutual-opponent note: Wichita State defeated Providence by eight at home. Seton Hall, the seventh-place team in the Big East, defeated Providence on the road by three.

IMPACT PLAYER

Marcus Williams, Connecticut

You can make an argument for Washington’s Brandon Roy or North Carolina’s Tyler Hansbrough, whose 40-point performance against Georgia Tech set the Atlantic Coast Conference freshman scoring record. But since Connecticut is the pick, stick with Williams, the Huskies’ most important player. After sitting out the first 11 games this season because of his involvement in the theft of some laptop computers — and stirring controversy when he returned — he has averaged 8.6 assists.

THE FORECAST

Connecticut

It will be UConn over North Carolina in the regional final. And at the Final Four, Jim Calhoun will have a chance to match Bob Knight and Mike Krzyzewski by winning his third title. If Connecticut wins, Calhoun will have won his championships in eight years and would be tied with Knight and Krzyzewski for most titles by any coach not named John Wooden or Adolph Rupp. (Wooden won 10 titles and Rupp won four.)

— Robyn Norwood