Sam Farmer’s Mock NFL Draft

With this weekend’s NFL draft fast approaching, Times NFL expert Sam Farmer issues his third version of what might happen.

1. Miami - Chris Long, DE, Virginia - Dolphins are said to be deep in negotiations with Jake Long, but wouldn’t it just be like Bill Parcells to pull a head fake here? Previous pick: Jake Long.

2. St. Louis - Jake Long, OT, Michigan - Even if Orlando Pace comes back, the Rams need to plan for their future, and it’s not Alex Barron at left tackle. Previous pick: Chris Long.

3. Atlanta - Glenn Dorsey, DT, Louisiana State - The Falcons are starting from scratch at defensive tackle, having cut Rod Coleman and losing Trey Lewis to a knee injury. Previous pick: Vernon Gholston.

4. Oakland - Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State - Something tells me the Raiders are going to pass on Darren McFadden and an offensive tackle, and grab the draft’s best edge rusher. Previous pick: McFadden.

5. Kansas City - Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State - The Chiefs are looking for at least three new starters on the line. Plus, K.C. might get either Minnesota’s or Tampa Bay’s first-round selection for Jared Allen. Previous pick: Dorsey.

6. New York Jets - Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas - McFadden has the speed and versatility to add another dimension to Brian Schottenheimer’s offense. He’s too tempting. Previous pick: Matt Ryan.

7. New England - Keith Rivers, LB, USC - Rivers could wind up being the only linebacker taken in the first round, but he’s an outstanding one and a good fit for the Patriots. Previous pick: Rivers.

8. Baltimore - Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College - Now that Steve McNair has called it a career, it’s officially time to start fresh at quarterback. Previous pick: Clady.

9. Cincinnati - Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC - Strike one: Bengals fail to trade for Shaun Rogers. Strike two: They whiff on Dewayne Robertson. They won’t swing and miss this time. Previous pick: Ellis.

10. New Orleans - Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy - There’s lots of talk about the Saints packaging picks to trade into the top five. McKelvin could be the steal of this round, though. Previous pick: McKelvin.

11. Buffalo - Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State - Bills have no prayer of competing with pass-crazy New England without better corners. Previous pick: Devin Thomas.

12. Denver - Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois - The Broncos will try to either trade up or down. Either way, Mendenhall is a good fit for their system. Previous pick: Rodgers-Cromartie.

13. Carolina - Brandon Albert, G, Virginia - The Panthers would like to trade up, possibly for Clady. If they stay put, they get the draft’s best guard by far. Previous pick: Derrick Harvey.

14. Chicago - Jeff Otah, T, Pittsburgh - Bears are betting Otah will instantly upgrade their running game. Plus, they might be able to move John Tait to the right side. Previous pick: Otah.

15. Detroit - Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida - The Lions want a defensive end here and will wait for a running back - maybe Kevin Smith or Ray Rice - in the second. Previous pick: Mendenhall.

16. Arizona - Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon - Despite his ankle problems, Stewart is the best running back on the board at this point. If Cardinals go defense, it’s Phillip Merling. Previous pick: Stewart.

17. Minnesota - Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida - Some scouts think Jenkins would be considered the No. 1 corner had he not skipped the Senior Bowl. Previous pick: Jenkins.

18. Houston - Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt - The only positions the Texans need to fill on their offensive line are tackle, guard and center. Oh… is that all? Previous pick: Williams.

19. Philadelphia - Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State - This is the year that receivers take the big tumble. Thomas is a solid pick here, but he might not get past Buffalo at 11. Previous pick: Aqib Talib.

20. Tampa Bay - Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas State - Bucs have corners Ronde Barber and Phillip Buchanon, but need to build for the future after losing Brian Kelly. Previous pick: Limas Sweed.

21. Washington - Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina - A lot of people think the Redskins will take Calais Campbell here, but I say Campbell slips into the second. Previous pick: Balmer.

22. Dallas - Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona - The Cowboys go for need. In doing so, they decide to pass on some tempting value at receiver: DeSean Jackson and Sweed.

23. Pittsburgh - Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson - The Steelers had the league’s top-ranked defense last year - great against the run and pass - but Mike Tomlin thinks they can do better. Previous pick: Branden Albert.

24. Tennessee - Limas Sweed, WR, Texas - With no Pacman Jones, the Titans are going to need a receiver who can double as a return specialist. Sweed is their man. Previous pick: DeSean Jackson.

25. Seattle - Fred Davis, TE, USC - A former high school running back, Davis finished his USC career as the school’s record-holder in receptions by a tight end. Previous pick: Davis.

26. Jacksonville - Lawrence Jackson, DE, USC - Penciled in to potentially start on Jacksonville’s defensive line are Brent Hawkins, Jeremy Mincey and Kenny Pettway. In a word: Who? Previous pick: Jackson.

27. San Diego -Sam Baker, OT, USC - Three Trojans in a row? Chargers will try to trade down. (Anyone want to trade up for quarterback Brian Brohm?) Otherwise, Baker replaces Shane Olivea. Previous pick: Gosder Cherilus.

28. Dallas - Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas - The Cowboys probably could trade down a few spots and pick up Jones near the top of the second round. Regardless, they need a running back, and Jones is best available. Previous pick: Antoine Cason.

29. San Francisco - James Hardy, WR, Indiana - At 6 feet 6, Hardy is two inches taller than Oklahoma’s Malcolm Kelly - and has a significantly better time in the 40, which matters. Previous pick: Quentin Groves.

30. Green Bay - Martellus Bennett, TE, Texas A&M - The Packers might be able to trade into the early second to get Bennett. Another possibility is Cason. Previous pick: Duane Brown.

31. New York Giants - Jerod Mayo, LB, Tennessee - Although free safety is the Giants’ biggest need, Mayo’s stock is rising and he falls under the “best available” category. Previous pick: Kenny Phillips.

sam.farmer@latimes.com