Sam Farmer’s NFL Week 11 picks

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Glantz-Culver (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 8-5 (.615); season 96-50-1 (.658). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 5-8 (.386); season 81-66 (.551).

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Atlanta (3-6) at Carolina (3-5-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Falcons 27, Panthers 21

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Pick ‘em. O/U: 47.

Carolina is coming off a short week, and defensive tackle Star Lotulelei was carted off with a nasty ankle injury. Bad sign for a defense that was already terrible in the red zone.

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Seattle (6-3) at Kansas City (6-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Chiefs 21, Seahawks 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Chiefs by 2. O/U: 42 1/2.

The Seahawks humiliated the Giants with 350 yards rushing, but now Seattle is going up against the only defense that has yet to allow a rushing touchdown. Chiefs are quietly building momentum.

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San Francisco (5-4) at N.Y. Giants (3-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

49ers 23, Giants 20

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 707.

Line: 49ers by 4. O/U: 44.

The 49ers have lost linebacker Patrick Willis for the season but they’re getting Aldon Smith back. The Giants could give them problems, but the 49ers will hit the road and hang on.

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Tampa Bay (1-8) at Washington (3-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Redskins 28, Buccaneers 18

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Redskins by 7 1/2. O/U: 45 1/2.

The Redskins are better than a lot of people think, and their last three games have been decided by a combined eight points. Put simply, the Buccaneers are lousy.

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Minnesota (4-5) at Chicago (3-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Vikings 23, Bears 21

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Bears by 3. O/U: 46 1/2.

While the Vikings are rested, the Bears are reeling. Chicago has yet to win at home this season, and has been outscored in the first halves of the last three games, 94-7.

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Houston (4-5) at Cleveland (6-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Browns 24, Texans 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Browns by 3. O/U: 41 1/2.

Have to go with the reliable Brian Hoyer over Texans newcomer Ryan Mallett, who threw four passes in three-plus seasons with New England. Cleveland does, in fact, rock.

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Cincinnati (5-3-1) at New Orleans (4-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Saints 28, Bengals 24

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Saints by 7. O/U: 50 1/2.

These are not the high-flying Saints we’ve come to know in recent years, nor is the Superdome as scary for opponents. But the Bengals are deflated after a flatline loss to Cleveland.

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Denver (7-2) at St. Louis (3-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Broncos 31, Rams 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Broncos by 9 1/2. O/U: 51.

The Rams are capable of an upset — ask Seattle or San Francisco — and play hard. But Peyton Manning picks defenses apart when the elements aren’t an issue. Could get hit, though.

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Oakland (0-9) at San Diego (5-4)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Chargers 34, Raiders 17

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Chargers by 10. O/U: 44 1/2.

Chargers are ready to make a statement and claw their way back to relevance. Winless Raiders have hung tough with good teams, but this is one that could get away from them.

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Philadelphia (7-2) at Green Bay (6-3)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Packers 31, Eagles 28

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Packers by 6. O/U: 55.

The Eagles look even better with Mark Sanchez than they were with Nick Foles, but it will take a lot to come off a short week and beat a scorching Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau.

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Detroit (7-2) at Arizona (8-1)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Lions 24, Cardinals 21

TV: None. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Cardinals by 1 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

This figures to be a close and low-scoring, but with Carson Palmer done for the season, the Lions get the edge. Drew Stanton has been an outstanding backup … but this is a lot to ask.

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New England (7-2) at Indianapolis (6-3)

Sunday, 5:30 p.m.

Colts 27, Patriots 23

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Colts by 3. O/U: 58.

This figures to be a phenomenal game, with both teams coming off their bye week and quarterbacked by two MVP candidates. I give the Colts a wafer-thin edge at home.

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Pittsburgh (6-4) at Tennessee (2-7)

Monday, 5:30 p.m.

Steelers 28, Titans 20

TV: ESPN.

Line: Steelers by 5 1/2. O/U: 47.

Pittsburgh is looking to bounce back from a terrible outing against the Jets, and the Titans are a textbook victim. Plus, Pittsburgh isn’t going to lose on Monday Night Football.