Racing! Jon White’s final Preakness rankings

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we start the final countdown to the Preakness.

Buckle up, this is a long one. But, first up, in the Times today, we’ve got a nice look at Elliott Walden, Justify’s principal owner. (Just click here.)

Now, let’s turn the floor over to our expert.

Jon White’s Preakness rankings

Our own Jon White is back with his Preakness Stakes rankings. It’s a small field and it’s difficult to see anyone winning but Justify, but Jon’s insights will make it even more clear. Take it away, Jon

1. Justify (1-2 morning line). “Trainer Bob Baffert has been Mr. Perfection when it comes to running Kentucky Derby winners in the Preakness. All four of Baffert's Derby winners prior to this year — Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998, War Emblem in 2002 and American Pharoah in 2015 — returned two weeks later to take the second leg in the Triple Crown at Pimlico.

“When asked for the reason he has been perfect with his Derby winners in the Preakness, Baffert has said all four proved they were the best horse when they won the Derby, then they just stayed ‘in the zone’ to come right back 14 days later and get the job done in Baltimore.

“Another reason cited by Baffert for having such success when running a Kentucky Derby winner in the Preakness was his experience in quarter-horse racing. During Baffert's time as a quarter-horse trainer, a horse generally would have to qualify for a futurity or derby one week earlier. Baffert learned to deal with ‘the quick turnaround in the quarter-horse world,’ as he puts it, by having a horse ‘run well enough’ to qualify for the futurity or derby, but ‘not too well.’ In other words, the goal was for the horse to qualify, then come back a week after the trial with plenty of gas still in the tank to be able to take a serious run at winning the futurity or derby.

“Baffert has six Preakness victories to his credit. He is tied with D. Wayne Lukas for the second-most wins in this race by a trainer. The record of seven was set in the 1880s by Robert Wyndham Walden.

“Yes, the Preakness is a horse race. And, yes, anything can happen in a horse race. But I think Justify is about as close to a sure thing as it gets. He faces just seven opponents this time compared to the 19 he had to outrun in the Derby. The early pace this time should not be anywhere close to as torrid as it was in the Derby. In terms of speed figures, Justify towers over this group. Wet track? No problem. Longtime racing fans may remember when horses who often did well on a wet track would get a mud mark next to their name in the Daily Racing Form. Considering Justify now has won on a muddy track at Santa Anita and a sloppy track at Churchill Downs, he no doubt would be well on his way to getting a mud mark.

“Pimlico oddsmaker Keith Feustle has installed Justify as a 1-2 morning-line favorite. I expect Justify to be an even shorter price than that. It appears to me that it’s all systems go for the outstanding equine athlete to keep his unblemished record intact in the Preakness and head to the June 9 Belmont Stakes with a chance to become the sport's 13th Triple Crown winner."

2. Good Magic (3-1 morning line). “The Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male of 2017 ran his heart out down the stretch in the 2018 Kentucky Derby, but he just never could close the gap on Justify. Good Magic had to settle for second. It appears to me that there is a very good chance Good Magic also is going to finish second in the Preakness.

“Curlin, Good Magic's sire, won the 2007 Preakness. But it does not bode well for Good Magic in his attempt to become a Preakness winner himself that horses who finished second in the Kentucky Derby have won the Preakness only three times in the last 57 years (Summer Squall in 1990, Prairie Bayou in 1993 and Exaggerator in 2016).”

3. Bravazo (20-1 morning line). “He was no match for Justify and Good Magic in the Kentucky Derby. But I thought Bravazo's effort was decent under the circumstances. He was farther back early than expected after getting bumped in his hindquarters during the opening strides. After that, Bravazo raced wide and rallied to reach fourth in upper stretch before finishing sixth at 66-1.

“Five years ago, like Bravazo this year, Oxbow finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby for Lukas. Oxbow then won the Preakness in a 15-1 upset. I doubt Bravazo is going to join Oxbow as a Lukas-trained Preakness winner. But perhaps Bravazo can run well enough to hit the board at a big price.

4. Quip (12-1 morning line). “He won the Tampa Bay Derby and ran second in the Arkansas Derby. After skipping the Kentucky Derby, Quip comes into this race relatively fresh. But it is a rarity when the Preakness is won by a horse who did not run in the Kentucky Derby. Just four of the last 34 Preakness winners (Red Bullet in 2000, Bernardini in 2006, Rachel Alexander in 2009 and Cloud Computing in 2017) did not start in the Derby.

“There also is common ownership for Quip and Justify, something that I just can't help but view as a negative for Quip in this race. I find it hard to believe these owners actually would put someone in the Preakness that could possibly derail Justify's opportunity for a Triple Crown sweep, a feat that would be worth millions if Justify achieves it. Thus, to me, it highly unlikely Quip will beat Justify. But Quip, like Bravazo, is a candidate to hit the board.”

5. Sporting Chance (30-1 morning line). “After he did not have sufficient points to get into the Kentucky Derby, Sporting Chance ran fourth in the Pat Day Mile for Lukas. A quirky sort, Sporting Chance twice has ducked out sharply in the stretch. He did it when he won the Hopeful Stakes last year at Saratoga. He did it again this year in the Blue Grass Stakes when he finished third and was disqualified to fourth. Superfecta bettors should bear in mind Sporting Chance has finished worse than fourth only once in seven career starts."

6. Lone Sailor (15-1 morning line). “Fifteenth early in the Kentucky Derby, Lone Sailor encountered a roadblock on the far turn before coming on to end up eighth at 24-1. He has lost seven in a row. It is the longest losing streak of anyone in this year's Preakness.”

7. Tenfold (20-1 morning line). “He's light in experience, but seems to have a fair amount of ability. This will be only his fourth career start. After winning his first two races, Tenfold ran fifth in the Arkansas Derby. His sire is Curlin. Steve Asmussen, Tenfold's conditioner, trained Curlin when he won the Preakness in 2007.”

8. Diamond King (30-1 morning line). “He won the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel, but appears to be biting off more than he can chew here. At least his new rider, Hall of Famer and four-time Eclipse Award winner Javier Castellano, is one of the best.”

Handicapping Saturday’s Preakness card

As an added feature, Jeff Siegel and Aaron Vercruysse of xbtv.com offer up their exclusive analysis of Saturday’s eight stakes races, including the Preakness. Lots of insight about a lot of races where you can make some money. It’s really good and comprehensive. Do yourself a favor and watch. (Just click here.)

If you missed their look at Wednesday’s draw. (Just click here.)

Jeff and Aaron will be back for some Belmont previews in a few weeks.

More Preakness news

The Preakness notes team was in full rain gear on Thursday and are glad to share some of their information with you.

--The rain stopped Thursday at 8:30 a.m. and Justify went out for a 1 ½ mile controlled gallop over a very wet track. It was his first ever visit to the Pimlico surface. “I’m just happy with the way he went around there,” Baffert said. “He was just getting warmed up. He was ready to do a lot more, but we didn’t want him to do too much. We’ll basically do the same tomorrow when we go out.”

--Good Magic didn’t have quite as good timing, going out in a steady downpour at 7:30 a.m. Jockey Jose Ortiz, who was supposed to arrive late Thursday night, is confident in his colt. “It’s a small field and if we have a clean trip, I’m sure we could turn the tables on [Justify] on Saturday. We just have to make up 2 ½ lengths [from the Kentucky Derby]. It’s not like he beat us 10 or 20 lengths.” Trainer Chad Brown is expected to arrive on Friday.

--Quip, who arrived on Wednesday afternoon, hit the Pimlico track for a jog on Thursday morning. “We’ll see how it goes [Friday],” trainer Rodolphe Brisset said. “It will be 5:30 a.m. training, for sure. I’ll want to get it done on a tight track. We’ll have more rain coming in. He’ll gallop a mile or something like that.”

--It was also Lone Sailor’s first visit to the Pimlico slop. Exercse rider Maurice Sanchez jogged him about ¾ of a mile clockwise and wanted to school him but there was a barrier blocking the paddock, Sanchez then did the scheduled 1 ½ mile gallop. Of course, for the Preakness, the horses are saddled on the turf course, not in the paddock.

--Wayne Lukas sent Bravazo out for some light exercise, leaving Sporting Chance to walk the shedrow on the rainy morning. Lukas says he plans to take them both out on Friday. Lukas seems resigned to a Justify win. “He’s the best horse,” he said. “It’s that simple. He looks terrific. He’s doing well. … He’s going to be very, very hard to handle.”

--Tenfold galloped “an easy mile” according to assistant trainer Scott Blasi. Afteward, he was wearing his camo blanket to promote Homes for Our Troops, which builds mortgage-free homes for injured military veterans. It’s funded in part by Sentient Jet and Tenfold’s owner Ron Winchell.

--Diamond King, who shipped in from Pennsylvania on Wednesday, jogged two miles on the Pimlico slop. “I was going to gallop him but with the track the way it was, I just jogged him,” trainer John Servis said. “He looked good. He was reaching, he was bucking and playing. He was happy.”

Preakness handicapping contests

We know there are a lot of handicapping contests out there worth some big money. But, it’s kind of great to see one in which you can’t win much and the $10 entry fee goes to the Pancreatic Cancer Action Network. It’s put together by a group of people who wanted to honor James Edwards, Jr., who died of pancreatic cancer in 2015. The group is called Team Big Jim, and as you might guess, Jim was an avid horse player. This is more about people trying to do a good thing. So, if you’re interested, take a look at the website by clicking here.

Santa Anita also has a two-day handicapping contest, except it’s for real money. You can read about it here.

Santa Anita review

I’m picking the feature for Thursday’s card, the first race. I know in Thursday’s newsletter we were all over Brave Helios, owned by my newsletter backup extraordinare Eric (Manny Mota) Sondheimer and newsletter contributor (see above) Jeff Siegel. The horse looked sharp in the parade, on his toes, like he was ready to run.

But, alas, (how often do you get to use the word alas?) when the race was run, he was in position crossing the dirt as one of the few closers in a race full of speed, but he just didn’t get it done. He finished fourth. And then the stewards, in what might be a make up call for not DQing Achira more than a week ago, decided to make an example of the gentlemanly Brave Helios and placed him fifth in the six-horse race. (OK, I get it. Cheap shot. Too soon.) Actually, BH had a little trouble staying straight. How much trouble, that’s for others to decide.

Eric texted me saying, “prep race.” Wish I had used prep money. Just kidding, the boy didn’t look too bad after eight months vacation. Brave Helios will be back and worth another shot.

The winner of the 6 ½ furlong down the hill race was longest-shot-on-the board Uh Oh Baby, with Eric’s favorite jockey, Joe Talamo aboard, paid $43.40 to win.

Santa Anita preview

As Santa Anita tries to get to the finish line in its monstrously long meeting, you’re likely to see as many turf races as it can run. Those races usually fill fast and can cover any shortage of horses. Friday’s card, eight races starting at 12:30 p.m., has four races on the grass. Three are going a mile and one is down the hill at 6 ½ furlongs.

There are three allowance/optional claimers, all worth $56,000. There is also a $54,000 maiden race. The field sizes, in order: 8, 6, 8, 7, 9, 11, 7, 9.

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

FIFTH RACE: No. 4 Tough It Out (4-1)

Made first start off the Vladimir Cerin claim and recorded a sharp win when facing softer over the course at this same distance. No reason the older gelding can't move into this starter handicap race and win right back for the red-hot stable.

Thursday’s result: Armour Plate (5-1) contested a three-way pace battle from the rail but tired badly at the top of the stretch.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Los Alamitos weekend preview

This weekly segment is in the hands of Orlando Gutierrez, marketing and media maven at Los Al. So, the floor is yours, Orlando.

“The Los Alamitos grandstand will open at 9:30 a.m. on Friday for simulcasting of the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes from Pimlico. The Vessels Club will open at 10 a.m. On Preakness day, the grandstand will open at 7 a.m. and Vessels Club and clubhouse will open at 9 a.m.

“The eight-race program on Friday night will be headed by a trio of races for 2-year-olds headed for the Ed Burke Million Futurity trials on June 10. Twenty-four juveniles will run on Friday with Perrys Pleasure the marquee name. The filly is a half-sister to last year’s AQHA champion 2-year-old J Fire Up. Perrys Pleasure has looked like a younger version of J Fire Up during morning works, enough that track announcer Ed Burgart has twice singled her out on his Twitter feed @qheddie.

“Friday’s card starts at 7 p.m.

“The Revenant, Ditto Head, and Yanque are all familiar faces in major stakes races at Los Alamitos. Over the course of their careers, the three California-bred geldings have each qualified to four major stakes races at Los Al, but are all still searching for a stakes win. That could change for at least one of them on Saturday night, as Yanque, The Revenant, and Ditto Head are three of the top contenders in the feature event, the $25,000 Dillingham Handicap at 400 yards. Nine horses will be in action in the Dillingham with the aforementioned sprinters coming in as the three richest among the quarter horses in this race. CM Boom Shakalaka and Dont Foose With Me finished 1-2 in the James Smith Memorial Handicap on April 6 and also return in the Dillingham. First post for the nine-race card is also 7 p.m.

“The weekend’s marquee race is Sunday night when 10 juveniles race in the Grade 2, $321,800 Robert Adair Kindergarten Futurity at 300 yards. Reliance Ranches will be represented by three horses in the 300-yard futurity headed by fastest qualifier SC Money Maker. The gelding by Pyc Paint Your Wagon ran third in the Oklahoma Futurity on March 24 and then traveled to Orange County to post a 1 ¼ length win in his Kindergarten heat. His winning time of 15.31 seconds was nearly a length faster than the one posted by Striver, who was the second fastest qualifier with a time of :15.44. Mike Robbins, who saddled quarter-horse legend First Down Dash to victory in the 1986 Kindergarten, trains SC Money Maker plus Pack Light and SC Coronada for Reliance Ranches. Striver is trained by Scott Willoughby, but is owned by his assistant trainer Juan Carlos Chavez. “He’s the first horse that I’ve ever owned,” said Chavez of his $17,000 purchase at the Los Alamitos Equine Sale last year. The Robert Adair Kindergarten is the 10^th and final race on Sunday’s card.”

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

THIRD RACE: No. 5 Unusual Kiddy (7-2)

Even though she was outworked in both of her drills, I thought she could have gone much faster. She was well in hand when outworked by 1 ¾ lengths in initial 12.8 drill and was under a big hold during the final strides when second best in a three-team set with a 12.6 time on May 3. She debuts in a maiden $12,500 claimer and hails from high-percentage two-year-old barn of trainer Jaime Gomez. I suggest a win wager and exacta boxes of 5-3 and 5-4 with class droppers Everybodyneedsahero and Kingman Girl.

Final thought

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And now the stars of the show, Thursday’s results and Friday’s entries.

UH OH BABY sped to the early lead, set the pace a bit off the rail then angled in and dueled inside leaving the hill and into the stretch, inched away in midstretch, kicked clear and held under urging. DRIZZY settled, off rail, angled in hill, swung three wide into the stretch, came out in upper stretch, drifted in despite left handed urging in deep stretch and closed willingly to just miss. CROISSANT stalked three deep then bid outside the winner to duel for the lead, fought back in upper stretch and held third. BRAVE HELIOS tugged his way between horses early then stalked outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch, drifted out despite right handed urging past midstretch and was outfinished. RAVEN CREEK bobbled in a bit of a slow start, chased inside, came out into the stretch and again in upper stretch, steadied when crowded past midstretch and lacked the needed rally.tu. VUTZAK tugged a bit off the rail then between foes, stalked inside down the hill and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. Following stewards' inquiry, BRAVE HELIOS was disqualified and placed fifth for interference past midstretch. Rail on hill at 14 feet.

MISCHIEVOUS SONG angled in and dueled outside a rival, kicked clear on the second turn, angled in entering the stretch, was kept to urging to widen past midstretch and was under a hold the final sixteenth. SAPPHIRE KID had good early speed and dueled inside, had the winner get away on the second turn, came out into the stretch and bested the others. EMPRESS OF LOV pulled along the inside early, saved ground stalking the pace, cut the corner into the stretch and held third. WAMPUS stalked three deep on the first turn then between horses, continued just off the rail then outside a rival leaving the second turn and weakened. MILLIE JOEL pulled between horses into the first turn, stalked a bit off the rail on the backstretch, continued just off the inside on the second turn and also weakened. INSTINCTUAL KASH stalked three deep, dropped back leaving the second turn, came three wide into the stretch and gave way.

SIX PACK GAL had speed four wide then inched away, angled in into and on the turn, set the pace inside and won clear under a brisk hand ride and a long hold late. ROLINGA saved ground stalking the winner throughout and was clearly second best. DERBY LUCK between horses early, stalked a bit off the rail then outside a rival on the turn and into the stretch and held third. SWING THOUGHTS also had speed between rivals then stalked outside, continued three deep on the turn and into the stretch and lacked a rally. SETTLE IT fractious in the gate, was sent between horses early, stalked just off the rail on the backstretch and turn and lacked a response in the drive. RON'S CAT chased outside on the backstretch and turn, came four wide into the stretch and did not rally. JELLYBEANKRISTINE broke a bit slowly, settled just off the inside, came out leaving the turn and four wide into the stretch and was not a threat. AWEPOLLONIA bobbled at the break when the ground broke out behind, chased off the rail early then angled in for the turn and weakened.

PRINCESS LEIA stalked inside then a bit off the rail, came out into the stretch, took the lead outside the runner-up in midstretch and inched clear late under urging. ATREVIDA dueled outside a rival then between foes on the backstretch, continued outside a foe on the second turn, took the lead leaving that turn, fought back inside the winner in midstretch and just held second. DIZZY DIVA stalked three deep then outside a rival, came out leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch and was edged for the place. ASEM had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back on the second turn and weakened in the drive. REINAHERMOSA settled off the rail then angled in and saved ground chasing the pace and had little left for the stretch.

MOVE OVER (GB) broke through the gate and ran until nearing half way down the hill, stalked outside a rival then between foes leaving the hill, came out four wide into the stretch and rallied under urging to get up four wide on the line. CALEXMAN dueled three deep, took a short lead in the stretch and continued gamely between foes late. HEARTFULLOFSTARS chased inside, came out on the dirt crossing and three deep into the stretch and rallied between foes late. AXELROD dueled between horses, fought back inside through the final furlong and continued gamely to the wire. ARMOUR PLATE had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back leaving the hill and weakened in the stretch. GRAYCASTER chased off the rail then three deep leaving the hill, angled in on the dirt crossing and had little left for the stretch. Rail on hill at 14 feet.

MOJGAN broke in and was bumped at the start, went up four wide to duel for the lead, inched away off the rail on the turn, kicked clear under urging in the stretch and held. JEST A PRINCESS had good early speed and dueled inside then stalked along the rail on the turn and into the stretch and came back at the winner late. TANDALICIOUS broke in a bit, stalked outside then three deep, continued off the rail on the turn and four wide nearing and into the stretch and bested the others. THE INNOCENT ONE bumped between foes at the break, had speed outside then dueled three deep between foes, stalked three wide on the turn and into the stretch and weakened. ANGELIC chased outside then off the rail, went three deep on the turn and four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. SHE FOX broke a bit slowly, chased just off the rail then outside a rival leaving the turn, drifted in on that one nearing the sixteenth pole and also weakened. NOW BLESSED broke out and bumped a rival, dueled between horses then stalked between foes on the turn and weakened in the drive. SMART DORIE saved ground chasing the pace, steadied in tight along the rail nearing the sixteenth pole, came out and weakened.

TIME AND CHANCE had good early speed and dueled between horses throughout and gamely prevailed late under urging. PRINCESS ASHLYN stalked early then bid three deep between rivals to vie for command, dueled three deep on the turn and in the stretch, took a slim advantage in midstretch and continued willingly to the wire. CIOPPINO PASADINO went up inside to duel for the lead, fought back along the rail on the turn and through a long drive and also went on gamely to the end. REVENUE VIRGINIUS stalked off the rail then inside into the turn, came out leaving the turn and between rivals into the stretch and was outfinished. ADIOS CALI chased outside a rival on the backstretch, split horses on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. SCATHING a bit slow into stride, saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch, drifted out from the whip in upper stretch then had the rider lose the whip in midstretch and did not rally. SHARONA SUNSET stalked a bit off the rail then inside on the turn and into the stretch and weakened. TANGLED UP IN JU stalked outside then bid four wide on the backstretch to press the pace, fell back outside on the turn, came four wide into the stretch and had little left for the drive.

NAVAJO DREAMER (IRE) stalked a bit off the rail then inside, came out into the stretch, took the lead outside the pacesetter in upper stretch, inched clear under urging in midstretch and held gamely. LADYBUG chased outside then three deep, angled in alongside a rival leaving the hill, came out in upper stretch and finished willingly. STRENGTHINNUMBERS chased between horses then outside a rival into the stretch, split foes in midstretch and edged a rival for the show. SHE'S LEGIT chased outside a rival then a bit off the rail, steadied in tight off heels midway on the hill, came three deep into the stretch and was edged for third. TRUE TESTAMENT sped to the early lead, set the pace inside, fought back in upper stretch and weakened late. ONE UPPER stalked outside then three deep on the hill, came four wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. TIZ GOLDILUX close up stalking the pace outside a rival then between foes leaving the hill, came three deep into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. GIA LULA chased between horses then a bit off the rail, angled to the inside leaving the hill and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. CONVINCE stalked four wide then three deep, continued four wide leaving the hill, drifted six wide into the stretch and weakened. NO WINE UNTASTED saved ground chasing the pace, fell back some leaving the hill and into the stretch and also weakened. Rail on hill at 14 feet.