Racing! Justify retires, Jon White looks at his legacy

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we wish Justify well in his new career.

The big, but not surprising, news is obviously the retirement of Justify. The move had been telegraphed for the past couple of weeks and I think most people figured it out when he was set to parade at Del Mar. On Wednesday, it was announced that the injury to his left front ankle makes a fall campaign an impossibility. So, after six races, we have the first undefeated Triple Crown champion.

Saturday, at about 3:45 p.m., will be your last chance to see him in California. Santa Anita had a crowd of more than 17,000 when Justify paraded there.

Mike Smith will also be signing autographs between noon and 1 p.m. Hopefully, that’s not his whip hand, because it will be tired. And Smith is so generous with his time it’s difficult to believe he will get up and leave people in line. If you’ve never met him, he’s just as nice as he appears.

It’s expected that Justify’s breeding rights will be sold to Coolmore for around $75 million. So, let’s do the math. It’s said his initial stud fee will be $150,000. He can easily cover 200 mares a year. He’ll cover more but not all will produce live foals. That get’s us to $30 million in stud fees. Now, there are expenses but $30 million will cover that. And based on the quality of his progeny, his fee could go up.

Yeah, you can see why they didn’t want to risk anything with this colt.

It does make you appreciate people such as the connections at Juddmonte Farms who let Arrogate run as 4-year-old, even though it didn’t end as well as all had hoped.

The math just doesn’t work for a Triple Crown winner to keep racing past the age of 3. Too bad in a struggling sport in desperate need of superstars.

Here’s the story we wrote about Justify’s retirement with quotes from the principals. Just click here.

Jon White looks at Justify’s legacy

We asked our resident racing historian, Jon White, to look at how history will judge Justify.

“That Justify had only six lifetime starts no doubt is going to be viewed as a negative vis-a-vis his standing among the all-time greats in the eyes of many. That he never raced against older horses, unlike fellow recent Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, also will be held against Justify by many. American Pharoah did face older horses in his final career start when he put an exclamation point on his racing career with a 6 1/2-length victory in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

“On the other hand, it is a plus for Justify that he retires from racing with an aura of invincibility. It's also to Justify's credit that he managed to accomplish as much as he did in a relatively short period of time. The ride he took racing on from his debut victory at Santa Anita on Feb. 18 to his Belmont Stakes triumph on June 9 was extraordinary. He became the first Triple Crown winner who did not race at 2. He was the first Kentucky Derby winner who did not start at 2 since Apollo in 1882. He also broke the record for defeating the most total starters in the three Triple Crown races. Justify beat a total of 35 other starters in the three races, breaking the record of 32 set by War Admiral in 1937.

“Of this country's 13 Triple Crown winners, the only one besides Justify to not race after the Belmont Stakes was Count Fleet. Count Fleet was retired after he rapped an ankle during his 25-length tour de force in the 1943 Belmont. Despite not racing after the Belmont, Count Fleet ranked No. 5 on the BloodHorse magazine's list of the Top 100 Racehorses of the 20th Century, behind only No. 1 Man o' War, No. 2 Secretariat, No. 3 Citation and No. 4 Kelso.

“But while both Justify and Count Fleet were retired after the Belmont, Count Fleet's body of work certainly was much more robust than Justify's. Count Fleet won a total of 16 races compared to just six for Justify. Count Fleet was the 2-year-old male champion. Justify did not even race at 2.

“It is clear that Justify was ‘a phenomenal talent,’ as Bob Baffert said after the colt won the Santa Anita Derby in only his third lifetime start. But many understandably will downgrade Justify to some extent for not racing more than he did when trying to determine where he belongs among the sport's all-time greats.”

Del Mar review

There was a decent-sized upset in the rare Wednesday stakes race at Del Mar. Beach View had a great rail-saving trip, which can be important in a 1 ½ mile race, to win the Grade 3 $100,000 Cougar II Handicap.

He beat the heavily favored Hoppertunity by a widening 4 ¾ lengths. Beach View paid $20.00, $5.80 and $3.80. Full of Luck finished third.

“He was 0-for-2 on the dirt, but one of them was the first race of his career and the other was the Tokyo City Cup, where he ran the best number of his life,” said Leonard Powell, the winning trainer. “I thought we would be a bit closer to the pace, but [jockey] Rafael [Bejarano] made the right call. We’ll see how he comes back. … We have options with him.”

Bejarano talked about the easy trip he had.

“My horse has speed, but we came away from there nice and easy and he was relaxed, so I took a little hold,” Bejarano said. “My position was good throughout. Then coming for home, I got through inside and he went. He likes the distance. It’s good for him.”

Beach View’s next race could be the Del Mar Handicap on Aug. 18.

Del Mar preview

Thursday’s card at Del Mar isn’t as good as Wednesday, which included a graded stakes race, and the field sizes are shrinking back a little but all is still good at the track. Overall handle is up at Del Mar, although on-site attendance was down on opening day and the on-site handle is about the same.

Thursday’s eight-race card starts at 2 p.m. Five of the races are claimers and there are three races (the last three) are just for Cal-breds.

The feature is the seventh, a one mile allowance/optional claimer on the turf for fillies and mares 3 and up. It’s carries a purse of $62,000.

X S Gold is the 5-2 favorite for trainer James Cassidy and jockey Kent Desormeaux. She’s won one of her eight lifetime starts but finished second in her last two races, allowance races at Santa Anita.

Bob Ike’s DMR pick of the day

SEVENTH RACE: No. 7 Ragazza Di Vola (7-2)

A five-time winner facing a group of one-time winners, let's go with this Golden Gate shipper from the good John Martin stable. She circled wide on the far turn but didn't follow through in her most recent but perhaps she can return to her earlier form with a change in venue.

Wednesday’s result: Tomasino (2-1) got bet down from his morning line but could only manage a non-threatening third vs. $8,000 claimers.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Final thought

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And now the stars of the show, Wednesday’s results and Thursday’s entries

DURANGA stalked outside then off the rail on the turn, came five wide into the stretch, rallied under urging to the front approaching the sixteenth pole and won clear. ALWAYS BELIEVE had speed off the rail then dueled three deep between foes on the backstretch and turn and into the stretch and gained the place. MIZ TIANJIN a step slow into stride, went up along the rail to duel for the lead, put a head in front into the turn, inched away in midstretch, drifted out slightly from the whip an eighth of a mile out and held third. EMPRESS OF LOV stalked between foes early then bid between rivals to duel for the lead on the backstretch and turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. TEE EM EYE between horses early, stalked off the rail then a bit off the fence on the turn, angled to the inside into the stretch and lacked a rally. ROBIN'S LOVE had speed outside then dueled four wide on the backstretch and turn and into the stretch and weakened. DIZZY DIVA broke a bit slowly, dropped back off the rail chasing the pace, came four wide into the stretch and lacked a further response.

TIDAL EFFECT chased off the rail then outside, came three wide into the stretch, bid outside the runner-up under left handed urging to gain the lead in deep stretch and gamely prevailed. STREET TO INDY stalked inside, bid along the rail to gain the lead on the second turn, inched away in midstretch, fought back in deep stretch but could not hold off the winner. EARNEDNEVERGIVEN dueled outside a rival then inched away a bit off the rail, battled outside the runner-up on the second turn and bested the others. MOMMA'S BABY BOY angled in on the first turn and chased inside, came out on the second turn and three wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. LITTLEBITAMEDAL bobbled some just after the start, stalked off the rail then outside a rival, came a bit wide into the stretch and weakened. THEFOURFORTYFOURTH dueled inside then stalked a bit off the rail, was between foes into the second turn, found the inside again into the stretch and also weakened. BARTLETT HALL pulled between foes early, tugged his way up outside a rival to stalk the pace, dropped back between foes on the second turn, angled to the fence into the stretch and also weakened.

BOW AND ARROW chased alongside a rival then outside on the turn, came five wide into the stretch, took a short lead outside under some left handed urging in midstretch, drifted in and brushed with the runner-up in deep stretch and gamely prevailed. LAMBO LUXX stalked outside, went up four wide on the turn and into the stretch to put a head in front, also drifted in through the drive while fighting back and brushed with the winner in deep stretch. TOMASINO close up stalking the pace between horses, came three deep into the stretch and edged a rival for the show. BARGAINING prompted the pace three deep then outside a rival leaving the backstretch and between foes on the turn and into the stretch and was edged for third. RED WINE AND DINE had good early speed and set a pressured pace inside, fought back into the stretch and weakened some in the final furlong but was edged for a minor share. LOUDEN'S GRAY saved ground chasing the pace, came out into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. UPPERCLASSMAN had speed between foes then stalked a bit off the rail leaving the backstretch, angled to the inside into the stretch and weakened. ROCKET FUEL a step slow into stride, saved ground off the pace, came out into the stretch and did not rally. ADRIATIC SON stalked of the rail, dropped back on the turn and had little left for the stretch. A claim of foul by the rider of the runner-up against the winner for alleged interference in the stretch was not allowed by the stewards, who ruled both runners drifted in and the minor contact between them did not alter the original order of finish.

STORMY LIBERAL stalked three deep, bid outside the runner-up into the stretch, brushed with that one past midstretch and gamely prevailed late under good handling. TRIBALIST sped to the early lead, inched away and set the pace a bit off the rail then inside, fought back along the fence into and through the stretch, brushed with the winner past midstretch and continued gamely to the end. RIGHT HAND MAN broke a bit slowly, chased just off the rail then inside, came out leaving the turn and into the stretch and gained the show three deep late. VORTICITY stalked a bit off the inside, came three wide into the stretch and was edged for third between foes late. LAW ABIDIN CITIZEN saved ground stalking the pace throughout and was edged for a minor share. TIZ A BILLY stalked outside then alongside a rival, came four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. ADENS DREAM close up stalking the pace between horses then outside a rival leaving the turn, weakened in the stretch. The stewards conducted an inquiry into the stretch run between the top pair but made no change when they ruled the minor contact between them did not alter the original order of finish.

HOSS CARTWRIGHT sped to the early lead, set the pace a bit off the rail, continued along the inside in the stretch and won clear under urging. CAYATE stalked between foes then a bit off the rail into the turn, split rivals leaving the turn, came three wide into the stretch and was clearly second best. BLACK STORM chased off the rail then outside on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and edged a rival late for the show. FRIENDLY STEVE five wide early, stalked the pace four wide leaving the backstretch and on the turn and into the stretch and was edged for third. POISE TO STRIKE was close up stalking the pace inside, continued along the rail into the stretch and weakened. FOR THE HUSTLE sent between horses early, stalked between foes on the backstretch and turn and weakened in the drive. ACHIEVED broke slowly, angled in and settled inside, saved ground on the turn and into the stretch and lacked a response in the drive. SOUND LOGIC close up stalking the pace between horses, steadied in tight early on the turn, dropped back on the turn and gave way.

AMAZON CRY angled in and chased outside a rival, came three deep into the stretch, rallied under left handed urging to collar the runner-up nearing the wire and gamely prevailed. SOUTER (GB) stalked outside a rival then three deep leaving the backstretch and on the second turn and four wide into the stretch, bid outside to gain the lead in midstretch, inched away and was edged late. GLORIOUS CROWN angled in and pulled along the inside and was in tight into the first turn, saved ground, came out into the stretch and edged foes for the show. TASTE'S LEGEND saved ground chasing the pace, came out in midstretch and was edged for third. EXTREME HEAT angled in and pressed the pace outside a rival, fought back between foes in midstretch and lost third late. BOB'S BAD BOY saved ground stalking the pace to the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. JIMMY D settled a bit off the rail then outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. SON OF WAR angled in and stalked outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. SPA SHACKALACKA had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back in midstretch and weakened late. KINEMATICO broke in the air and slowly, settled inside, came out into thee stretch and lacked a further response.

BEACH VIEW chased off the inside then angled in leaving the first stretch and saved ground, bid inside into the stretch to gain the lead and won clear under urging. HOPPERTUNITY stalked a bit off the rail then inside, went up between foes leaving the backstretch, bid three deep between horses on the final turn and four wide into the stretch and was second best. FULL OF LUCK (CHI) close up stalking the pace three deep then outside a rival, bid between foes into and on the final turn and three wide into the stretch and held third. TWENTYTWENTYVISION saved ground stalking the pace, bid inside leaving the backstretch to gain the lead, dueled along the rail on the last turn then between foes into the stretch and weakened. LITTLE SCOTTY set the pace a bit off the rail then dueled inside a rival, drifted out and stalked four wide leaving the backstretch, bid again four wide on the last turn and five wide into the stretch and also weakened. PRINCE OF ARABIA settled outside the runner-up then chased off the rail into and on the final turn, came three wide into the stretch and lacked a further response. UNAPOLOGETIC stalked the early pace then bid outside the pacesetter, took back some five eighths out then re-bid between horses, fell back on the final turn and weakened.

SEA GLASS five wide early, stalked outside then off the rail, bid three deep leaving the turn and into the stretch, took a short lead nearing midstretch, fought back when headed in deep stretch and gamely prevailed. BELLE MONTE dueled four wide then three deep, battled outside a rival leaving the turn, put a head in front between foes into the stretch, fought back to a short lead inside the winner in deep stretch and was outgamed. VEILED HEAT bobbled at the start, chased off the rail, came out leaving the turn and four wide into the stretch and gained the show. BABY ICE saved ground chasing the pace, split horses in the stretch and lacked a rally. EURASIA chased inside, came out in midstretch and did not rally. RED BOMBER pressed the pace four wide, angled in and stalked outside a rival leaving the turn and weakened. GRACE HOPPER dropped back off the rail early, settled off the inside to the stretch and was not a threat. PRAY FOR CORDAY had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back leaving the turn and weakened in the stretch. AS A RULE broke a bit slowly, chased outside a rival, came four wide into the stretch and had little left for the drive. OMERTA had good early speed and dueled between horses, dropped back on the turn and gave way.