Racing! Biggest day of the year at Del Mar

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we get another handicapping lesson from Rob Henie.

Friday’s newsletter was a tribute to Jim Murray and it evoked a huge response from you readers. My email box blew up with thanks for bringing back a story from the best. I like to respond to as many emails as I can, but I know I didn’t get to a fraction of those that were sent to me on Friday.

Jim will never be forgotten and I’m sure he would be embarrassed by all of this.

Pacific Classic

It’s a really great racing day at Del Mar on Saturday and I’ll preview some of the other races down below. To advance the big race, I took a look at Pavel. You can read it here. The deal on Pavel is that he runs best when he’s all lathered up.

Owner Paul Reddam told a funny anecdote of when trainer Doug O’Neill called him before the Smarty Jones Stakes at Parx and told him the colt was all washed out and probably shouldn’t bet him. Reddam followed the advice and watched as Pavel won by six lengths. He was also washy when he won the Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs in his last race.

Pavel is the second favorite at 7-2.

The favorite is Accelerate at 8-5. Hank Wesch of Del Mar caught up with trainer John Sadler and asked him about his two-time Grade 1 winner.

“He’s had four really good works over this track,” Sadler told Wesch. “Had a bullet work the other day in 1:26 [over seven furlongs]. We’re feeling very good. You’d rather be the favorite than not.

“He’s done so much already this year. He’s won the Santa Anita Handicap and the Gold Cup so he has a good resume already. He’s got three races left this year. The Pacific Classic, one prep at Santa Anita and then the Breeders’ Cup.

“This is his third year here and he’s won every single year he’s been here. As a 3-year-old he won the Shared Belief. Last year he won the San Diego Handicap. He’s good on this track and the training has gone really smoothly. His work pattern has been steady and consistent.

“He’s shown that he can run this distance and the other thing we really like a lot is that he’s been running these big races and giving weight away. We get them at equal weights this time and I think that’s also an advantage.”

Remembering to never take any handicapping advice from me, I’ve been hearing a little backstretch buzz on Beach View, at 15-1.

Post is said to be at 6:43 p.m.

Breeders’ Cup, huh?

The Breeders’ Cup, as expected, announced the sites for their next three events: Santa Anita, Keeneland and Del Mar. But you already knew that because both the Times, this newsletter (I know, we’re the same) and San Diego Union-Tribune (they’re family) all reported it on Thursday morning.

So, it was with great hilarity when the Breeders’ Cup twitter account sent this out Friday morning: .@WSJ Exclusive: #BreedersCup Announces Future Host Sites. (It then linked to the Wall Street Journal story. By the way, the WSJ is a hard paywall, no free 10 stories like some sites give you. You only get to see the first 1 ½ paragraphs.)

The Wall Street Journal is really a great publication. It seems that the Breeders’ Cup had promised the Journal an exclusive on the worst kept secret in the business. At the Del Mar announcement, Craig Fravel, CEO and president of the Breeders’ Cup, jokingly (I think) said he was going to revoke the security clearance of all those involved in the story getting out. Guessing no more than a couple hundred people over three tracks were in the know.

So, if anyone asks you where you heard it first, you can tell them it was the Wall Street Journal, even if it’s not true.

Weekly handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Today’s lesson is from the fifth race at Del Mar. Rob, it’s yours.

“This is a maiden special weight at six furlongs, and we’ll look at the TRAINER-OWNER situation which often comes up, but few even consider in the handicapping process. When a trainer also owns the horse, it’s a bit different situation. First off, he doesn’t have to answer to every single drill by outside owners, or what type of race the horse should be running in once ready for the first try. He or she can work the horse as seen fit, and often times the placement is key. With this in mind, top selection is SATRAPA (#10). Hector Palma likes to run his horses at the lower levels, often with so-so type of drills, so the fact he’s running in a MSW, with very quick drills, not to mention Heriberto Figueroa up, a guy who so many trainers right now are turning to when asking for speed from the gate (funny, we remember back in the 80s when apprentice Martin Pedroza was in such demand as well, time flies), and one thing we like about Palma is that he often gives a wide variety of riders, nice opportunities (he teamed with Franco before Geovanni was getting a ton of mounts last February, a $34 WCHR top pick debut winner). So, the bottom line, Hector’s not answering to anyone, working and placing him as he sees fit. Very well meant, we believe. AIR JOCKEY (#1) comes from the Karen Headley barn, not exactly known for “smart money” and pounding their horses at the window, thus, the fact this one went off at 2-1 off the five-month layoff, was pretty significant. Now he’s back on schedule, with a pair of works to further point out his fitness, with good health creeping back into the picture, and as we remind members, good health opens the door to a good effort.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“WCHR Maiden Power Rating: +0.50 (average for the level)

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 10-1-9

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 2,6,7

“Negative Notes:

“6 Big Bad Gary - The same race every time, just too many poor efforts.

“7 Cayate - 0 for 13, often looking like the winner and never finishing late, we love to beat these types.

“First Timers:

“4 Leroy Pegasus - Will need the effort.

“9 Jefferson Davis - Drills are slow, so why is Hess running in a MSW? Likely they’ve been concentrating more on finishing in the mornings with strong gallop outs rather than flashing speed, and we’ll include with Bob’s longtime “go to jock” up in Hess.

“TOP PICK: SATRAPA (#10 4-1 Figueroa)

“SECOND CHOICE: AIR JOCKEY (#1 6-1 Conner)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Del Mar review

We’ll start with a note to Del Mar officials. The last two weeks of the season, the Friday night post moves up to 3:30 p.m. because the days are getting shorter. Well, why don’t you consider three weeks. The eighth and final race on Friday was almost unwatchable with the naked eye because it was so dark. Luckily, the giant videoboard and monitors have the ability to make it seem lighter. Consider this a friendly suggestion. We can say it was made by the Wall Street Journal. (see above)

The feature on Friday was the $75,000 Green Flash Handicap, a five-furlong sprint for horses 3 and up. It actually was a nice price for winner Stormy Liberal considering he won the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint last year.

He paid $5.60, $3.20 and $2.60, winning by a nose over Richard’s Boy. Touching Rainbows was third. Stormy Liberal is trained by Peter Miller and ridden by Drayden Van Dyke.

Del Mar preview

A really great — and long — card at Del Mar on Saturday with 11 races starting at the usual 2 p.m. There are four turf races and two of them are graded stakes. And, of course, the Pacific Classic, which is mentioned above.

The first is the Grade 2 $250,000 Del Mar Handicap for older horses going 1 3/8 miles on the turf. The two favorites are veteran campaigners, neither of whom seem to have a lot of luck winning at Del Mar. The favorite, at 7-2, is Itsinthepost for trainer Jeff Mullins and jockey Tyler Baze.

The 6-year-old gelding is 10 for 36 lifetime with seven seconds and six thirds. However, he is winless at Del Mar in 10 starts. His last race was a ninth-place finish in the Eddie Read at Del Mar.

The second favorite, at 9-2, is Kenjisstorm. The 6-year-old horse is five for 31 lifetime and one for 10 at Del Mar. He finished second in his last race, the Charlie Whittingham Stakes, giving up the lead in the stretch in a race that was an eighth of a mile shorter than the Del Mar Handicap. Phil D’Amato trains and Gary Stevens will ride.

Post time is around 4:40 p.m.

The second stakes is the Grade 1 $300,000 Del Mar Oaks for 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/8 miles on the turf. The favorite, at 7-2, is Colonia, a filly who ran her first five races in France. She won her last and only U.S. race, the Hatoof Stakes, by 1 ¾ lengths at Arlington Park. She moves to the Graham Motion barn and will be ridden by Joel Rosario, who is in to ride Accelerate for the injured Victor Espinoza.

Ollie’s Candy is at 9-2. She has three of four lifetimes races, but two of those were at Golden Gate. She finished second in the San Clemente Stakes coming with a drive in the stretch in the one-mile race. She is trained by William Morey and will be ridden by Tyler Baze.

Post time is around 5:40 p.m.

The field sizes for Saturday’s monster card are, in order: 7, 8, 12, 11, 10, 12, 8, 12, 10 (2 also eligible), 8, 12.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

1:40 Thistledown: $200,000 Lady Jacqueline Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Sneaky Betty (8-5)

2:02 Saratoga: Grade 2 $300,000 Lake Placid Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Rushing Fall (9-2)

2:09 Monmouth: Grade 3 $100,000 Monmouth Oaks, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Gio Game (5-2)

2:40 Saratoga: Grade 1 $600,000 Alabama Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 ¼ miles. Favorite: Midnight Bisou (7-5)

2:45 Woodbine: $400,000 Breeders’ Stakes, Ont-breds 3-years-old, 1 ½ miles on turf. Favorite: Aheadbyacentury (5-2)

4:40 Del Mar: Grade 2 $250,000 Del Mar Handicap, 3 and up, 1 3/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Itsinthepost (7-2)

5:40 Del Mar: Grade 1 $300,000 Del Mar Oaks, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Colonia (7-2)

6:43 Del Mar: Grade 1 $1 million Pacific Classic, 3 and up, 1 ¼ miles. Favorite: Accelerate (8-5)

Bob Ike’s DMR pick of the day

ELEVENTH RACE: No. 8 Ky. Colonel (5-1)

Sharp gelding from the Richard Mandella stable has won three of his last four (two straight) and moves up again into this allowance/optional claimer. He has enough tactical speed to fall into a good spot and is ridden back by Rafael Bejarano.

Friday’s result: Push Through was hammered at the window (3-5) and finished third, 1 ½ lengths behind the winner.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

SECOND RACE: No. 2 Shez A Glitter (2-1)

Her three 2018 Northern California races were dismal but I pay close attention to any first-out claim by high-percentage conditioner Jose Avalos, who employs leading rider Juan Sanchez for this mare’s local debut. She beats this field if she repeats any of her three runner-up tries last summer. She was solid second six outs ago vs. speedy Candy Pink, who won locally for $4,000 this year.

Final thought

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Any thoughts, you can reach me at johnacherwa@gmail.com. You can also feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

DON'T BLAME JUDY angled in and saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch, angled in some and rallied under urging to get up between foes late. SUTRO stalked the pace inside, came out into the stretch, split horses in midstretch, bid inside in deep stretch and continued willingly. DEARBORN close up stalking the pace off the rail, bid outside the pacesetter on the second turn to take the lead into the stretch, kicked clear just off the rail and held on well but was caught late. EVER SO TRUE settled inside, came out leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch and finished with interest. TEQUILA SUNRISE angled in and stalked outside a rival, came three deep into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. JOURNAL ENTRY stalked the pace three wide to the stretch and also lacked the necessary late kick. TIG TOG (IRE) bobbled at thee start, settled a bit off the rail then outside a rival, swung five wide into the stretch and improved position. STAR KISSED sped to the early lead and angled in, set the pace inside, fought back on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. SHE FOX chased between horses then off the rail into the stretch and did not rally. RESOLU settled outside a rival, went up three deep on the backstretch, fell back off the rail on the second turn and also lacked a rally. ROSE AGAIN chased between rivals on the first turn then along the inside on the backstretch and second turn and lacked a response in the stretch.

EL ASESINO angled in and dueled inside, kicked clear in the stretch and drew off under urging. FACE OF VICTORY had speed between horses then pressed the pace outside the winner to the stretch and held second. SON OF WAR stalked a bit off the rail on the backstretch and turn, swung out into the stretch and was edged for the place. BEAR DOWN CATS a step slow into stride, settled inside, came out into the stretch, angled back to the inside in the drive and lacked a rally. PSYCHEDELICAT prompted the pace three deep then stalked off the rail, came a bit wide into the stretch and weakened. DYNAMIC DUO lunged some at the start, saved ground chasing the pace, came out into the stretch then angled back in and had little left for the drive.

A WALK IN THE PARK three deep early, stalked outside a rival, bid outside the pacesetter to take the lead leaving the second turn, drifted out some in upper stretch and held sway under urging. X S GOLD chased three wide, came four wide into the stretch, angled in approaching midstretch and continued willingly to be second best. RAGAZZA DI VOLA saved ground stalking the pace, came out in the drive, split horses nearing midstretch and gained the show. LACEY'S RAINBOW settled outside a rival then chased three deep into and on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. MUSIC BABE chased a bit off the rail then outside a rival, went between foes into and on the second turn and three deep into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. LEMON CRUSH settled off the pace inside to the stretch, went around a rival past midstretch and was not a threat. ROLLING SHADOW chased between horses, came out three wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. FORTHENINETEEN had speed between horses then angled in and set the pace inside, stalked leaving the second turn and weakened in the drive. MOONSHINE ANNIE stalked a bit off the rail, dropped back between foes leaving the second turn and into the stretch and weakened. QUARTER MILE HAND TIMED.

SUPER SOL had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away under urging in the stretch and won clear. MONTMARTRE prompted the pace between horses then outside the winner on the turn and into the stretch and held second. CAMBY stalked between horses then outside a rival on the turn and into the stretch and edged that one for the show. HE'S STYLISH bumped with the winner at the break, pulled early then angled in and stalked inside, continued along the rail in the stretch and was edged for third. OUTLAW stalked four wide on the backstretch and most of the turn, angled in a bit into the stretch and weakened. GETALOADOFTHIS chased a bit off the rail, angled to the inside in the stretch and also weakened. FLEETWOOD pressed the pace three deep, stalked off the rail then dropped back on the turn, drifted out while being pulled up into the stretch and walked off.

JET SET RULER angled in early, steadied off heels into the first turn, saved ground stalking the pace, came out in midstretch, bid between foes under urging to gain the lead in deep stretch and proved best. COOL YOUR JETS angled in and chased inside, came out leaving the second turn and three deep into the stretch, bid between foes a sixteenth out and edged a rival for the place. PUSH THROUGH also angled in and stalked outside a rival, went up four wide on the second turn and five wide into the stretch, bid four wide past midstretch and was edged for second. NEVERMISSESABEAT stalked inside then bid along the rail to duel for the lead, inched away into the stretch, fought back along the fence in deep stretch and was edged for the show. CAPTAIN BUZZKILL angled in and saved ground chasing the pace to the stretch, came out in the drive and bested the others. RECKLESS GRAVITY pulled hard under a hold through the first turn, chased outside a rival, came out in the stretch and lacked a rally. ACHIEVED sped to the early lead a bit off the rail, dueled between horses on the backstretch and outside a foe leaving the second turn and weakened in the stretch. VALIANT hopped in a bit of a slow start, pulled his way along three deep to stalk the pace, continued off the rail leaving the backstretch, went up between foes on the second turn and also weakened in the drive. THE HUNTED pulled hard under a hold and stalked outside, bid three deep on the backstretch and into the second turn, was between horses leaving that turn and four wide into the stretch and also weakened. IRONIC RON angled in and settled outside a rival then a bit off the rail, found the fence on the second turn and did not rally. CALIFORNIASPECIAL settled inside then off the rail leaving the backstretch, came out in the stretch and was not a threat. MACHETE stalked three deep, dropped back into and on the second turn and gave way.

ROOMS squeezed at the start, chased outside a rival or just off the rail to the stretch, angled to the inside past midstretch and rallied under urging to get up in the final stride. SECRET SPICE angled in and dueled outside a rival, inched away into the stretch, kicked clear just off the rail and was caught on the line. CHICKATINI had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back on the second turn, weakened in the stretch but clearly held third. COPPER FEVER chased outside a rival then off the rail on the second turn, came three deep into the stretch and weakened. DEMIGODDESS saved ground stalking the pace to the stretch and also weakened. GONE TO TOWN chased outside a rival, dropped back off the rail on the second turn, came out into the stretch, gave way and was eased in the drive. TWIRLING APPLES stalked the pace inside then off the rail leaving the backstretch, also dropped back on the second turn, was pulled up in the stretch and walked off.

STORMY LIBERAL stalked the pace inside, split horses leaving the turn, came three deep into the stretch and rallied under steady handling to get up nearing the wire. RICHARD'S BOY close up stalking the pace a bit off the rail, bid outside the leader into the stretch to gain the advantage, fought back inside the winner in deep stretch and continued gamely to the end. TOUCHING RAINBOWS broke a bit slowly, saved ground chasing the pace, came out into the stretch and gained the show. PEE WEE REESE had speed three deep then dueled outside a rival, inched away on the turn, fought back along the rail in the stretch and weakened some late, then did not return to be unsaddled and was vanned off. RIGHT HAND MAN broke slightly in the air and a bit slowly, chased outside a rival, came out leaving the turn and four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. TRIBALIST stalked outside a rival, came out leaving the turn and four wide into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. THE RULE OF KING'S had speed between horses then dueled a bit off the rail then inside on the turn, stalked leaving the turn and weakened in the drive. HAND TIMED.

DESOLATION SOUND stalked four wide then bid four wide on the backstretch and into the second turn, battled three deep leaving that turn, took the lead into the stretch, drifted in some and drew clear under urging. JUMP THE TRACKS pulled between foes then stalked just off the rail or between horses, waited a bit off the fence leaving the second turn, came out three wide for room into the stretch and gained the place. VEGAS ITCH stalked inside then between foes, bid between rivals leaving the backstretch and on the second turn, put a head in front leaving that turn and bested the others. ACCLIMATE had good early speed and dueled outside a rival then inched away early on the backstretch, angled in and dueled inside leaving the backstretch and on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. GAME OF ROANS dueled inside then saved ground stalking the pace, dropped back on the second turn and also weakened. CHANNEL CROSSING four wide into the first turn, stalked three deep then between foes, fell back off the rail on the second turn, angled in some for the stretch and also weakened. MAGO BLANCO had speed three deep then stalked on the first turn, bid three deep between foes on the backstretch, also fell back on the second turn, came four wide into the stretch and weakened. CLEM DELA CLEM settled outside then off the rail, came three deep into the stretch and lacked a rally. UNUSUAL CHAMP angled in on the first turn and saved ground off the pace, came out into the stretch and was not a threat.