Racing! Update on Victor Espinoza

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we get a handicapping lesson from Rob Henie.

A lot of you have been asking for an update on Victor Espinoza and its mostly good news. His doctors have still not cleared him to return to racing, but he’s hopeful he can make it back by the start of the big Santa Anita meeting on Dec. 26.

I think we all are in favor of Victor, 46, taking as much time as he needs.

This is what he had to say.

“Both my neurosurgeon Dr. [Frank] Coufal and my neurologist Dr. [Mary] Kalafut are pleased with the course of my recovery from my spinal cord injury as well as the injury to the vertebral artery,” Espinoza said. “I want to come back to ride again and would love to be back by the time Santa Anita opens in late December. I’m still dealing with issues in my left arm and so my return to riding won’t happen until I’m 100% ready to go.”

If you didn’t read it, our columnist, Bill Plaschke, did a great story on Victor a couple of months ago when he was going through his rehab. You can read it here.

Victor fractured a vertebra in his neck when he was thrown from his mount Bobby Abu Dhabi when the horse suffered a catastrophic injury during a work. The horse broke his right front leg and hit the ground so hard that it also broke his back. He died almost immediately.

The response to Victor’s plight was swift. One of the first people to visit him in the hospital was Bob Baffert, who had Victor ride American Pharoah to the Triple Crown. Others visited Victor and, on the surface, you had to wonder why would he want to return to racing.

Well, the answer is that’s who he is.

The media, me included, really enjoy Victor’s candor.

I remember talking to him at the Kentucky Derby this year where he was to ride Bolt d’Oro. Even though trainer Mick Ruis was a few feet away at the barn, Victor was talking about how he didn’t understand why he wasn’t first call on Bolt after Ruis and Corey Nakatani had split. Victor got the once promising colt only after Javier Castellano elected to ride another horse.

Jockeys don’t often talk about trainers, especially when they are standing nearby.

The two biggest questions I’ve been asked this year were: “When will McKinzie return?” and “When will Victor return?”

McKinzie came back full throttle by winning the Pennsylvania Derby. And, we expect no less success when Victor returns.

“I want to say thank you to everyone that has sent cards and letters,” Espinoza said on Friday. “I very much appreciate all of the kind words.”

Victor’s agent Brian Beach has been great keeping everyone up on his jockey’s progress. As usual, when we know, you’ll know.

Weekly handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Today’s lesson is from the seventh race at Santa Anita. All yours, Rob.

“This is a maiden special weight at six furlongs. Our reports over the years have become known for a few things, one of which is our winning first timers. Let’s first set the stage with regard to maiden races in general. We’re usually looking for either one of two things — first timers who are displaying a work pattern which is either different in a good way, different than we typically see from the trainer in question. Or a pattern which has resulted in past first-time winners for the same trainer, all the while coinciding with a group of mediocre to poor types of opponents. If a first timer doesn’t jump off the page for us, we’re now looking for the ‘veterans’ who’ve already run, those offering the most room to move forward. This is precisely why we’ve soured over the months with regard to 5-2 COCOA KISSES, who we believe has lost the room to move forward. In her debut, she was actually our top pick when second at 36-1, working well at the time and facing nothing. Ever since that first try, though, she’s offered the same mediocre effort, always looking the winner turning for home, but rarely finishing. Those close calls also leave her short on the tote board when running next time out. What’s the definition of insanity? It’s doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. That’s our mindset with this Jeff Bonde filly, same state-bred level, same running style, still sprinting, same efforts over and over, thus, we’ll again look elsewhere. There is room for improvement today though with SMOOVIE (#8). Her second career start actually came in the debut of ‘KISSES, a decent third, and just when the connections were seemingly fond of her, entering her in an open company race, things went south and she went to the sidelines. Off the seven-month layoff here today, she’s returned with a really strong worktab down at San Luis Rey, even adding blinkers, usually a very strong sign off the time away. It means they’ll be asking for everything in her return, with the blinkers on and the usual Doug O’Neill nasal strip in place (all his runners where ‘em, take a look on the track). ABSOLUTELY PERFECT (#7) is a first timer worthy of looking at here. Dan Blacker works his runners slow, thus, when a hint of speed is present, it’s a good thing, made even better when he asks a gate type of rider such as Tyler Baze, to hop aboard. Viable at first asking for Dan.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“WCHR Maiden Power Rating: - 2.00 (less than average for the class)

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 8-7-4

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 1,2

“Positive Notes:

“4 Paprika - Her best tries coming down the hill on the turf following a prep on the main track. Are they using a similar pattern for this one? Or, are they expecting a top effort? We would side with the latter, even adding blinkers with Flavien Prat taking the call.

“Negative Notes:

“1 Into Rissa - Eleven tries to date, already trying this dirt sprint, most recently a turf route, now back on the main track, seemingly not a clue with where or how to place her?

“First Timers:

“2 Encountress - Will need the debut for Ian Kruljac.

“6 Tribal Ann - Not opposed to backing a Lloyd Wicker first timer, but not this one, looking to beat.

“TOP PICK: SMOOVIE (#8 6-1 Gutierrez) $ Win Wager

“SECOND CHOICE: ABSOLUTELY PERFECT (#7 4-1 Baze) $ Win Wager”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

The card wasn’t that strong on Friday but the performance by Amuse was very strong. The once-raced filly settled in to fourth or fifth for the first half of the six-furlong maiden special weight and around the turn made her move and by the top of the stretch it was clear she was much the best. She won by 5 ¼ lengths under jockey Mike Smith.

“She had trained OK going into her first race (1 1/16 miles on the turf), but coming out of that race, she really trained like a serious horse,” trainer Richard Mandella told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “The way she trained before she ran, we thought she’d probably want grass, but once she ran, she really turned it around.”

Amuse paid $5.20, $3.40 and $2.40. Creative Contessa was second and Tivat was third.

Santa Anita preview

There are big fields in almost all 10 races on Santa Anita’s Saturday card. The featured stakes in not the best, but it’s got an 11-horse field, unlike the five and six-horse fields that have populated some of the graded stakes of late. Half of the races are on the turf.

The feature is the $100,000 California Distaff Handicap for, you guessed it, Cal-bred fillies and mares, going five furlongs on the turf. It’s a test of promise vs. class. S Y Sky has won three of her four races including the last two. She has been the favorite in her last three races for trainer Phil D’Amato and jockey Joe Talamo. She’s at 5-2.

The second favorite at 4-1 is well traveled. How About Zero is three for 15 lifetime but has been running on the lower stakes schedule of late. She runs for Doug O’Neill and Mario Gutierrez.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 8, 7, 9, 7, 9, 10, 8, 11, 12 (1 also eligible), 12 (2).

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

11:14 Woodbine (3): Grade 3 $125,000 Ontario Derby, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Mr Ritz (7-5)

12:40 Thistledown (5): $150,000 Best of Ohio Sprint Stakes, Ohio-breds 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Altissimo (2-1)

1:10 Thistledown (6): $150,000 John W. Galbreath Stakes, Ohio-bred fillies 2-years-old, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Baby Nina (4-1)

1:30 Woodbine (7): Grade 2 $250,000 Nearctic Stakes, 3 and up, 6 furlongs on turf. Favorite: Yorkton (5-2)

1:40 Thistledown (7): $150,000 Juvenile Stakes, Ohio-bred 2-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Magic Tale (4-1)

1:43 Belmont (8): $100,000 Floral Park Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 furlongs on turf. Favorite: Lady Alexandra (5-2)

2:10 Thistledown (8): $150,000 Best of Ohio Endurance Stakes, Ohio-breds 3 and up, 1 ¼ miles. Favorite: Mo Don’t know (3-1)

2:18 Belmont (9): $200,000 Pebble Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Got Stormy (3-1)

2:30 Keeneland (9): Grade 1 $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Rushing Fall (7-5)

2:40 Thistledown (9): $150,000 Best of Ohio Distaff Stakes, Ohio-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Heavenhasmynikki (7-2)

2:41 Woodbine (9): Grade 1 $800,000 Pattison Canadian International, 3 and up, 1 ½ miles on turf. Favorite: Thundering Blue (2-1)

3:18 Woodbine (10): Grade 1 $500,000 E.P. Taylor Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 ¼ miles on turf. Favorite: Santa Monica (5-2)

4:18 Santa Anita (8): $100,000 California Distaff Handicap, Cal-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 5 furlongs on turf. Favorite: S Y Sky (5-2)

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

FIFTH RACE: No. 1 Tapitha Bonita (6-1)

Sophomore filly was claimed by Bill Spawr for $25,000 at Del Mar and is promptly protected in this Cal-bred allowance/optional claimer. The barn is strong with this move, and 'Bonita is fresh and training well, so expect a good effort in this spot.

Friday’s result: Cool Green (5-1) was jostled at the start of race five but never put in a run at any point in a very disappointing effort.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

THIRD RACE: No. 2 Part Of My Heart (3-1)

She is only making her third start for high-percentage trainer Justin Clark and has upside while making just third start since January. She faced tougher when fifth over the daytime one-mile oval in last out one month ago and was fourth at shorter route two races back. Avail, the 8-5 morning-line favorite who lacks early speed, seems vulnerable from the rail post where she could get shuffled back.

Final thought

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And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

ALL TEA ALL SHADE chased off the rail, went outside a rival leaving the turn and three deep into the stretch, came out in midstretch and rallied under urging to get up on the wire. SHE'S A DIME stalked outside then three deep, came five wide into the stretch, bid three wide in midstretch to gain the lead, inched away and was caught in the final stride. SASSY KITTY had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back in the stretch and held third. SUPERHOTAMOLLY dueled four wide, put a head in front between rivals in midstretch and weakened late. ATHLEISURE prompted the pace between horses then three deep between foes to the stretch, drifted in some in the drive and weakened in the final furlong. BOOLICIOUS hesitated to be away well behind the field, drifted out when green early, angled in, came out into the stretch, drifted to the inside in upper stretch then came out again just past midstretch and finished with some interest. ROLINGA stalked early then bid between horses to duel for the lead, drifted inward in the stretch and weakened. DEPENDE DE TI angled in off the rail then split rivals approaching the turn, continued just off the rail on the turn and lacked a rally. ALYSTAR broke a bit slowly, saved ground chasing the pace, came off the rail some in deep stretch and was lacked a further response. TIZ YOUR WAY angled in and settled inside, dropped back on the turn and had little left for the stretch.

GIVE ME A HINT stalked the pace off the rail, bid outside a rival leaving the turn, took the lead into the stretch and drew off under a moderate hand ride. IRISH TERRIER close up stalking the pace between horses to the stretch, split rivals in deep stretch and edged a foe for the place. BEA'S BOY was well placed tracking the leader three deep to the stretch, continued outside a rival and was edged by that one for second. THREE AY EM had speed between rivals then angled in and set the pace inside, dueled leaving the turn and weakened in the stretch. THE CREEP saved ground stalking the pace, came off the rail in upper stretch and had little left for the drive.

KRIS' WILD KAT angled in and dueled outside a rival, was fanned wide on the dirt crossing, took the lead in upper stretch, inched clear and held under some urging. RUMPUS CAT stalked a bit off the rail then inside, bid along the fence in the stretch and went willingly to the end. BAHAMIAN close up stalking the pace between horses or a bit off the rail, swung five wide into the stretch and just got the show. ATONARUN saved ground chasing the pace, continued inside in the stretch and was edged for third. DATA CENTRAL saved ground chasing the pace, came out past midstretch and split rivals with a late bid at a minor award. SILVER FURY stalked four wide then three deep leaving the hill and into the stretch and was outfinished for a minor share. ALL I CAN SAY chased between horses, came three wide into the stretch and also was outfinished between foes late. SEAHAWK WAVE had good early speed and angled in, dueled inside, drifted out on the dirt crossing, continued just off the rail and weakened between foes late. CAPALL chased three deep, came four wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. RAK CITY settled between horses chasing the pace, continued a bit off the rail leaving the hill and into the stretch and did not rally. Rail on hill at 14 feet.

AMUSE stalked outside or off the rail, advanced three deep on the turn, bid outside the runner-up leaving the turn to gain the advantage nearing the stretch and drew clear under a brisk hand ride. CREATIVE CONTESSA broke out a bit, had speed between horses then angled in and dueled inside, inched clear on the turn, fought back inside the winner leaving the turn, was not a match in the stretch but clearly second best. TIVAT saved ground stalking the pace, came a bit off the rail leaving the turn and into the stretch and bested the others. GIVEHERDALUTE stalked off the rail or outside a rival, fell back just off the inside on the turn, drifted inward in the stretch and weakened. SANDONA GIRL broke in a bit, settled off the rail, came a bit wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. GLITZNGLAMOUR saved ground chasing the pace, continued inside on the turn and into the stretch and did not rally. DANCING BELLE broke a bit slowly then steadied when squeezed back, settled off the rail, came three wide into the stretch and was not a threat,. SEE THAT KAT had good early speed and dueled outside the runner-up, stalked between foes then off the rail on the turn and weakened.

OSCAR DOMINGUEZ (IRE) chased three deep, came four wide into the stretch, bid three wide under urging in midstretch, gained the advantage in deep stretch and gamely prevailed. UNAPOLOGETIC stalked a bit off the rail then outside a rival, angled in leaving the second turn, came out in upper stretch, bid between foes in midstretch, fought back inside the winner in deep stretch and went gamely to the end. CONQUEST TYPHOON broke out and bumped a rival, had speed between horses then angled in, inched away briefly on the backstretch, fought back inside into and on the second turn and in midstretch, came off the rail in the drive and held third between foes. TERRYS TOM CAT stalked inside then off the rail, bid three deep leaving the backstretch and on the second turn and into the stretch and was edged for the show. SALTINI saved ground chasing the pace, continued inside in the stretch and was outfinished for a minor award. HARD FOUGHT three deep early, pressed the pace outside a rival then stalked off the rail, re-bid between foes into and on the second turn and weakened some in the final furlong. TWENTYTWENTYVISION a bit slow to begin, chased between horses then outside a rival on the second turn, came out into the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. ACKER pulled along the inside then saved ground chasing the pace, cut the corner into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. COOL GREEN bumped at the start, chased outside a rival then between foes into and on the second turn, came out some in the stretch and lacked a rally.

TENTHOUSANDREASONS saved ground stalking the pace, bid inside a half mile out, inched away on the second turn and drew off in the stretch under a moderate hand ride and a long hold late. LEA'S REWARD four wide into the first turn, stalked off the rail then bid four wide a half mile out, tracked the winner and angled in some leaving the second turn and bested the others. PRINCESS LEIA dueled outside a rival then three deep between foes leaving the backstretch, angled in some and stalked on the second turn and just held third. REVENUE VIRGINIUS dueled a bit off the rail then between foes leaving the backstretch, angled in and stalked leaving the second turn and was edged for the show. MOSCATO GIRL chased off the rail then a bit off the fence leaving the second turn and into the stretch and lacked a rally. IPRAY settled outside a rival chasing the pace, came out into the stretch and did not rally. HONOR MAKER angled in and pulled along the inside and steadied into the first turn, saved ground chasing the pace, had the rider lose the whip midway on the second turn, swung out into the stretch and lacked a rally. ONLINE REQUEST four wide into the first turn, chased off the rail then outside a rival, came four wide into the stretch and weakened.

MIDNIGHT MIRACLE stalked outside then four wide leaving the backstretch and on the turn and into the stretch, bid three deep to gain the lead in midstretch and held on gamely under some urging. BE LIFTED UP a bit slow to begin, chased just off the rail then inside, came out in midstretch and finished well between foes late. TIME FOR SUZZIE had good early speed and dueled between horses, fought back between foes in the stretch and was edged for the place. SIX PACK GAL went up inside to duel for the lead, battled along the rail on the turn, also fought back inside in the stretch and was outfinished. CHITTER CHATTER stalked off the rail then three deep between foes, angled in outside a rival nearing the stretch and lacked a rally. SECRET MANEUVER settled off the rail then a bit off the fence on the turn, came out in the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. ZIP'S SECRET dueled three deep on the backstretch and turn and weakened in the drive. PRETTY HUSSAR had speed between horses then stalked a bit off the rail, swung out four wide into the stretch and gave way.

SUPER PATRIOT chased inside then outside a rival on the second turn, swung four wide into the stretch, drifted in and took the lead nearing midstretch and won clear under urging. TRUST FUND KITTY chased between horses then outside a rival or a bit off the rail, came out on the second turn and six wide into the stretch and gained the place. SUNDAY PROPHET stalked inside, came off the rail on the second turn, split horses five wide into the stretch and finished with interest. FOXTAIL had speed inside to duel for the lead, fought back leaving the second turn, came a bit off the rail into the stretch, could not match the winner in the final furlong and weakened late. TAKE CHARGE GAL chased three deep then outside a rival, went three wide again into the second turn, fell back some on that turn, angled out into the stretch and bested the others. LIL BIT DANGEROUS stalked outside a rival then bid three deep leaving the second turn, took a short lead into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. CONFORMATION angled in on the first turn and stalked inside, came out on the second turn and three wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. MONGOLIAN HUMOR between horses early, angled in and stalked inside, cut the corner into the stretch and weakened. EZPZYLEMONSQUEEZY angled in and settled a bit off the rail then inside, came out into the stretch and lacked a rally. DON'TEATMYCOOKIES pulled three deep early then dueled outside a rival, battled between foes leaving the second turn, fell back into the stretch and had little left for the drive.