Racing! Who goofed, I’ve got to know? (Hint: It’s three letters)

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we have another handicapping lesson from Rob Henie.

It may come as a surprise to you, but I don’t sit home every afternoon watching horse racing. I do record the races every day and watch every Santa Anita race (or Del Mar or Los Alamitos). So, knowing I couldn’t get away with watching horses all day and Dodgers all night, my wife and I went to see “A Star Is Born”. Phenomenal acting (especially Lady Gaga) but a terrible movie. Just too dated with lots of plot holes.

So, I get out of the movie and get a message from a rightfully upset reader, Andy Mosley, who said TVG showed horses loading at Keeneland instead of a live race from Santa Anita. I’m thinking, well, the races probably conflicted with each other.

I start the replays and when I get to the fourth, I see us get the audio of the last 1/16 of a mile and I’m thinking, not good, but, hey, things happen. Little did I know that was not the race Andy was talking about.

The next race, the $100,000 California Flag race at Santa Anita, is getting ready to go but instead we get split screen with the audio on the horses at Keeneland walking to the gate and loading and we miss the entire call of the Santa Anita stakes. Let me repeat, the entire race was run at Santa Anita before the Keeneland race even started.

Unacceptable.

Then, adding salt into the wound, Mr. Annoying says on TVG: “Got to multitask on a day like today and nobody does it better than America’s horse racing network.”

Hey, MA, that’s a flat-out lie. You guys blew it. Probably not you, but whoever has the switches back in L.A. But then you feed into a bad decision. (Picture me shaking my head.)

Sure, you can talk about contracts but we got to see horses walk to the gate and load instead of real, honest-to-goodness live racing at Santa Anita.

Am I done? No.

TVG did the exact same thing to the sixth race at Santa Anita. We got to watch Keeneland horses walk and start to load with audio while the race at Santa Anita becomes a silent movie with no subtitles.

Credit Scott Hazelton for doing a subtle apology by claiming “a lot going on.” At least he didn’t lie. Now, I do fast-forward through most out-of-market races, so there might have been a full-blown apology and if so, I will mention it next newsletter.

Sorry to be so worked up, but I try and look out for our local tracks and criticize when warranted. But this was just bad decision making.

OK, I’m done.

Weekly handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper. One of Rob’s many specialties is first timers, where the WCHR has had the last 16 of them.

Today’s lesson is from the eighth race at Santa Anita. Take it away, Rob.

“This is a weak $12,500 claimer at 1 1/16 miles. Races run between October and December, are typically filled with regressing runners, tired from a long campaign or maybe a tough summer. At the bottom levels, the bad form is magnified even further, thus, we’re looking for lighter raced runners, or, changes to bring out something new. Top selection is INLAND EMPIRE (#6). Rafael Becerra actually claimed last time out, pretty encouraging at this time of the year, also considering the class drops in recent weeks. But, the reality likely set in that she was never a higher classed filly, thus, has simply been allowed to find some confidence, and now, the claim, back right on schedule, even adding blinkers. Plenty of room here in late October, to find continued confidence, becoming a consistent lower claiming sort. GIRL DRAMA (#4) also has plenty of room to move forward. She’s been claimed in two of her three starts, last time out for $16,000, with this drop today just fine, as a win check and a claim check would still produce a profit, always a wise gauge for determining healthy or poor drops off the claim. It’s when a drop in class, culminating with a win and a claim check, doesn’t recoup the original investment, when the drop becomes worrisome. As for this outing today, expecting an up close trip throughout, offering a final ¼ in the :25.1 range, which should give her a legitimate look late.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 6-4-9

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 1,2,3,5

“Positive Notes:

“9 Pray for Corday - Came home in :24.4 last time out, that would translate well against these.

“TOP PICK: INLAND EMPIRE (#6 4-1 Delgadillo)

“SECOND CHOICE: GIRL DRAMA (#4 7-2 Fuentes)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Told you it was good

On Saturday, I mentioned the new L.A. Times podcast called “Arrive Early, Leave Late,” a twist on the rap given L.A. sports fans. It’s hosted by Beto Duran and the first one even had LeBron James on it talking to our terrific Lakers writer Tania Ganguli. But rather than me talking about the podcast, let me pass on this note from newsletter reader Chip Ossman: “The first podcast worked for me – didn’t have that typical garbage, self-aggrandizing, banter between hosts, and other noxious fillers.” OK, so don’t listen because I told you to, but do it because Chip told you to. Just click here.

Santa Anita review

For those of watching the $100,000 California Flag Stakes on TVG, this is your chance to learn what went on. Brandothebertender rallied from far back to win the five-furlong turf race for Cal-breds. It was a short field of only five after Tribalist scratched.

He set a track record of 55.11 seconds but that’s most likely because this distance on the turf was just added this meeting. Brandothebartender paid $16.40, $3.20 and $2.10. Heavy favorite Richard’s Boy finished second and Eddie Haskell was third. Obviously, Santa Anita elected to have show wagering despite having only five horses.

“We had a sneaky feeling he was going to run well today,” winning trainer Craig Dollase said. “It was a quick turnaround but he has trained really well in between [Saturday] and into last week. [Jockey] Joe [Talamo] rode him really well and the pace scenario really helped us. This horse tries and he’s very consistent. We got the job done.”

Santa Anita preview

There are some alarming field sizes in Sunday’s nine-race card, starting at 12:30 p.m. There are three races with only five horses and one, the feature, with six. There are four turf races.

The feature is a minor stakes, the $70,000 Sunny Slope Stakes for 2-year-olds going 6 ½ furlongs. The favorite is Seven Scents, at 8-5, for trainer Craig Lewis and jockey Geovanni Franco. He has won only one of four starts but does have two second-place finishes. He was second last out in the Barrett’s Juvenile at Los Alamitos.

The second favorite at 2-1 is Sparks Ville, who has a win, place and show in four starts. He’s been running tougher company finishing sixth last out in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity and also a second in the Grade 2 Best Pal. Jeff Bonde is the trainer and Gary Stevens will ride.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 5, 7, 5, 10, 5, 11, 6, 10, 10.

Big Races review

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday.

Belmont (2): $150,000 Iroquois Stakes, NY-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 ½ furlongs. Winner: Highway Star ($6.80)

Laurel (3): $100,000 Maryland Million Distaff, Md-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Winner: Crabcakes ($2.80)

Belmont (3): $200,000 Mohawk Stakes, NY-breds 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Winner: Offering Plan ($4.70)

Laurel (4): $125,000 Maryland Million Ladies, Md-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Winner: My Sistersledge ($3.20)

Belmont (4): $150,000 Hudson Handicap, NY-breds 3 and up, 6 ½ furlongs. Winner: Runaway Lute ($13.40)

Laurel (5): $100,000 Maryland Million Sprint, Md-breds 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Winner: Lewisfield ($2.40)

Belmont (5): $200,000 Ticonderoga Stakes, NY-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Winner: Fifty Five ($3.60)

Laurel (6): $100,000 Maryland Million Nursery, Md-bred 2-year-olds, 6 furlongs. Winner: Follow the Dog ($9.60)

Far Hills (4): $125,000 Foxbrook Champion Hurdle Stakes (First division), 4 and up, 2 ½ miles on turf. Winner: Belisarius ($27.40)

Far Hills (5): $125,000 Foxbrook Champion Hurdle Stakes (Second division), 4 and up, 2 ½ miles on turf. Winner: Detroit Blues ($12.60)

Belmont (7): $250,000 Maid of the Mist Stakes, NY-bred fillies 2-years-old, 1 mile. Winner: Surge of Pride ($33.20)

Belmont (8): $250,000 Sleepy Hollow Stakes, NY-bred 2-year-olds, 1 mile. Winner: Bankit ($12.40)

Far Hills (6): Grade 1 $450,000 Grand National Hurdle Stakes, 4 and up, 2 5/8 miles on turf. Winner: Jury Duty ($4.60)

Belmont (9): $250,000 Empire Distaff Handicap, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: Bonita Bianca ($7.50)

Laurel (9): $100,000 Maryland Million Lassie, Md-bred fillies 2-years-old, 6 furlongs. Winner: My Star Potential ($6.60)

Belmont (10): $300,000 Empire Classic Stakes, NY-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: Pat On the Back ($6.50)

Laurel (10): $125,000 Maryland Million Turf, Md-breds 3 and up, 1 mile on turf. Winner: Talk Show Man ($8.00)

Woodbine (9): $125,000 Carotene Stakes, Ont-bred fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Winner: Dixie Moon ($7.50)

Keeneland (9): Grade 2 $250,000 Lexus Raven Run Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 7 furlongs. Winner: Shamrock Rose ($39.40)

Santa Anita (5): $100,000 California Flag Handicap, Cal-breds 3 and up, 5 furlongs on turf. Winner: Brandothebartender ($16.40)

Laurel (11): $150,000 Maryland Million Classic, Md-breds 3 and up, 1 1/18 miles. Winner: Saratoga Bob ($9.00)

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Sunday. All times PDT:

1:36 Woodbine (8): Grade 3 $125,000 Grey Stakes, 2-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Nashtrick (8-5)

1:57 Keeneland (8): Grade 3 $125,000 Rood & Riddle Dowager Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 ½ miles on turf. Favorite: Daring Duchess (5-2)

2:18 Belmont (8): Grade 3 $200,000 Athenia Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: New Money Honey (3-1)

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

SIXTH RACE: No. 9 Spa Shackalacka (5-1)

Sophomore from the Phil D'Amato stable faded after dueling from the inside when sent long at Del Mar last time out but cuts back to a sprint, has been gelded since his last and is drawn favorably outside with good tactical speed. Look for a top try in this spot.

Saturday’s result: Fire to the Wire raced in second flight early but lacked punch in the stretch and finished fourth in the eighth race.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart LA play of the day

THIRD RACE: No. 3 Especially Tres Pyc (2-1)

This gelding improved with each of his three Ruidoso Downs starts and is plenty fit for this 400-yard trial after last 1 ¼-length All-American trial victory at 440 yards two months ago. In his last win from the eighth trial, he was compromised by weather variables that cost any horse after the fifth trial from qualifying for the All American. He since looked terrific in a local 12.0 gate drill when displaying huge strides midway while proving 3 ½ lengths best over a workmate.

Final thoughts

Always looking to add more subscribers to this newsletter. Can’t beat the price. If you like it, tell someone. If you don’t like it, then you’re probably not reading this. Either way, send to a friend and just have them click here and sign up. Remember, it’s free, and all we need is your email, nothing more.

Any thoughts, you can reach me at johnacherwa@gmail.com. You can also feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Saturday’s results and Sunday’s entries.

ABOVE BOARD had speed three deep then kicked clear and angled in, set the pace inside, drifted out then in from the whip in the stretch but held sway. KONA DREAMS a bit washy at the gate, stalked outside a rival then just off the rail to the stretch and held second. FREDDIES DREAM settled a bit off the inside, went outside a rival into the second turn, swung four wide into the stretch and picked up the show. SOUTH AMERICAIN chased a bit off the rail then inside on the second turn, came out some into the stretch and did not rally. I'M READY TO ROLL three deep early, chased outside a rival then off the rail, continued alongside a foe on the second turn, came out into the stretch, drifted in late and weakened. AIR POCKET saved ground chasing the pace, dropped back on the second turn, came out in the stretch and gave way.

SAVE GROUND had speed outside then crossed to the inside, set a pressured pace along the rail, fought back in the stretch, drifted out a bit from the whip and bumped with the runner-up nearing the wire and held on gamely. THE STREET FIGHTER between foes and was in tight off heels early, pressed the pace between horses then outside the winner through the final furlong, drifted in a bit and bumped with that one late and continued willingly to the end. NEW KARMA pulled between horses and steadied into the first turn, stalked outside a rival, split foes leaving the second turn, came out into the stretch and finished well. JET SET RULER also pulled and was in tight off heels early, saved ground stalking the pace, came out a bit into the stretch then angled back in and lacked the needed late kick. SIX POINT RACK four wide into the first turn, pressed the pace three deep to the stretch and weakened some in the final furlong. HIGHLIGHT SHOW pulled between foes and steadied early, angled in and chased a bit off the rail, came out three deep leaving the second turn and four wide into stretch and could not quite summon the needed late response. Claims of foul by the rider of the runner-up against the winner for alleged interference in the early running and nearing the wire were not allowed by the stewards, who ruled the former claim did not alter the original placings and that in the latter incident both runners contributed to the slight contact between them.

KERSHAW was sent to the early lead, set the pace inside, inched away again on the second turn and drew off under a crack of the whip and steady handling. IT'S TIZ TIME five wide into the first turn, angled in and chased a bit off the rail, went outside a rival on the second turn then angled in again nearing the stretch, found the fence in the lane and gained the place. POCKET PERSONALITY four wide into the first turn, bid four wide on the backstretch, stalked outside a rival on the second turn and three deep into the stretch and held third. RINSE AND REPEAT stalked between horses then bid three deep between foes on the backstretch, tracked between horses then a bit off the rail on the second turn, continued under urging in the stretch then had the rider lose the whip between foes a sixteenth out and was edged for the show. JUNE TWO FOUR stalked a bit off the rail then bid between horses on the backstretch, fell back a bit off the fence on the second turn and weakened.

WILD VERSE had speed outside then inched away on the backstretch, set the pace just off the rail, kicked clear on the turn and proved best under urging then steady handling late. DERBY FACTOR unhurried off the rail early, angled in some on the backstretch, found the rail on the turn, cut the corner into the stretch, came out some in the drive and split rivals in deep stretch to gain the place. FRIENDLY STEVE stalked between horses then a bit off the rail on the backstretch and turn and into the stretch and just held third. SERVE ME A DOUBLE chased outside a rival then three deep to the stretch and was edged for the show. GRAND MINISTER saved ground stalking the winner, continued inside in the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. THE CHADINATOR chased inside, came out into the stretch and weakened. JUNE SIXTH broke a bit slowly, settled just off the rail, split horses leaving the backstretch, continued outside a rival on the turn then three deep into the stretch and lacked a further response. LUCKY WALLY close up stalking the pace outside then three deep, dropped back on the turn, gave way in the stretch and was eased late. SHADOW OF WAR had speed a bit off the rail to stalk the pace, dropped back between horses on the turn, also gave way and was eased in the drive.

BRANDOTHEBARTENDER angled in and chased a bit off the rail, came out leaving the turn and into the stretch and rallied under left handed urging to gain the lead in deep stretch and proved best. RICHARD'S BOY had good early speed and dueled between horses then inside on the turn, inched away in midstretch but could not hold off the winner late. EDDIE HASKELL dueled three deep then outside the runner-up on the turn, fought back into the stretch and went on willingly late. MASON B went up inside to press the pace, fell back some into the turn, had the rider lose the whip midway on the turn, came out into the stretch then angled back to the inside and weakened. P CLUB broke a bit slowly, settled a bit off the rail to the stretch and was not a threat.

BABY ICE had speed off the rail then dueled outside a rival, took a short lead on the turn, inched away leaving the turn and drew off under a couple taps of the whip and steady handling. SWALLOWS INN GAL chased off the rail then outside a rival on the turn, came out into the stretch, split horses in midstretch and gained the place. DRESSED IN PRADA saved ground chasing the pace, came out a bit into the stretch then angled in and edged a rival for the show. FELLINA unhurried just off the rail then inside on the turn and into the stretch, came out some in the drive, was in a bit tight late and was edged for third. SHARONA SUNSET stalked outside a rival then a bit off the rail on the turn, came out in the stretch and weakened, then was unsaddled at the end of the stretch and was vanned off. AS A RULE went up inside to duel for the lead, battled along the rail on the turn, came off the fence in the stretch, was between foes in deep stretch and weakened.

POSH HOLLY (IRE) angled in and chased outside a rival or a bit off the rail, came three deep into the stretch, rallied under some urging to the front in deep stretch and proved best. ASK THE CUSTOMER angled in and was reserved off the pace outside a rival then a bit off the rail, continued alongside a foe on the second turn, also came three wide into the stretch and finished well. FLYING BLUE saved ground stalking the pace, came out for room in midstretch, split horses in deep stretch and held third. MERCY MERCY hopped at the start, angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, came out into the stretch, was blocked from upper stretch to midstretch, came out for room and finished with interest between horses. FAIRY TALE BLISS had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away in the stretch but weakened late. SHES ALL WOMAN had speed three deep then dueled outside a rival, battled between foes on the backstretch and second turn and into the stretch and weakened some in the final furlong. HURLEY had speed between horses early, stalked outside a rival then bid again three deep on the backstretch and second turn and into the stretch and also weakened some in the final furlong. UNBRIDLED HUNTRESS unhurried along the inside early, saved ground off the pace, came out into the stretch and did not rally.

TOUGH BUT NICE sped to the early lead, angled in and set the pace off the rail, opened up under urging in the stretch and held on gamely. NINETY NINE PROOF saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch and continued willingly to close the gap to the winner. MINOSO broke a bit slowly, chased off the rail then outside a rival, continued outside on the turn and four wide into the stretch and edged a foe for third. FIRE TO THE WIRE stalked three deep between foes then between horses leaving the turn, came three wide into the stretch, drifted in some and was edged for the show. TANNERS PRIDE close up stalking the pace between rivals, fell back some just off the fence on the turn, drifted inward in midstretch, found the rail past midstretch and weakened. HOT PERFECTION chased along the inside, inched forward along the rail in the stretch then steadied when crowded in midstretch, came out and split foes late. KING ABNER stalked four wide then three deep leaving the turn, came four wide into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong.

VANTASTIC had good early speed and dueled a bit off the rail then inched away leaving the hill and held on gamely under urging. BOB AND JACKIE dueled three deep then stalked three wide, angled in between horses leaving the hill, continued between foes in the stretch and held second. VOLUBILE a bit slow to begin, chased outside a rival then moved up four wide leaving the hill, came three deep into the stretch, continue three wide in the drive and was edged for the place. STORMS RIVER saved ground stalking the pace throughout and was edged for third. TEMPLE SECRET stalked a bit off the rail then inside, came out and was in a bit tight off heels nearing the dirt crossing, angled in again, came out in upper stretch and was outfinished for a minor award. INDY JONES settled off the rail then angled in midway on the hill, cut the corner into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. AFLEETING LIFE broke a bit slowly, chased just off the rail then inside, came out into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. PLATINUM NIGHTS stalked outside a rival then between horses, was in a bit tight past midway on the hill, came out four wide into the stretch and did not rally. BOLD ENDEAVOR dueled between horses then stalked three deep, angled in between horses leaving the hill, came out into the stretch and weakened. Rail on hill at 7 feet.