Racing! Rob Henie is back with a handicapping lesson

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we talk about Santa Anita, McKinzie and Joe Harper.

Before we get to Rob Henie, let’s get to some odds and ends.

--Best way to bring out the complainers is to say things went pretty well at Santa Anita. But, luckily for the track, there were only a few. There was a complaint about valet parking selling out, which can be difficult if you have someone who needs a little extra time to get where they are going. And, a couple of folks complained that the musical performers hired to entertain drowned out the track commentary that, well, race goers wanted to hear. Plus, the usual complaints about the public-address system, which can have more inaudible spots than a bad cellphone.

People need to understand that Santa Anita is no longer set up to handle 40,000 a day. I believe they would be pretty happy if they could average 8,000-10,000 a day on a weekday. So, there are going to be glitches when they have a huge crowd. But, given what a disaster last year was, I would say the improvement was significant.

Or as one of our newsletter readers put in an email (their identify is protected by my choice): “Do your annoyed readers not get it? Did they happen to go present shopping or grocery shopping in the last 10 days or so? We live in an insanely populated area and when there are crowds, there are lines. Stop your whining folks and be ecstatic that there were big crowds at the track!”

--McKinzie may be headed to the Pegasus or Dubai after his devastating performance in the Mailbu Stakes. Trainer Bob Baffert relayed that information to Steve Andersen of the Daily Racing Form. (You can read it here.) Andersen asked Baffert about the Pegasus and/or Dubai World Cup. “Definitely, those races are in the conversation. … He’s starting to grow into that big frame of his. We’re pretty excited about him.”

It would certainly give him a chance to avenge his poor performance in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, a race won by Accelerate, who will be in the Pegasus. Now, I’ve said it before, but the draw on the Pegasus is so vital because it’s such a short run to the first turn in 1 1/8-mile races. To be a fair matchup, they would both have to be on the inside or middle. Really tough to win from the far outside at that distance. So, why don’t they change the distance?

--The personable Joe Harper of Del Mar is being honored with a special Eclipse Award of Merit at the awards banquet on Jan. 24 at Gulfstream. I don’t usually link to press releases but this one from the National Thoroughbred Racing Assn., is as long as some of our newsletters. I can’t compete with that. (Just click here, courtesy of the Paulick Report.)

As someone whose job it is to chase down elusive track officials, I know that I can almost always find Joe down in the paddock before the first race and every race of some prominence at Del Mar. He’s not holding court, in fact, he’s usually just talking to workers and fans. He is one of the most approachable execs around and doesn’t dance around a question.

Even though The Times (that’s me) drew the ire of the Breeders’ Cup folks for breaking the story of the event coming to Santa Anita, Keeneland and Del Mar the next three years, it was Joe who really broke the story when he told Tod Leonard of the San Diego Union-Tribune that Del Mar was in serious negotiations for it. We like those guys.

Weekly handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Today’s lesson is from the first race at Santa Anita. Take it away, Rob.

“Things kick off Saturday with a maiden special weight at 1 ⅛ miles on the turf, the type of longer distance usually written for better horses around here, unlike on the East coast where long turf assignments are written for even the cheapest of cheap. When it comes to these maiden races, they’re often fairly easy to decipher with regard to intention of the connections. For example, the #1 horse in here, MERCY MERCY, has been dull in a pair of flat mile races, and now off the freshening, Robert Hess sends much longer, looking to mix things up while figuring out what he’s got. We would look to defeat. #2 STYLIN OCEAN is simply, even, almost dull races, now given more room to see if that variable can help produce a better try. On the other hand, both our selections are well meant, both off the debut. Top choice is TRUFFALINO (#3). She was given her first effort, and if let’s take a look at her own individual splits in that first try, they look like this: :25.1, :23.3, :24.3, :23.2. Those are outstanding, basically walking out of the gate, allowed to settle in the back, watching runners up ahead her, before she was asked to run a bit by Joe Talamo, and those final three splits are solid, absolutely the right type of race to ready for the longer assignment. Expecting she’ll be a bit closer up Saturday, before Joe comes running with her. FASHION ISLAND (#6) actually finished a few lengths in front of the top pick, also her debut as well, and the same well intended principles we discussed with the top selection, also would apply here, now given more group off the needed experience of the debut, while Drayden Van Dyke sees fit to return, always a good sign. Five works are in place, and an effective progressing try seems within reason here.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: Through two races days, runners who made their last start at Golden Gate, and then ran on the TURF here today, they’re a combined 0 for 5 with none hitting the board.

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 3-6-7

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): +0.50 (average group)

“Positive Notes:

“4 Hello Bubbles - following the freshening, Neil sent two turns, and he responded well, now given more ground with Joel Rosario, a good thing as Joel is so good cat carrying his mounts down the lane.

“7 Out of Balance – David Hofmans freshened him, adds more ground and Flavien Prat, with a full set of six works in place, Not tough to find.

“Negative Notes:

“5 Speedette - Comes in from Golden Gate, see “Trend” above.

“First Timers:

“9 Maxim Rate - The fact Prat doesn’t ride here, tells us he’s likely gonna need the race. If Flavien had been working her in the mornings, he would likely be aboard, especially if entering this one going ultra long as we see today. The mount is given to newly arrived Euro invader Andrea Atzeni, certainly not a bad thing, but we’ll still try and beat.

“TOP PICK: TRUFFALINO (#3 12-1 Talamo) $ Win Wager

“SECOND CHOICE: FASHION ISLAND (#6 3-1 Van Dyke) $ Win Wager”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

The feature on Friday was the $75,000 Eddie Logan Stakes, named for the legendary shoeshine guy at the track. It’s a mile on the turf. Bob and Jackie ran a smart race near or at the front and went to the lead on the rail and held on gamely to win by a length.

Trained by Richard Baltas and ridden by Heriberto Figueroa, he paid $7.80, $3.40 and $2.80. Rijeka, also a Baltas runner, finished second and More Ice was third. The morning-line favorite, Flying Scotsman, was a vet scratch.

“I had one speed horse and one closer,” Baltas told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “Bob and Jackie came out of the 10-hole and he pulled his way to the lead. With the rail being out today (20 feet), there might have been a little speed bias, but he’s a good horse.”

Santa Anita preview

The first Saturday card of the new season is 10 races starting at 12 p.m. There are only four turf races but two of them are graded stakes. Field sizes remain very strong, as you might expect this early in the season.

The first stakes is the Grade 3 $150,000 Robert J. Frankel Stakes for fillies and mares going 1 1/8 miles. Fahan Mura is the favorite at 5-2 for trainer Vladimir Cerin and Edwin Maldonado. She is six for 10 this year running mostly graded stakes. She has won five of six at Santa Anita, with one second.

Escape Clause and Excellent Sunset are co-second-favorites at 7-2. Escape Clause has won nine of 12 at slightly lower levels. Excellent Sunset has won three of her last five. Post will be about 1:35 p.m.

The big race is the eighth, the Grade 1 $300,000 American Oaks for 3-year-olds going 1 ¼ miles on the turf. Californiagoldrush is 5-2 favorite having won three-of-four lifetime. She is trained by Neil Drysdale and ridden by Flavien Prat. Her only miss was a third in the Del Mar Oaks.

Paved, at 3-1, is the second favorite. She was 12^th in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile last out and has run four straight Grade 1s, but with no wins. Michael McCarthy trains and Drayden Van Dyke rides. Post is around 3:35 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 9, 8, 12, 8, 7, 9, 12, 8, 8, 12.

Stewards’ rulings

No, we haven’t forgot about the stewards’ rulings and minutes from Los Alamitos but the CHRB, now a couple of weeks after the close of the meeting, still hasn’t made them public on its website. We’re going to blame it on the holidays. I was on Sirius/XM the other day with the legendary race caller Dave Johnson and veteran journalist Bill Finley. Johnson was talking about how the rulings are one of his favorite features in the newsletter. Unlike the idiom, “Laws are like sausages, it’s better not to see them being made,” it’s the making of the rulings that is most interesting. Anyway, they haven’t gone away, just waiting to be picked up at the airport.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

10:00 Laurel (3): $100,000 Heft Stakes, 2-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Alwaysmining (2-1)

10:35 Gulfstream (4): $100,000 Janus Stakes, 3 and up, 5 furlongs on turf. Favorite: Pay Any Price (7-5)

11:30 Laurel (6): $100,000 Gin Talking Stakes, fillies 2-years-old, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Please Flatter Me (3-1)

11:37 Gulfstream (6): $100,000 Abundantia Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 5 furlongs on turf. Favorite: Morticia (7-2)

11:47 Aqueduct (6): $100,000 East View Stakes, NY-bred fillies 2-years-old, 1 mile. Favorite: Sassy Agnes (3-1)

12:00 Laurel (7): $100,000 Thirty Eight Go Go Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 mile. Favorite: Sower (5-2)

12:30 Laurel (8): $100,000 Dave’s Friend Stakes, 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Laki (2-1)

12:47 Aqueduct (8): $100,000 Alex M. Robb Stakes, NY-breds 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Control Group (9-5)

1:34 Santa Anita (4): Grade 3 $150,000 Robert J. Frankel Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Farhan Mura (5-2)

1:41 Gulfstream (10): $100,000 H. Allen Jerkens Stakes, 3 and up, 2 miles on turf. Favorite: Soglio (9-5)

3:34: Santa Anita (8): Grade 1 $300,000 American Oaks Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 ¼ miles on turf. Favorite: Californiagoldrush (5-2)

Bob Ike’s SA pick of the day

SEVENTH RACE: No. 11 Violent Behavior (7-2)

Maiden claimer from the Dan Blacker stable has run two winning races in a row but settled for second both times, finishing well clear of the third horse in each. He was getting to the winner last time and will appreciate the increase in distance to six furlongs, so “single” in all horizontal bets.

Friday’s result: Majestic Eagle (4-1) did not get the anticipated front-running trip we had hoped for (the winner did), then was outfinished late for the secondary awards while winding up fourth.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

SECOND RACE: No. 3 Jet Pak Black (3-1)

Gelding returns to his winning level from two races back while getting reunited with Kellie McDaid, last meet’s leading thoroughbred rider. He doesn’t need the lead to win but his tactical speed should have him positioned near expected pacesetters Shadow Op and Runbrorun, who are both most effective when unpressured early. His trainer, Lorenzo Ruiz, won with 10 of 27 thoroughbred starters at the 2017-18 Los Al night meet.

Final thought

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Any thoughts, you can reach me at johnacherwa@gmail.com. You can also feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

MAGNIFICENT MCCOOL stalked a bit off the rail then outside a rival, moved up three deep leaving the turn and into the stretch to gain the lead and drew clear under urging. SHINING THROUGH came out a bit at the break, saved ground stalking the pace, came out in a bit tight for room leaving the turn and into the stretch, angled out again in midstretch and was second best. MYSTICAL MOON had speed outside then inched away and angled in, set the pace inside, dueled on the backstretch and second turn and into the stretch and bested the others. UNION STATION a bit crowded early, saved ground chasing the pace throughout and lacked the needed rally. SEVEN OXEN stalked three deep then bid three wide on the backstretch and second turn, steadied in tight between foes leaving that turn and weakened. LEADER OF MEN a bit slow to begin, chased outside a rival, came out leaving the second turn, was fanned five wide into the stretch and lacked a further response. SPEAKEROFTHEHOUSE stalked between foes then bid between rivals to press the pace, fell back on the second turn, drifted four wide into the stretch and weakened. SPECTATOR'S DREAM chased three deep, came out leaving the second turn, was fanned six wide into the stretch and also weakened. EMOTIONAL WRECK broke slowly, angled in and dropped back early, fell farther back on the backstretch and second turn and was eased through the drive. A claim of foul by the rider of the runner-up against the winner for alleged interference leaving the second turn was not allowed by the stewards, who ruled the former came out and contributed to his own trouble.

KNIGHT'S CROSS sped to the early lead, set the pace along the inside, responded when challenged into the stretch, inched away again under urging in midstretch and won clear under steady handling late. FROZEN MONEY stalked a bit off the rail, bid outside the winner into the stretch, could not match that one in the final furlong but clearly bested the rest. ROCKANDAHARDPLACE three deep into the first turn, stalked off the rail then outside the runner-up leaving the backstretch, continued off the inside on the second turn and into the stretch and held third. NEW SALUTE broke out a bit, settled off the rail then angled in leaving the first turn and saved ground thereafter and put in a late bid at a minor award. SOONER BETTER angled in early then came out leaving the first turn, chased off the rail to the stretch and had little left for the drive.

DON'T STALK ME stalked off the rail then outside a rival, went up four wide leaving the turn and three deep into the stretch, gained the lead in upper stretch and drew off under some left handed urging. HOLLYWOOD DANCER sped to the early lead, set the pace along the inside, fought back into the stretch and just held second. OLDER BROTHER close up stalking the pace inside, came out a bit into the stretch and was edged for the place while outside the runner-up on the line. BOB'S ALL IN dropped back inside early, came a bit off the rail on the turn, swung out into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. QUAD stalked between horses on the backstretch and turn, came out some into the stretch and weakened. OUR TIGER'S BOY broke out a bit, was four wide early, stalked three deep, came four wide into the stretch and also weakened.

SHUT IT UP went up inside to duel for the lead, came a bit off the rail into the stretch, inched away under urging in the drive and held. ILHA DO MEL stalked between horses then inside leaving the hill and into the stretch and finished willingly. ENCANTA chased outside then three deep on the hill and four wide into the stretch and was edged for the place. OBJECTIVE pulled her way along just off the rail then chased inside, came out leaving the hill and into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. RATHER NOSY angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, continued inside in the drive and could not offer the necessary response. FIGHT NIGHT sped to the early lead, dueled outside the winner, came out some into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. LIL RESPECT angled in and saved ground off the pace, came out a bit into the stretch and lacked a rally. TO THE MORNING had speed outside foes then stalked off the rail, angled in outside a rival leaving the hill and weakened. MALIBU CAT stalked three deep then angled in between foes leaving the hill and also weakened. ENLISTING hesitated to be away behind the field, settled off the rail then outside a rival leaving the hill, came out into the stretch and was not a threat. Rail on hill at 14 feet.

ONE UPPER chased outside then four wide on the turn, bid three deep into the stretch, took a short lead in deep stretch under urging and held gamely. PEACHY chased between horses then just off the rail, came out into the stretch and finished well. COPPER COWGIRL stalked off the rail then bid outside a rival to duel for the lead, took the advantage into the stretch, fought back between foes in midstretch then off the rail in deep stretch and bested the others. MI PAJARITO dueled inside, fought back on the turn and in the stretch and weakened late. K P'S SMOKIN settled off the rail then five wide on the turn and four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. WARM IT UP stalked three deep between horses then off the rail leaving the turn, angled in outside a rival into the stretch and weakened, then was unsaddled on the clubhouse turn and walked off. DRESSED IN PRADA settled between horses then chased outside, came four wide into the stretch and did not rally. BLISSFUL LADY stalked between foes then a bit off the rail on the turn, dropped back outside a rival nearing the stretch and weakened. FELLINA chased between rivals, dropped back off the rail on the turn, came four wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. HALO GIRL saved ground stalking the pace, also dropped back on the turn, came out into the stretch and had little left for the drive. DESIRED EDGE stalked between horses, angled in on the turn and gave way.

EPICAL sped to the early lead and angled in, set all the pace inside, opened up on the second turn and won clear under urging. MAESTRO DEARTE angled in and chased a bit off the rail, came out leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch and split rivals in deep stretch for the place. KAZAN (IRE) bumped at the start, angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, came out on the second turn and five wide into the stretch and was edged for the place three deep on the line. MAJESTIC EAGLE broke out and bumped a rival, stalked a bit off the rail, went between foes on the second turn and a bit off the rail into the stretch and was edged for third. WHOOP WHOOP (NZ) angled in and saved ground stalking the pace and weakened in the final furlong. STARTING BLOC settled inside, came out leaving the second turn and into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. YA GOTTA WANNA saved ground stalking the pace, steadied in tight early on the second turn and again leaving that turn and weakened. ARMS RUNNER close up stalking the pace three deep then outside a rival, went three wide into the stretch and also weakened. ANY QUESTIONS angled in and chased outside a rival, swung four wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. ECKERSLEY stumbled badly at the start, settled outside a rival to the stretch and did not rally.

ARISTOCRATIC had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away into the stretch and won clear under left handed urging. SMUGGLER UNION bumped early, chased a bit off the rail, swung out four wide into the stretch and finished with interest. SHORT OF EZ dueled between horses then outside the winner on the turn and into the stretch and just held third. ZIPPY GROOM bumped between horses early, settled just off the rail, split horses in midstretch and again at the wire to be edged for the show. JUMP THE TRACKS broke a bit slowly, settled inside, continued along the rail in the stretch and was edged for a minor share. ZAP AGAIN pressed the pace between horses then stalked a bit off the rail, angled to the inside leaving the turn and weakened. DOWNSIDE UP settled outside then off the rail, came three deep into the stretch and lacked a rally. SEAU pressed the pace four wide then three deep into the turn, stalked off the rail on the turn and a bit wide into the stretch and weakened.

BOB AND JACKIE pulled his way along three deep then dueled outside a rival, took a short lead between foes leaving the backstretch, inched away a bit off the rail on the second turn and held on gamely under urging. RIJEKA (IRE) stalked inside, split horses early on the second turn, continued inside into the stretch, came out nearing midstretch and finished willingly but could not catch the winner. MORE ICE saved ground chasing the pace, went outside a rival leaving the second turn then angled back to the inside and picked up the show. THE CREEP tugged between horses early then stalked off the rail, bid three deep leaving the backstretch, stalked again on the second turn, was between foes into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. WEEKLY CALL broke a bit slowly, chased outside a rival, went four wide on the second turn and into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. SPARKY VILLE stalked outside a rival then between foes on the second turn and weakened. SWAMP SOUFFLE between horses early, tugged his way along off the rail, went four wide into the second turn and three deep into the stretch and also weakened. MANHATTAN UP had speed inside to duel for the lead, steadied in tight into the second turn, dropped back on that turn, was pulled up in the stretch and walked off.

BANZE NO OESTE (BRZ) stalked off the rail, bid three deep leaving the backstretch then took the lead outside the runner-up on the second turn, battled outside that one under urging through the stretch and inched away late while drifting in. KENZOU'S RHYTHM had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back on the second turn and in the stretch and could not quite match the winner late. HARD ARCH four wide into the first turn, chased outside or off the rail, came five wide into the stretch and edged a rival for the show. DUKES UP chased off the rail, split horses on the second turn, came three deep into the stretch and was edged for third. BROKEN UP angled in and saved ground off the pace, came out leaving the second turn and three wide into the stretch and improved position. TRAPALANDA four wide into the first turn, stalked outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. GIO'S CALLING five wide into the first turn, chased outside, came four wide into the stretch and did not rally. HARROVIAN drifted out into the first turn, angled in and stalked a bit off the rail then inside on the second turn, came out into the stretch and weakened. AIR POCKET dueled outside a rival then between horses leaving the backstretch, dropped back and angled in on the second turn and had little left for the stretch. DEDICATED TO YOU hopped in a bit of a slow start, angled in and settled inside, dropped back just off the rail into and on the second turn, gave way and was eased in the drive.