It’s hard to Justify any other horse winning the Preakness
There are two things that people have been talking about in connection with Saturday’s running of the Preakness Stakes — and both seem to be powerful forces of nature.
Experts have all but conceded the second leg of the Triple Crown will go to Kentucky Derby winner Justify, who could become the 13th horse to win the coveted three-race series.
The other force is the weather. Since Tuesday, almost 5 inches of rain has fallen in Baltimore, leading to flash flood warnings. There is a 100% chance of rain Saturday, and with that comes a waterlogged track.
Eight horses are entered in the 1 3/16-mile race, the shortest race in the Triple Crown. Only Good Magic, who finished second in the Kentucky Derby, is given any chance to hand Justify his first loss. Justify is a crushing 1-2 favorite, while Good Magic is 3-1. Bravazo (sixth in the Derby) and Lone Sailor (eighth) are the only other colts who ran in Louisville two weeks ago.
One of the most famous Preakness races was in 2015 when a fast-moving rain fell on Pimlico at race time, making it difficult for even the announcer to pick up the horses as they went to post.
That race was won by American Pharoah, who became the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years. Justify is now being talked about in the same rarified air as American Pharoah. It’s an inevitable comparison as both horses had Bob Baffert as their trainer. When asked how good Justify is, Baffert always comes back to American Pharoah.
“What [Justify and American Pharoah] have in common is they are extremely fast,” Baffert said Friday morning standing in the stakes barn at Pimlico. “They could both win the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. They are just superior horses.”
The weather isn’t a concern for Baffert; Justify has won two of his four races over a wet track, including the Kentucky Derby.
But he does have a personal weather forecaster, his 13-year-old son, Bode.
“Bode is the only one that got the forecast right [at the Derby],” Baffert said as he floated a light-hearted conspiracy theory.
“He told me before we went there, ‘Dad, I hope he likes the mud. It’s really going to be rainy.’ I got to Louisville, and they said it was going to be a nice day. But I think they are trying to sell all those seats. The Weather Channel and Churchill Downs get together, and as soon as they sold the last seat, ‘Oh, it’s going to rain.’ ”
Bode has told his father to expect rain Saturday but deferred a more detailed forecast until he checks the Doppler radar in the morning.
Baffert has brought a Kentucky Derby winner to Pimlico four times in the past and won the race each time. He’s got six Preakness wins and one more will tie him with Robert Wyndham Walden, who won his last Preakness in 1888.
Still, Baffert, a self-admitted worrier, is trying to make a case for other horses, even though he knows it’s Justify’s race to lose.
“We have Good Magic, who I have a lot of respect for,” Baffert said. “He’s a champion. He’s right there with us. You’ve got new shooters. John Servis [trainer of Diamond King] — he didn’t come for the crabcakes. You’ve got Quip — he’s a really good horse; he’s fast.
“And you can’t count Wayne Lukas out [with Bravazo and Sporting Chance]. That’s when he does the most damage when nobody is talking about him, under the radar. He still knows his horses, and he comes up here for a reason.”
Good Magic finished 2 1/2 lengths behind Justify at Churchill Downs, which trainer Chad Brown is hoping is close enough to overcome.
“There’s still the opportunity to close the gap if our horse moves forward and his horse regresses in any way,” Brown said. “[Regression] is a lot to ask for a horse like Justify, who has moved forward with every one of his starts. You have to be optimistic that … you might be able to make up some ground on him.”
Tom Amoss, who trains Lone Sailor, sees it like most everyone else.
“I think it’s important to note that both Good Magic and Justify looked really good on the track,” Amoss said. “I’m in the barn with them now. I can see them up close. I can see them gallop. They look really good. I’d say that for the rest of us, our task is formidable.”
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