Who can win Kentucky Derby? These prep races offer final chances to clarify the picture

A year ago this time, everyone was braced for an early showdown of Nyquist, the best West Coast horse, and Mohaymen, the best in the East, in the Florida Derby. If Nyquist won, which he did, there was a $1-million bonus.

There was buzz. There was energy. There were even whispers of another Triple Crown winner.

And then there is this year, a muddled mess of wannabes, with no clear favorite heading into the final set of prep races for the Kentucky Derby on May 6.

“It’s been a weird spring because the top contenders have had either a temporary or permanent setback,” said Jay Privman, national correspondent for the Daily Racing Form.

“It ranges from McCraken and Classic Empire having minor injuries to miss a prep race to Mastery being hurt seconds after winning the San Felipe.”

These next three weekends are the last chances to clarify the picture. This weekend has the Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby. Next weekend, the Blue Grass Stakes, Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby will take place, followed by the Arkansas Derby on April 15.

Privman, who will be covering his 35th consecutive Kentucky Derby, is paying particular attention to two of the races.

“The Blue Grass [headed by McCraken] is coming up with a really good quality field, and the Arkansas Derby, because that’s where Classic Empire is going to go,” Privman said.

“If either of those horses win either of those races in impressive fashion, you’ll have a solid Derby favorite. If both lose, the chaos will continue.”

Here’s a look at each of those 1 1/8-mile races.

Florida Derby (Saturday): The big favorite in that race will be Gunnevera, the only stakes winner in the race, but his outside post and the short run to the first turn could work against him.

Trainer Jose Pinchin said that Three Rules would be pointed toward the Preakness Stakes instead of the Kentucky Derby, then backtracked.

“If you win the Florida Derby, you got to go on to Kentucky,” Pinchin said. “You know what I mean?”

Louisiana Derby (Saturday): Girvin, named for a town in Texas, should be the heavy favorite even though this will be only his fourth race. He won the Risen Star.

“I don’t think to simulate race experience at this point [is worthwhile], so basically just throw it at him and see how he takes it and how everything comes up,” said Joe Sharp, Girvin’s trainer.

Blue Grass Stakes (April 8): McCraken, undefeated in four starts, hasn’t raced since Feb. 17. He skipped the Tampa Bay Derby because of a minor injury to his left front ankle.

Also in the race are Tapwrit, winner of the Tampa Bay Derby; J Boys Echo, winner of the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct; and Practical Joke, second in the Fountain of Youth.

Santa Anita Derby (April 8): For a racing area that has campaigned four of the last five Kentucky Derby winners, this year is extremely thin after Mastery’s injury. Of the 23 horses in the Kentucky Derby futures pool, only four are from the West Coast.

Trainer Doug O’Neill is running four horses (Iliad, Milton Freewater, So Conflated and Term of Art), so he has a shot, with Iliad probably the best of the bunch. And trainer Bob Baffert is considering running three (American Anthem, Reach the World and West Coast.)

Gormley, trained by John Shirreffs, has run extremely well, followed by a bad race. He was a disappointing fourth in the San Felipe Stakes.

“The good Gormley can win the Santa Anita Derby,” Privman said. “The bad Gormley can finish eighth.”

Wood Memorial (April 8): A race that had a very average field got bad news Thursday when it was announced that El Areeb would have to have surgery for a bone chip.

One Liner, undefeated in three starts, is the likely favorite over Cloud Computing, second in the Gotham, and Holy Bull Stakes winner Irish War Cry.

“There’s just not much there,” Privman said.

Arkansas Derby (April 15): The key factor here is how Classic Empire will run. The winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile hasn’t run since Feb. 17, when he finished a disappointing third in the Holy Bull. He has been a handful to train, between a couple of minor injuries and his refusal to breeze. However, trainer Mark Casse reported he had a very good five-furlong work earlier this week.

A big question mark will be Malagacy, winner of his three races by a total of 24 lengths.

“I think he’s a very good horse, but he may be distance challenged,” Privman said. “He doesn’t look like a classic long-distance kind of horse, plus I think the field he beat in the Rebel [Stakes] was suspect.”

Dortmund back on dirt

This weekend’s most interesting race at Santa Anita will be Saturday’s $75,000 Santana Mile. Dortmund, a former Santa Anita Derby winner, is hoping to return to form as he runs on the dirt. The 5-year-old recently switched barns, from Baffert to Art Sherman. In his first race for Sherman, he ran a poor sixth in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile on the grass.

Last year, Dortmund was California Chrome’s chief rival until Arrogate came around. Now, he spends his barn time in Chrome’s double-wide stall at Los Alamitos.

The Santana will be the eighth race on an 11-race card. First post is 12:30 p.m.

john.cherwa@latimes.com

Twitter: @jcherwa