Sam Farmer’s NFL picks for Week 17

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Pregame.com (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 11-5 (.688); season 159-79-2 (.668). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 8-8 (.500); season 122-111-7 (.524).

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Baltimore (8-7) at Cincinnati (5-9-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Ravens 27, Bengals 24

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: PK. O/U: 41 1/2.

The Ravens are a better organization and they’re determined to finish strong after a devastating loss at Pittsburgh. The Bengals are shutting down A.J. Green early and that matters.

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Jacksonville (3-12) at Indianapolis (7-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Colts 30, Jaguars 24

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Colts by 4 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

If you’re Andrew Luck, there’s no taking your foot off the accelerator, whether your team has a chance to move forward or not. The Jaguars are young and talented on defense, but …

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New England (13-2) at Miami (10-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Patriots 27, Dolphins 23

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Patriots by 9 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Patriots haven’t locked up the No. 1 seed, and they’re not going to leave that up to chance. Bill Belichick has seen enough of Matt Moore to draw a bead on his tendencies.

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Buffalo (7-8) at N.Y. Jets (4-11)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Jets 21, Bills 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Bills by 3 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

Cold of the Bills to fire Rex Ryan before he gets to face his former team. Tyrod Taylor won’t be playing (EJ Manuel starts), and the Jets can get after the quarterback. Go with the home team.

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Cleveland (1-14) at Pittsburgh (10-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Browns 23, Steelers 21

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Steelers by 6 1/2. O/U: 43.

Mike Tomlin has hinted he might rest Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell and Maurkice Pouncey. Why gift-wrap the No. 1 pick for a division rival?

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Houston (9-6) at Tennessee (8-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Texans 21, Titans 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Titans by 3. O/U: 40.

If you’re the Texans, you need to get Tom Savage and your retooled offense more reps to get them ready for the first round of the playoffs. Matt Cassel will be respectable for the Titans.

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Chicago (3-12) at Minnesota (7-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Vikings 23, Bears 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Vikings by 6 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

Matt Barkley has made some beautiful throws for the Bears, but he’s tried to force the ball into small spaces too. The Vikings are a different team than they were, but their defense can still play.

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Dallas (13-2) at Philadelphia (6-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Eagles 28, Cowboys 23

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Eagles by 4. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Cowboys might play Mark Sanchez at quarterback instead of Tony Romo. Give the edge to the Eagles, who want to finish strong with rookie Carson Wentz at the helm.

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Carolina (6-9) at Tampa Bay (8-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Buccaneers 24, Panthers 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Buccaneers by 4 1/2. O/U: 46.

Always go with the teams that have incentive to win in Week 17. Even though the Buccaneers have to thread the needle in an almost impossible way, they still have a playoff pulse.

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Oakland (12-3) at Denver (8-7)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Broncos 21, Raiders 17

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Broncos by 1. O/U: 40.

The Broncos are a well-coached, veteran team that’s going to finish strong at home. Raiders fill-in quarterback Matt McGloin hasn’t started a game in three years, and Denver’s defense is stout.

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Kansas City (11-4) at San Diego (5-10)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Chiefs 24, Chargers 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Chiefs by 5 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Chiefs still have a chance to win the AFC West. The Chiefs will take care of business against a banged-up Chargers team that has big changes in store this off-season.

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New Orleans (7-8) at Atlanta (10-5)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Falcons 38, Saints 31

TV: None. DirecTV: 716.

Line: Falcons by 7. O/U: 56.

The Falcons have the No. 2 seed and the bye dangling in front of them. Can’t trust the New Orleans defense to hold up in that situation, not against an offense that can score so many.

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N.Y. Giants (10-5) at Washington (8-6-1)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Giants 30, Redskins 27

TV: None. DirecTV: 717.

Line: Redskins by 7 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Giants are in, and the Redskins need to win. That favors Washington in terms of incentive. However, the Giants’ front four is not going to roll over for a division rival.

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Arizona (6-8-1) at Los Angeles (4-11)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Cardinals 31, Rams 20

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 718.

Line: Cardinals by 6 1/2. O/U: 41.

The Cardinals are more solid than the Rams at several key spots, and they’ve got some swagger after their win at Seattle. Plus, it’s difficult to sweep a division opponent.

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Seattle (9-5-1) at San Francisco (2-13)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Seahawks 31, 49ers 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 719.

Line: Seahawks by 10. O/U: 43.

The Seahawks still have a chance for a first-round bye, and that’s plenty of incentive. They’re a better team, and Pete Carroll won’t let them take their foot off the gas here.

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Green Bay (9-6) at Detroit (9-6)

Sunday, 5:30 p.m.

Packers 31, Lions 27

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Packers by 3. O/U: 49 1/2.

Matthew Stafford has looked really good lately, and the Lions are at home. That said, Aaron Rodgers has been on fire, and Green Bay has the experience to win in these situations.