SAM FARMER’S PICKS

It was precisely at this point last season when the clouds parted, the angels sang and the Miami Dolphins finally won a game. They beat Baltimore to narrowly avoid becoming the first team in NFL history to finish 0-16.

How amazing that Miami -- revamped by Bill Parcells, Tony Sparano, Chad Pennington and others -- is now in a three-way tie for first in the AFC East.

Standing in the Dolphins’ path to the postseason are their next two opponents, San Francisco and Kansas City, both of whom have been mathematically eliminated. But Miami players who were around last season know that dead-in-the-water teams can still be dangerous.

“Considering where we’ve come from, I think it would be highly unlikely to overlook an opponent,” defensive end Vonnie Holliday told the Miami Herald this week.

So, maybe there’s hope for the winless Detroit Lions.

Kidding, of course.

On to this week’s picks:

Washington at Cincinnati: Although Washington’s offense has been sputtering lately -- the team has averaged 10.6 points over the last five games -- it should look decent against a horrendous Cincinnati defense that has given up 27, 34 and 35 points in the last three weeks. Pick: Washington.

San Diego at Kansas City: The Chargers, who are on the verge of mathematical elimination from the playoff race, are 1-5 on the road this season. Herm Edwards, whose team nearly won at San Diego, should treat this as an audition for the San Diego State job. Pick: Kansas City.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: An otherwise impressive Buccaneers run defense was trampled by Carolina on Monday night, so that unit’s pride is on the line Sunday. It did a good job of containing Michael Turner before and will be primed for an encore. Pick: Tampa Bay.

Detroit at Indianapolis: This has the makings of a trap game for the Colts, who are capable of turning in a stinker performance from time to time. But Detroit just doesn’t seem to have the heart to finish off any opponent, let alone a team with Peyton Manning at quarterback. Pick: Indianapolis.

Green Bay at Jacksonville: The Packers haven’t won a road game since an Oct. 12 victory at Seattle and are 0-5 in games decided by four points or fewer. Good thing for them they’re playing a team that has already packed it in for the season. Pick: Green Bay.

Seattle at St. Louis: Both of these teams showed flickers of life at midseason, but now -- as Dennis Green might say -- they are who we thought they were. The Seahawks have looked a little better than the Rams recently, even when Matt Hasselbeck has been sidelined. Pick: Seattle.

San Francisco at Miami: After West Coast teams lost their first 16 games in the Eastern time zone, the 49ers finally broke that streak by winning at Buffalo two weeks ago. Now comes a tougher task. The Dolphins are solid against the run, and San Francisco’s Frank Gore is nursing a sore ankle. Pick: Miami.

Buffalo at New York Jets: Immediately after their West Coast losses to San Diego and Oakland this season, the Jets bounced back with home victories over Arizona and Kansas City. No reason to think that now -- fresh off a loss at San Francisco -- they won’t beat Buffalo. Pick: New York Jets.

Tennessee at Houston: The Texans have a chance for their first four-game winning streak in franchise history. But their three most recent opponents -- Cleveland, Jacksonville and Green Bay -- are a combined 0-9 over the last three weeks. The tough Titans still have homefield advantage in their cross hairs. Pick: Tennessee.

Minnesota at Arizona: Finally, a December game that is meaningful for the Cardinals. Both teams have good reason to be motivated. If Arizona’s 12th-ranked run defense can keep Adrian Peterson in check, then Kurt Warner will have time to work his magic. Pick: Arizona.

Denver at Carolina: Carolina hasn’t lost at home all season. Even though the Broncos have played very well on the road lately, they’ll be hard-pressed to stop the Panthers’ balanced offensive attack -- whether Champ Bailey makes his return or not. Pick: Carolina.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: This might be the best matchup of the day, pitting two premier defenses with the AFC North title still up for grabs. A key for the Steelers is establishing a ground game that has been missing for several weeks. That won’t be easy against a Baltimore defense that’s ranked third against the run. Pick: Baltimore.

New England at Oakland: The Patriots still have something to play for -- they’re in a three-way tie for first in the AFC East with the Jets and Dolphins -- whereas the Raiders are simply playing for pride. With victories at San Francisco and Seattle, New England has shown it can win on the West Coast. Pick: New England.

New York Giants at Dallas: Brandon Jacobs has a tender knee and might not play. That’s big news for Dallas, because he’s a beast to stop, and the Giants ran for 200 yards against the Cowboys in their Week 9 meeting (a 35-14 victory by the Giants). The Giants need a win, but Dallas needs one more. Pick: Dallas.

Cleveland at Philadelphia: The only way the Eagles will get in trouble here is if they’re looking ahead to their final two games, against Washington and Dallas. Philadelphia, coming off big victories over Arizona and the Giants, faces third-string quarterback Ken Dorsey and a Browns team that’s even thinking about mixing in receiver Josh Cribbs under center. Pick: Philadelphia.

Season record: 127-79-1 (.617).

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sam.farmer@latimes.com