USC vs. UCLA: How the Trojans and Bruins match up for Saturday’s rivalry game

USC (7-3) at UCLA (4-6) at the Rose Bowl. TV: ESPN, 7:30 p.m.

Times staff writer Ben Bolch analyzes Saturday’s matchup:

Most intriguing story line: If the college football monopoly in Los Angeles were the familiar board game, USC would be claiming second prize in a beauty contest after offsetting its horrid start with six consecutive victories. UCLA would be seeking a “Get out of jail free” card after four losses in five games. It’s been that kind of season for the local teams, though the Trojans still had a chance to reach the Pac-12 Conference title game going into Saturday. The upside to the rivalry game is that whoever prevails always feels like it just landed on “Go.”

UCLA pass offense vs. USC pass defense: Mike Fafaul is trying to go where Patrick Cowan, John Barnes and Norm Dow have gone before him, leading the Bruins to victory over the Trojans as a backup quarterback. He’s been a fairly efficient game manager except for the 10 passes he’s had intercepted, a trend that can’t continue for UCLA to win Saturday. Bruins receivers have been plagued by more drops than the Dow Jones on Black Monday. A USC secondary that features Adoree’ Jackson and Iman Marshall could make them even more skittish.

EDGE: USC

UCLA run offense vs. USC run defense: The Bruins had something to celebrate in their run game for the first time in more than a month when they gained 163 yards rushing last week against Oregon State. It didn’t exactly budge the big picture, however, because the Beavers aren’t known for run defense and UCLA still ranks next to last among 128 Football Bowl Subdivision teams with an average of 87 yards rushing per game. USC has been stout against the run, allowing 139 yards rushing per game.

EDGE: USC

USC pass offense vs. UCLA pass defense: The story of the Trojans’ turnaround essentially begins and ends with quarterback Sam Darnold, whose playmaking has elevated USC to elite status during its winning streak. He’s passed for 22 touchdowns with only six interceptions while distributing the ball to a cast of big-play receivers that includes JuJu Smith-Schuster and Darreus Rogers. UCLA’s secondary is one of its primary strengths, having allowed only eight touchdown passes in 10 games, and Bruins defensive end Takkarist McKinley ranks second in the nation with 1.11 sacks per game.

EDGE: USC

USC run offense vs. UCLA run defense: Trojans tailback Ronald Jones II has trampled strong and weak defenses alike in recent weeks, averaging 162 yards rushing during victories over California, Oregon and Washington. Fellow tailback Justin Davis was eased back into action last week from the high ankle sprain that had sidelined him for about a month, gaining a UCLA-like four yards in five carries. But USC is averaging 202 yards rushing per game and its ability to set up the pass with the run is something that could make the Bruins envious all night.

EDGE: USC

Special teams: UCLA went back to the freshmen in its kicking game last week, with mixed success; kicker J.J. Molson made a career-best 49-yard field goal against Oregon State but punter Austin Kent struggled again before departing with a sore knee. They’ll both want to keep the ball away from USC’s Jackson, who has returned a kickoff and a punt for touchdowns this season.

EDGE: USC

Ben Bolch’s pick: UCLA Coach Jim Mora turns 55 on Saturday. Whether he feels haggard or rejuvenated will largely be dictated by players less than half his age. The Bruins have the defense to stick around a la the team’s 13-9 upset victory over USC in 2006, but the Trojans’ bevy of playmakers gives them an edge. USC 27, UCLA 24

Zach Helfand’s pick: During its six-game winning streak, USC has held each of its opponents to a season low in points. That streak will end against the Bruins — but only because the bar is low. UCLA doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with USC’s efficient offense and hot defense. USC 31, UCLA 17

ben.bolch@latimes.com

Twitter: @latbbolch