SPRINGFIELD, Mo. --Survey USA has released its final polling numbers before the November 6 election.
In an election for United States Senator from Missouri, incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill leads at the wire, having assembled a coalition that should allow her to defeat Republican challenger Todd Akin, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSDK-TV in St Louis, KSHB-TV in Kansas City, and KSPR-TV and KYTV-TV in Springfield. The contest has national significance. McCaskill gets 51% to 36% for Akin, with Libertarian Jonathan Dine far back at 8%. If Dine's support should collapse on Election Day, those votes almost certainly will go to Akin and will reduce the McCaskill margin of victory shown here.
Akin holds just 66% of the Republican base, compared to McCaskill, who holds 93% of the Democratic base. McCaskill leads among Independents by 24 points, and leads among moderates by 48 points. Of those voting for Barack Obama for President, 97% are also voting for the Democrat McCaskill. But of those voting for Mitt Romney for President, just 70% are also voting for Republican Akin.
In the election for Governor of Missouri, incumbent Democrat Jay Nixon defeats Republican challenger Dave Spence 48% to 39%. White voters split, 44% to 44%. Nixon's entire margin of victory comes from African American voters, who break 11:1 for Nixon.
Mitt Romney carries Missouri 50% to 43%, defeating Barack Obama by 7 points, and keeping Missouri's 10 electoral votes Republican red. Romney leads by 38 points among evangelical voters, and by 50 points among pro-life voters. Obama carries greater St. Louis and effectively ties Romney in greater Kansas City. But Romney has overpowering strength in Southwestern MO and in Northern MO.
SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults from the state of Missouri 10/28/12 through 11/03/12. Of the adults, 643 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 589 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop or other electronic device.