The math makes no sense.
You start with about 22,300 foals in 2014. Figure about half of them are colts, so you’re down to 11,000.
Of those, the field gets cut some more at the start of their third year, when you have to pay $600 to nominate your colt — or sometimes filly — to be eligible to run in the Kentucky Derby. This year there were 418 nominations: 378 colts, 30 geldings, five ridglings and five fillies.
That puts it at 1.9% of the 2014 foals being eligible for what is almost every horse owner’s dream.
Then, cut it to a minimum of 18 horses — automatic berths are given to the winner of the Hyacinth Stakes in Japan and the UAE Derby in Dubai — and you have...