Video ‘Sell-Through’ Stalls

Every year it’s the same prediction--the same wrong prediction.

This is the year, home video executives and industry observers forecast annually, that “sell-through” (slang in video circles for cassette sales) is going to mushroom and become a major force in an industry long dominated by rentals.

According to these optimists, more people will be buying cassettes--which would be an obvious boon to video companies. Many renters, they say, will turn into collectors, purchasing low-priced favorites such as “Top Gun,” “Raiders of the Lost Ark” and “Cinderella” the way that music collectors buy CDs.

What raised hopes this year was the phenomenal sales of “E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial” and “Cinderella” during the last holiday season. Though official figures aren’t in, industry estimates are that MCA sold more than 15 million copies of “E.T.” to retailers and distributors, about five times more than the previous champion. Disney’s “Cinderella” reportedly sold about half of “E.T.’s” total.

But those staggering figures lured forecasters into overestimations.

A survey by Alexander and Associates indicates that consumers are buying more cassettes, but not enough to substantiate those fanciful predictions. Cassette sales are up, according to the survey, by 16.2.%. But analyst Jerilyn Kessel said that the increase isn’t that impressive considering another statistic: a 16.7% growth in VCR households.

“People buy more tapes during the holiday season because they’re buying gifts,” Kessel said, noting that 46% of the tapes purchased during the holiday season fell into that category. “But that excessive gift-buying is seasonal.”

The best thing that has happened to sell-through in years is the emergence of mass-merchants, such as Target and K mart, as major players in the home video sales market.