Evangelicals Found to Hold Largest Share of GOP Base

White evangelical Christians, a strongly conservative group at the center of the internal GOP struggle over abortion, have become the largest religious voting bloc within the Republican Party, according to a new national survey.

Documenting a historic shift, the survey found that white evangelicals now constitute a slightly larger share of the GOP base than the mainline white Protestants who provided the party’s core of support for generations.

Indeed, the survey, released Monday by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, suggests that white evangelicals may have become not only the most numerous but also the most loyal Republican voters. While GOP candidate Bob Dole now trails President Clinton among most major religious groups, including mainline Protestants, evangelical Christians continue to favor him by large margins over the president, the survey found.

These findings underscore the problems facing Dole as he tries to reach out to Republicans who take more moderate views on social issues, particularly abortion. While the evangelical Christians at the center of the new GOP coalition hold strongly antiabortion views, the survey found that strong majorities of mainline Protestants, nonreligious voters and Catholics who held what it termed “progressive” religious views all opposed significant new restrictions on abortion. African American Christians and “traditional” Catholics were in between, leaning toward the antiabortion side.

Overall, the study--based on thousands of interviews dating to 1994 plus a poll conducted from May 31 to June 9--found that religious beliefs and devotion exert a powerful influence on political preference, regardless of denomination. Christian voters with strong religious beliefs were more likely to describe themselves as conservative and Republican.

Within that broad trend, the most dramatic movement is the continued religious realignment within the GOP, as evangelical Christians and (to a slightly lesser extent) conservative Catholics attracted to traditionalist social messages surge into the party.

Only a generation ago, evangelical Christians primarily gave their allegiance to Democrats. Today, just over 4 in 10 evangelical Christians identify themselves as Republicans, compared to about 1 in 4 who call themselves Democrats and 29% who identify themselves as independents.

Other than Mormons, no other religious group is as likely to identify with the GOP. White mainline Protestants are more evenly divided, with 37% calling themselves independents, 34% Republicans and 26% Democrats. White Catholics, who have also moved toward the GOP over the past generation, are now split almost evenly among independents, Democrats and Republicans.

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Looked at from the other side of the telescope, evangelical Protestants now constitute just over 31% of all voters who call themselves Republicans, while mainline white Protestants make up 27% and white Catholics 22% of the GOP base. The remainder scatter among other groups, including 6% who describe themselves as nonreligious.

In contrast, white Catholics, mainline Protestants and evangelical Protestants each constitute about 20% of the Democratic base. Jews, African American Christians and nonbelievers (about 9%) provide the rest.

The study also found that the three largest religious groups--white mainline Protestants (who make up 25% of registered voters), white evangelical Protestants (24%), and white Catholics (22%)--diverge on many key political and social questions.

Just over half of the mainline Protestants and Catholics said society should accept homosexuality as a way of life. In contrast, 72% of evangelical Protestants said society should discourage it. Likewise, only about 4 in 10 Catholics and mainline Protestants said books containing “dangerous ideas” should be banned from public schools, but 60% of evangelicals support such bans.

Catholics and mainline Protestants give the GOP Congress slightly negative job ratings. Evangelicals are strongly favorable.

Ironically, Clinton and Dole both trailed among their own denominations. Clinton’s fellow Baptists preferred Dole, while Dole’s fellow Methodists backed the president, the survey found. Presbyterians also strongly preferred Dole, while Lutherans split evenly between the contenders.