With Senegal at Crossroads, Voters to Decide if It’s Time for Reforms

When voters in Senegal go to the polls today, their main dilemma will be whether to allow a veteran politician who has been in office for almost 20 years to continue to rule or whether to give their West African nation a taste of new power.

The Socialist Party of President Abdou Diouf has ruled Senegal since the nation’s independence from France in 1960, and the incumbent, who’s been at the country’s helm since 1981, is seeking another seven-year term.

Decades of stability, increased political pluralism, a good record on human rights and a willingness to provide troops for peacekeeping operations have won Senegal many friends, among them the United States.

The country also is the most popular tourist destination in West Africa. Its sites include Goree Island, from which millions of enchained slaves were shipped to the United States, and its citizens include popular world music singer Youssou N’Dour.

But many Senegalese feel that the ruling party’s monopoly on power has made it complacent, and as a result, the country’s political progress and economic momentum have stagnated. Many wonder whether Senegal can even have true democracy without a shift in power.

“The main issue is the issue of change, and every political party is trying to project itself as an agent of change for Senegal,” said Christopher Fomunyoh, regional director for West, Central and East Africa at the Washington-based National Democratic Institute for International Affairs. “Many Senegalese feel that, as long as you have one party that dominates the political landscape, you cannot have strong democratic institutions.”

“Our society has evolved, but the politics has not evolved,” said Babacar Toure, chairman and chief executive of Groupe Sud, an independent media concern in the capital, Dakar.

Analysts say that the outcome of today’s vote--and the way it is conducted--could well set the tone for elections on a continent known for its copycat trends. If the balloting goes smoothly, it will provide an example for other countries. But trouble at the polls has a tendency to reverberate throughout sub-Saharan Africa.

The drive for sub-Saharan African independence in the 1950s and ‘60s, the push for multi-party politics in later years and the penchant for coups all snowballed across the continent once one country had taken the lead.

Ghana, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Uganda, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Zimbabwe are among the sub-Saharan African nations expected to have either presidential and legislative elections or a political referendum this year.

In the emotionally charged run-up to the Senegalese vote, attention has been focused more on personalities than on policies. Diouf, 64, a former prime minister, is seeking a fourth term. He faces seven rival candidates who could push him to a second-round runoff May 11--the country’s first--if he fails to win the necessary majority today.

The president credits himself with having held Senegal together despite a slow-burning, 17-year rebellion in the country’s south, as well as with creating jobs, keeping a lid on inflation and stabilizing the country’s external debt.

Diouf’s main challengers--veteran politician Abdoulaye Wade, Moustapha Niasse and Djibo Ka--accuse him of nurturing corruption, neglecting to alleviate poverty and failing to placate the southern rebels, who are demanding sovereignty for their region.

The challengers all insist that they would address these problems, yet political observers predict little change in governance if someone besides Diouf comes to power. Despite their party affiliations, they are all from the same school: Wade is a onetime member of Diouf’s Cabinet, and Niasse and Ka are former functionaries of the ruling party.

“It’s more a question of a political individual wanting to reach the top position than a question of bringing avant-garde policies along,” said Hermann Hanekom, a current affairs specialist at the Africa Institute think tank in Pretoria, South Africa.

“But the days are gone of a charismatic leader,” said Toure, the media group executive. “[Senegal] will have to be led by a team. Whoever wins will have to get into some kind of coalition.”

A peaceful, paternalistic man, according to his supporters, Diouf lost points two years ago when he rescinded his promise to follow in the footsteps of his predecessor, Leopold Sedar Senghor--the first independence leader on the continent to voluntarily give up power--and not seek reelection after his then-mandate ended.

As Diouf approached the end of his third term, in 1998, the Socialist-dominated National Assembly amended the constitution to eliminate a two-term limit established in 1993. The president did not object and has since made clear that he is prepared to be around for a long time.

“The notion of being ground down by power is not something I recognize,” he told supporters at the start of his campaign earlier this month.

Opponents accuse him of wanting to be president for life.

“He’s become a political hack,” said Herman Cohen, a U.S. ambassador to Senegal in the late 1970s who now runs a consulting firm that does lobbying for Congo and Burkina Faso. “He is caught up in the old system.”

And this is what has irked many Senegalese. They complain that Diouf has simply failed to deliver. Senegal is still among the least-developed countries in the world. Social services remain extremely limited, maternal mortality is high, and the average life expectancy is 50. According to statistics from the U.S. Agency for International Development, the country’s per capita gross domestic product, $532 in 1998, has stagnated since independence.

“There’s been very little reform accomplished,” Cohen said. “People are getting tired.”

“[They] want change that comes with stability, that makes investors gain confidence in the country, that puts people back to work--change that doesn’t bring turmoil,” Toure said. “Whether it will take a new person to do this, that is the question at stake.”

An estimated 2.7 million of Senegal’s 10 million people are eligible to vote, and a large turnout is expected. But local human rights officials fear that violence could erupt, as it has in past elections when allegations of political shenanigans boiled over.

Wade, 74, considered to be Diouf’s main competitor, warned earlier this month that, if there is any indication of election fraud, the opposition will take to the streets. The candidate also called on the military to intervene if the government uses force to repress postelection demonstrations.

Rumors of a military coup have also been rife. Some opponents have suggested that the ruling party might engineer a takeover, ensure that it is aborted and then use the infraction as an excuse to cancel the election and stay in power. Others have worried that the army might genuinely intervene in order to guarantee political change, as in the case of Ivory Coast, where in December the military overthrew the government of President Henri Konan Bedie. His Democratic Party had governed Ivory Coast since it gained independence, also from France, in 1960.

But foreign analysts familiar with the ethics of the Senegalese defense forces have said that an election-related putsch is highly unlikely because the country’s soldiers are professional and well paid and have never shown a desire to meddle in politics.

“The military has always seen itself as a protector of the constitution, not a user of the constitution,” Hanekom said. “It’s an army with nice clean boots.”