Coffee prices may stay high for at least two years as El Niño roils supplies
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The latest bout of volatility in the coffee market is set to linger, complicating the outlook for consumers hoping to see lower prices, according to Italian roaster Luigi Lavazza SpA.
“The market needs to have stability before it’s time to think about a reduction of prices,” Giuseppe Lavazza, chairman of the family-owned firm, said in an interview in London on Wednesday. It will take at least two strong harvests and a significant rebuilding of global inventories to ease supply constraints, making lower prices unlikely over the next two years, he added.
Arabica futures in New York posted their biggest intraday jump in 26 years on Monday but erased much of that gain in the next session. On Wednesday, prices fluctuated, indicating that volatility may prove sticky as market participants weigh expectations of a record harvest in top-grower Brazil against concerns about the effect of the El Niño weather phenomenon.
“I think we are living in a long-lasting period of instability and uncertainty,” Lavazza said. “Instability is the new constant.”
Prices of the premium bean variety favored by specialty chains such as Starbucks Corp. had eased from 2025’s record highs on prospects of a bumper Brazilian crop, raising hopes among roasters that retail prices would eventually follow.
That optimism has been dimmed as the market faces tightening inventories, delays to Brazil’s harvest and renewed investor bets that weather-linked disruptions could threaten supplies. Roasters are grappling with tighter margins, Lavazza said.
Prices have surged about 30% since forecasters first declared El Niño last month. The weather phenomenon historically brings unseasonable changes to temperature and precipitation that can hurt crops. Hotter, drier weather during Brazil’s flowering season can reduce arabica yields.
“We need a couple of very strong crops from Brazil and Vietnam to rebuild stability,” Lavazza said. “So maybe the first good crop is arriving,” but we don’t yet have evidence it will be as good as was expected at the end of 2025, he added.
Gitau and Tobias write for Bloomberg.
