Why everybody refuses to believe crime is falling, even though it is

Homicides in Los Angeles are on track to hit a nearly 60-year low. Property crime across California dipped in the last year and now stands at its lowest ebb in three decades.

Yet a feeling persists that the Golden State has been tarnished by a wave of unchecked crime. Conservative media fanned that notion in June, when unruly and sometimes violent crowds took over streets in a few L.A. neighborhoods.

Statistics and analysis from the Public Policy Institute of California suggest that though most types of crime numbers in the state are headed in the right direction — downward — perception does not always meet reality.

Crime feels like it’s everywhere on TV and social media

The average citizen now has a front-row seat to more robbery, battery and noxious behavior than ever. That’s because mobile phones and social media give all of us a front-row seat to the most antisocial miscreant behavior in our midst.

Nothing enrages a tax-paying, law-abiding citizen like the sight of some knucklehead(s) busting into stores, ransacking shelves or covering buildings with graffiti. It happened at an Auto Zone store in South L.A. in June. And at another Auto Zone again this week. It’s not just that the do-badders are breaking the law; it’s that they seem to be relishing doing wrong. And they seem to have no concern about consequences.

In the June incident, many of the thieves can be seen videoing their handiwork. One young woman holds a pink balloon. Like it’s a party. Ah, the impunity.

Those images do more to instill and inflate Californians’ sense of lawlessness than perhaps any other factor. A boatload of statistics showing that many crimes have decreased can’t pack the emotional wallop of watching a crime spree unfold before your eyes.

And yet. Two explosive videos do not a trend make. Researcher Magnus Lofstrom at the Public Policy Institute of California reported this week that crime totals for 2024 “provide mostly good news for Californians,” adding: “Most of the crimes that saw notable increases during and after the pandemic fell in 2024.”

LAPD graduate Amri Camarena hugs her sister Elvira Espindola-Diaz, also an officer, after receiving her diploma from Chief Jim McDonnell on May 2.

(Myung J. Chun/Los Angeles Times)

The numbers show most types of crime are decreasing

Violent crime decreased statewide by 9.6% from 2023 to 2024, the stats showed. That included a 13.7% dip in the homicide rate, reflecting what LAPD figures show for the state’s largest city. Property crimes declined 10% from 2023 to 2024 and by the same amount over the last five years. Burglaries have dropped nearly 20% over those five years, and larceny declined more than 14%.

To be sure, there is some bad news hidden in those trends. Even as violent crime have fallen, aggravated assaults have gone up nearly 22% over five years.

Lofstrom told me no one can quite explain the increase. There is a theory that the increasing ranks of homeless people could contribute to the increase, as those living without shelter present as easier perpetrators, and victims, of violence.

A couple of other problem spots: Auto theft rose markedly, by 19% since 2019. Shoplifting also continued a rise that became pronounced at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Those numbers, and video of outrageous smash-and-grab and takeover robberies, might explain why California voters last year approved Proposition 36. The measure toughens penalties for many crimes by reclassifying some misdemeanors as felonies, including when the items stolen are worth $950 or less.

We’ll see next year whether the new penalties, put in place in 2025, have an impact on crime. But even then, let’s not forget: Viral videos represent a narrow slice of our world, not all of reality. No matter how the ugly images make you feel, crime is generally on the downswing. And that’s a good thing.

Today’s top stories

Farmworkers take a break from picking leafy greens in San Jacinto to listen to community organizers Sandra Reyes and Enrique Velasco, center, during an event informing them of their legal rights.

(Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times)

Fear of ICE raids is making heat intolerable for Southern California families

• Fear induced by ongoing ICE raids has led some California workers to not show up, forcing those who do to work harder, under worsening heat conditions.
• Meanwhile, many families have been driven into hiding indoors, forgoing simple yet essential activities that would have allowed them to stay cool.
• Summer is just beginning, and organizers believe this will only worsen as temperatures continue to rise.

The 9th Circuit upholds a block on background checks for California ammunition buyers

• The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that California’s policy of background checks for bullet-buyers violates the 2nd Amendment, effectively killing a 2016 ballot measure meant to strengthen the state’s notoriously stringent gun laws.
• The ruling is the latest blow to statewide efforts to regulate guns.

What else is going on

• Southern California home prices fell nearly 1% in June as the market slows.
• A rare purple sea creature was found on a SoCal beach. Could warming waters be why?
• The Trump administration is gutting EPA’s research arm. Can California bridge the gap?
• The FCC has approved the Paramount-Skydance merger following a protracted political tug-of-war.
• Hulk Hogan remembered by Trump and the wrestling world: “Strong, tough, smart, but with the biggest heart.”

Commentary and opinions

• The “South Park” season opener puts Trump in bed with Satan and has Paramount on its knees, writes news and culture critic Lorraine Ali.
• Columnist Gustavo Arellano says Chris Newman is at the center of the immigration fight — again.
• Cane sugar Coke? Bringing back the Redskins? Trump’s little gripes serve a larger purpose, says contributing writer Matt K. Lewis.

This morning’s must reads

World & Nation

Americans may aspire to single-family homes, but in South Korea, apartments are king

South Korea’s middle-class dream of home ownership? It’s not a house with a white picket fence — it’s an apartment.

July 24, 2025

Other must reads

• A diss from Lollapalooza inspired Sharon and Ozzy Osbourne to create Ozzfest in 1996.
• All 43 of Billy Joel’s Hot 100 hits, ranked from worst to best.

For your downtime

The book tunnel and labyrinth area on the second floor are favorite photo stops for tourists, customers and visitors at the Last Bookstore on the corner of Spring Street and 5th in downtown Los Angeles.

(For The Times)

Going out

• City living: To nurture your creativity, take yourself on these 11 Artist’s Way’ dates in L.A.
• Outdoors: Looking for ways to beat the heat? Here’s how to find the shadiest hikes around L.A.
• Pets: If you’re not in a nature-y mood, here are some of the best dog-friendly patios to bring your pup to this summer.

Staying in

• Books: A new Jonathan Demme biography spotlights the director’s clashes with powerful stars — and his humanity.
• Television: “Happy Gilmore” is back for another round, as are Adam Sandler and his longtime collaborator.
• Movies: The funny-tragic rom-com “Oh, Hi!” starts blissful and ends toxic.
• Superheroes: Here’s how “The Fantastic Four” post-credits scene brings us one step closer to “Doomsday.”
• Recipes: Here’s a recipe for Valerie Gordon’s pistachio lemon olive oil cake.
• ✏️ Get our free daily crossword puzzle, sudoku, word search and arcade games.

A question for you: What are some ways you pamper your dogs?

Robert says, “My wife, Shuang, cooks fresh salmon mixed with rice for our elderly Chihuahua, Puddin.”

Email us at essentialcalifornia@latimes.com, and your response might appear in the newsletter this week.

And finally ... your photo of the day

A Coco Robotics food delivery robot crosses 11th Street as it travels along Montana Avenue in Santa Monica.

(Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times)

Today’s great photo is from Times photographer Robert Gauthier, who captured a food delivery robot as it crossed the street. The startup behind these bots is planning to expand aggressively across the country in the coming year — but the residents of Silver Lake have given them mixed reviews thus far.

Have a great day, from the Essential California team

Jim Rainey, staff writer
Diamy Wang, homepage intern
Izzy Nunes, audience intern
Kevinisha Walker, multiplatform editor
Andrew Campa, Sunday writer
Karim Doumar, head of newsletters

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