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Phooey to Gov. Abbott and Gov. Newsom. Can’t science draw fairer political maps?

Bruce Cain, shown in 2005, is a political science professor at Stanford.
(Gary Reyes / San Jose Mercury News)

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If you’re like a lot of other thoughtful citizens, you’re already queasy about the big, steaming boatload of hooey — a.k.a. congressional redistricting — that’s been sweeping the country from Texas to California to God knows where.

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You’re wondering: Can’t we come up with a system that makes sure members of the House of Representatives are elected in closer proportion to their parties’ popularity with the broader public?

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We can. But we most likely won’t, if history is any guide. More ideologically balanced systems have been proposed many times. Mathematicians have imagined them. Other countries have adopted them. But they haven’t gotten any traction in the U.S.

A couple of California’s most savvy political scientists — Bruce Cain of Stanford and Raphael Sonenshein of the Haynes Foundation — told me that one of the major reasons for lack of reform is that even fair-minded voters want more than one thing.

They want a system that grants each party the number of elected representatives it deserves. They also put a premium on keeping their cities and counties intact within single districts. Some demand farmers have a fair say, by grouping them in ag-centric districts. And the federal Voting Rights Act mandates that Latino, Black and Asian American voters not be too widely dispersed, to prevent diluting their voting power.

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“It’s a messy, messy business,” said Cain, who has been in the thick of those dynamics and seen even more craven motivations — like the time-honored tradition of officeholders drawing districts to protect their own hides.

Today, California elects 52 members to the “People’s House.” In trying to balance the Dems and GOP, one might look at the results of the last two presidential elections. Across those contests, the Democrat won more than 61% of the vote, while the Republican, President Trump, got more than 36%. (The remainder went to lesser-known candidates.)

For proportional partisan balance, that would suggest that 32 of California’s House members should be Democrats, while 19 should be Republicans. (The lone remaining seat might go to, say, a Libertarian, given that presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen got more than 1% of the vote in 2020.) Those totals would represent a huge shift from the current breakdown, in which 43 Democrats and nine Republicans represent the state in Washington. But Gov. Gavin Newsom and the Democratic-dominated Legislature just voted to ask voters to reduce Republican representation even further — potentially shifting as many as five more seats to Democrats. No wonder Republicans are fuming.

And no wonder Democrats in Texas also grumble, as they watch their Republican-led state pull a very similar maneuver, in reverse. They complain that Gov. Greg Abbott & Co. started the partisan remapping arms race. As noted by Mark Z. Barabak, The Times’ resident political savant, the Democrats play this tit-for-tat game at their peril, since President Trump’s party controls more state governments.

The Netherlands and other countries have exorcised partisan gerrymandering in favor of more proportional systems. They hold nationwide elections, then dole out seats based on the share of the vote each party receives. At least one objection: The link between voter and representative can be weakened, when the officeholder is not pledged to represent a particular corner of the map.

An acclaimed Harvard University economist recently published an article proposing another solution: a mathematical formula for “compacting” districts to eliminate the Rorschach-inkblot abominations of today. It sounded great, in theory.

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But Cain (who has personally helped draw past California political boundaries) has seen scads of mathematicians and economists offer solutions that “solve” the ideological fairness test. “The problem is the solution conflicts with a whole bunch of other things people care about,” such as keeping cities together and retain the voting power of minorities, Cain said.

At least California’s voter-approved system, with boundaries drawn by a bipartisan commission, seemed to offer better parameters for making decisions, taking the work out of the hands of career politicians. The system didn’t solve the congressional delegation’s ideological imbalance, but it was good enough to avoid triggering a lawsuit — a near-miracle in today’s hyper-combative America.

Today’s top stories

A pharmacist prepares a flu and Covid-19 vaccine for a patient
Pharmacist Deep Patel, left, prepares a flu and COVID-19 vaccine shot for Brandon Guerrero at a CVS in Huntington Park in summer 2024.
(Christina House / Los Angeles Times)

Why COVID keeps roaring back every summer, even as pandemic fades from public view

  • The season of travel and fun continues to bring a spike in COVID-19 activity, far less profound than during the height of the pandemic but enough for people to notice and worry.
  • “As we learn more about COVID, we are seeing that it has two surges a year: the late fall/early winter and in the summer, so we expect this trend of increased cases in the summer to continue,” said Dr. Elizabeth Hudson, the regional chief of infectious disease at Kaiser Permanente Southern California.
  • Plus, the FDA just overhauled its COVID vaccine guidance. Here’s what it means for you.

Inside the fight over the recycling label on your milk carton

  • Milk, juice, broth and wine containers made of carton can now wear the recycling insignia in California.
  • Waste experts, anti-plastic activists and environmentalists are incensed because they say cartons have limited, if any, value or recycling potential.
  • Others say it’s just the latest example of Gov. Gavin Newsom and CalRecycle retreating from the state’s landmark single-use plastic law, and other ambitious anti-waste and anti-plastic laws that he and the waste agency once touted.

Bidders show interest in geothermal in the California desert

  • For the first time in nearly a decade, federal officials on Tuesday auctioned off leases for new geothermal energy projects in California — and all 13 parcels offered received bids.
  • It’s a growing source of renewable energy that often involves drilling to tap pockets of steam and hot water rising from the center of the Earth, which then spin turbines to generate electricity.
  • The bidders are banking on the idea that new tools and technology will help them harness more of Earth’s natural heat as a source of clean electricity.

What else is going on

Commentary and opinions

This morning’s must reads

This 95-year-old retired watchmaker has spent decades trying to uncover the backstory — a possible Kennedy connection — of a clock he found online in 1999.

Other must reads

For your downtime

The exterior of a hotel
Hotel El Roblar in Ojai.
(Christopher Reynolds / Los Angeles Times)

Going out

Staying in

A question for you: What’s the most memorable thing you did this summer?

Maria Borbon writes, “Traveling to the Bay Area and eating dim sum in San Francisco.”

Email us at essentialcalifornia@latimes.com, and your response might appear in the newsletter this week.

And finally ... from our archives

A man with black hair posing in a black shirt against a gray background
Actor Chadwick Boseman photographed in 2018 for “Black Panther.”
(Jay L. Clendenin / Los Angeles Times)
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On Aug. 28, 2020, actor Chadwick Boseman, who found global fame as King T’Challa in “Black Panther,” died after battling colon cancer. He was 43.

The Times wrote about Boseman’s life and career, which includes other iconic roles such as baseball great Jackie Robinson, the “Godfather of Soul” James Brown and Supreme Court Justice Thurgood Marshall.

Have a great day, from the Essential California team

Jim Rainey, staff reporter
Hugo Martín, assistant editor, fast break desk
Kevinisha Walker, multiplatform editor
Andrew Campa, weekend writer
Karim Doumar, head of newsletters

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