What’s lacking among the candidates for California governor
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SACRAMENTO — To be elected governor of California, a candidate needs six vital assets.
Maybe not the entire six-pack, but almost. They include:
–A salable message. How’s the candidate going to make life better for the voter? Specifics, not just poll-generated platitudes. And beating up on President Trump isn’t going to be enough for Democrats next year.
Voters will probably be getting migraine headaches from listening to both Trump and his critics.
–Curb appeal. It greatly helps to have matinee-idol looks like Gov. Gavin Newsom. But that gift is rare. Average appearance, verbal skills and a good message will usually suffice.
–Boatloads of money. It costs tens of millions of dollars to market a gubernatorial aspirant’s message in far-flung, heavily populated and diverse California.
–A strong desire to win, also known as “fire in the belly.” Rather than relaxing in a recliner while watching the Rams or 49ers, the willingness to fly off to beg strangers for campaign donations.
–A thick skin. Top-tier candidates are constantly attacked by rivals and often covered by the news media in ways deemed unfair. But overreacting can destroy a candidacy.
–A strong record of public service to show voters you’re committed and won’t need lots of time with training wheels.
There also are other assets that can help. For example: youth.
“We are, in fact, going through a generational change in American politics,” says longtime Democratic strategist Darry Sragow. “That’s inevitable. New generations of voters have not been widely represented in government. The boomers have held political power for a very long time.”
Baby boomers are roughly ages 60 through 79 — born after World War II, between 1946 and 1964.
Another plus is political incumbency — the ability for a candidate to be identified on the ballot label as, for example, attorney general or lieutenant governor. That denotes credibility and a record. You’re not allowed to call yourself a “former” anything.
Democratic strategist Garry South calls the current crop basically “a field of formers” and says that saddles them with an extra burden.
So far, the 2026 race to replace the termed-out Newsom has been a boring trot.
That’s largely because the public’s political focus has been on Trump and the toady Republican Congress. But it’s also because none of the gubernatorial candidates possesses the full six-pack of vital assets.
For months, the contest was frozen in waiting mode: Waiting for former Vice President Kamala Harris and Sen. Alex Padilla to decide whether they wanted to run. Either would have been an early favorite, but not a shoo-in. They’d have faced a fight. And neither apparently felt the job was worth it. No fire.
Democratic donors and activists also were focused on Proposition 50 and waiting for the Nov. 4 redistricting election to be over. Most money and effort were going there.
Now that’s all behind us and the real race is underway.
“It’s a total free-for-all,” Sragow says. “None of these candidates is really on anybody’s radar.”
There’s no actual front-runner.
“You can’t read anything into the polls,” Democratic consultant Gale Kaufman says. “Just because somebody is a few points ahead doesn’t make them a front-runner. We don’t even know who all the candidates are yet.”
A late October poll of registered voters by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies showed that 44% were undecided. Former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter led Democratic candidates with a scant 11%. Former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra was second at 8%.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, was first overall with 13%. But never mind. No Republican has been elected to statewide office in California since 2006. And one won’t be 20 years later.
Last week, two more Democrats leaped into the race:
–Billionaire hedge fund founder Tom Steyer, 68, who ran for president in 2020 and got nowhere. He has a good populist, anti-Sacramento message and tons of money to voice it. But he has never held elected office. And Californians have historically rejected mega-rich, self-financing candidates attempting to begin their political career at the highest level.
–Rep. Eric Swalwell, 45, from the San Francisco Bay Area, who also ran unsuccessfully for president in 2020. He has a good message for progressives. But right now it may be too focused on Trump and not enough on Californians’ needs.
Aside from Steyer, none of the other Democratic aspirants are independently wealthy. They’ll need to raise barrels of money — ”24 hours a day, seven days a week,” Sragow says. That takes fire.
Other Democratic candidates:
–Porter, 51. She has curb appeal. But she publicly showed a thin skin with a contentious, rude performance during a TV interview in October. The nasty episode probably wasn’t fatal. But it apparently dropped her in polls, and that hurts fundraising.
–Becerra, 67. He has a respectful record as Health secretary, California attorney general and congressman. But questions were raised recently about Becerra’s judgment when federal prosecutors revealed the then-secretary didn’t notice that a top aide had raided his dormant political account for $225,000. Becerra wasn’t implicated. The aide pleaded guilty.
–Antonio Villaraigosa, 72, former Los Angeles mayor and state Assembly speaker. No one is more qualified to be governor. And he lets voters know where he stands. But they may be looking for someone younger.
–Betty Yee, 68, former state controller, Board of Equalization member and chief state budget honcho. She knows every inch of state government’s fiscal quagmire and has good ideas about unraveling it. But she’s short on curb appeal.
–State Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, 57, the lone incumbent in the field. But he missed an opportunity to shine as state schools chief.
One of these people will probably be our next governor, although others could still enter the race. So, maybe it’s time to start paying attention.
What else you should be reading
The must-read: Pondering a run for governor, Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta faces questions about legal spending
C.A. vs. Trump: ‘Played with fire, got burned’: GOP control of House at risk after court blocks Texas map
The L.A. Times Special: California’s child farmworkers: Exhausted, underpaid and toiling in toxic fields
Until next week,
George Skelton
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Ideas expressed in the piece
The 2026 California gubernatorial race has been marked by a lack of momentum and substantive differentiation among candidates due to voters’ sustained focus on national Trump-related politics and the November redistricting election that preceded it.[1] None of the current crop of candidates possesses all six vital assets needed to win statewide office: a salable message with concrete specifics, curb appeal, substantial financial resources, genuine determination to win, emotional resilience, and a strong public service record demonstrating commitment.[1] The field consists primarily of “formers” — former elected officials rather than current office holders — which places an additional strategic burden on their campaigns and limits their ability to leverage incumbent status on the ballot.[1] Individual candidates face specific vulnerabilities that undermine their viability, including Katie Porter’s demonstration of thin skin during a contentious television interview that appears to have damaged her polling support, Xavier Becerra’s credibility questions surrounding a subordinate’s misuse of a political account, Antonio Villaraigosa’s advanced age potentially conflicting with voters seeking generational change, Betty Yee’s limited curb appeal despite fiscal expertise, Tony Thurmond’s failure to distinguish himself as state schools chief, Tom Steyer’s complete absence of electoral experience, and Eric Swalwell’s excessive focus on opposing Trump rather than addressing Californians’ concrete needs.[1] The race represents a “total free-for-all” with no genuine frontrunner, as 44% of registered voters remain undecided and no candidate has captured commanding support or widespread voter attention.
Different views on the topic
Recent polling indicates the Democratic field is consolidating around an emerging frontrunner rather than remaining entirely fluid, with Katie Porter increasing her support from 12% to 18% following Kamala Harris’s exit from consideration.[1] The candidate field is articulating specific policy positions addressing issues that directly concern California voters, including housing affordability, healthcare access, and economic opportunity, rather than relying solely on generic talking points.[1][5] Several candidates possess substantive records and qualifications that directly address voter priorities, including Xavier Becerra’s service as U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary representing pioneering Latino representation in that role, Antonio Villaraigosa’s experience navigating state fiscal challenges as Los Angeles mayor and state Assembly speaker, and Tony Thurmond’s current incumbency as State Superintendent of Public Instruction.[2] Tom Steyer has articulated a concrete policy focus on California’s affordability crisis with promises to develop new solutions rather than simply opposing existing leadership, demonstrating specificity beyond partisan criticism.[4] A health-focused gubernatorial forum held in November 2025 demonstrated that leading candidates prepared substantive responses on policy challenges including healthcare access, housing, aging, climate, safety, and economic opportunity, suggesting engagement with detailed governance questions.[3] Political analysts have noted that Republican candidates establishing clear voter preference could achieve strong positioning for the primary’s top-two finalists, indicating the race possesses more structural clarity than a characterization of complete chaos suggests.[4]
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