A Republican California governor? It’s possible, but a long shot
- Share via
SACRAMENTO — Maybe we’ve all been wrong — we political junkies. Because it is possible, after all, for a Republican to be elected California governor next year.
I know, do the math: It’s impossible to elect a Republican governor in this deep blue state, right? Wrong. Calculate again and it’s conceivable that a GOP candidate could replace termed-out Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom.
That would turn California upside down politically and be an upset for the ages.
It’s not at all likely. But contrary to common wisdom, it’s within the realm of possibility — if too many ambitious Democrats leap into the race and keep running. Then they could splinter the vote.
There’d be too many Democratic candidates dividing up the party pie and ending up with small slices in the primary election. Just two Republicans could split the GOP vote. In that scenario, the Republican pair could both finish ahead of any Democrat.
Remember, in California’s open primary system, the top two vote-getters advance to the November general election regardless of their party affiliation. No other candidate is allowed on the ballot. And write-in candidacies aren’t permitted.
So it’s remotely possible for two Republicans to exclusively compete for the California governorship next November — with no way to elect a Democrat.
“Given that there are so many Democrats running without name ID and no front-runner, it‘s becoming more plausible, if still unlikely,” says Republican consultant Rob Stutzman.
Tony Quinn, a Republican political analyst, says that “Democrats are taking a real chance with too many people running.
“It would be funny if they woke up the morning after the primary and two Republicans were in the runoff. They could do nothing about that. Even the California Supreme Court couldn’t save them.”
As of this writing, there are eight major — more or less — Democrats competing against each other. At least two others also are thinking about entering the race. Only two major Republicans are running.
Let’s review the core political stats:
Of California’s 23 million registered voters, roughly 45% are Democrats, 25% are Republicans and 23% are independents who tend to lean left. Another 7% are members of minor parties.
American politics has arguably never been more polarized. Unlike past eras, voters today mostly stay within their own parties when casting ballots.
No Republican has won a statewide race in California since 2006. That’s an alluring fact for Democratic gubernatorial wannabes and one reason why so many have been drawn into the 2026 race.
For Republicans, the more Democrats the merrier.
The Democratic field — basically in the order of their independent poll rankings — includes:
Former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter, former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former state Controller Betty Yee, state Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, billionaire hedge fund founder Tom Steyer, former legislator Ian Calderon and San Francisco Bay Area Rep. Eric Swalwell, who hasn’t been a candidate long enough to be listed in polls.
Additionally, two other Democrats have been seriously thinking about running: billionaire Los Angeles developer Rick Caruso and state Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta.
“All the chatter and the polling shows voters are looking at the field like a hungry person who keeps reopening the fridge, hoping something worth eating shows up,” says Bonta advisor Dan Newman.
The filing deadline is March 6 for getting on the June 2 primary ballot.
The two major Republican candidates are Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton.
A late October poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies showed that a vast 44% of registered voters were undecided. Republican Bianco led all candidates with 13%, followed by Democrat Porter, 11%, and Becerra and Hilton each at 8%.
Every Democrat’s goal is to qualify for the November faceoff against a Republican. Then the Democrat would be home free, given the makeup of California’s electorate. But if two Democrats competed against each other, it could be a tough fight.
Political data expert Paul Mitchell ran 1,000 simulations of the primary and found that “the most common outcome” was a Democrat and Republican finishing in the top two.
There was a 15% to 20% possibility of two Democrats surviving the primary — and a 7% to 10% chance of two Republicans shutting out all Democrats.
Mitchell estimates that Democratic candidates will draw around 59% of the primary vote, Republicans 38% and minority parties 3%.
As for a shutout of Democrats, Mitchell asserts: “It’s easy to say it will never happen. But we’ve seen it happen in congressional and legislative races” in both parties — ”2% to 3% end up in these flukey contests.”
Mitchell points to “the most famous example” when Redlands Rep. Pete Aguilar, now chair of the House Democratic Caucus, initially ran for Congress in 2012. He lost in the primary when four Democrats split the vote and only two Republicans ran.
“It cost Democrats a seat they were virtually guaranteed to win in a general election with President Obama on the ballot,” Mitchell says. Obama carried the Democratic-leaning district by 16 percentage points. But there was no Democratic House candidate because too many ran in the primary.
If a Republican ever were elected governor, the lucky victor probably would instantly face a Democratic recall effort, Stutzman says. “Democrats would say ‘this a fluke who doesn’t represent the state.’”
It was the GOP that set the precedent for gubernatorial recalls. Republicans recalled Democratic Gov. Gray Davis and installed Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2003 — then tried unsuccessfully to boot Newsom in 2021.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The whole idea of electing a Republican governor seems wacko.
Of course, wacko things happen in today’s politics.
What else you should be reading
The must-read: Californians sharply divided along partisan lines about immigration raids, poll finds
TK: This rural hospital closed, putting lives at risk. Is it the start of a ‘tidal wave’?
The L.A. Times Special: What a scandal! (Or not.) How things have changed
Until next week,
George Skelton
—
Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here to get it in your inbox.
Insights
L.A. Times Insights delivers AI-generated analysis on Voices content to offer all points of view. Insights does not appear on any news articles.
Viewpoint
Perspectives
The following AI-generated content is powered by Perplexity. The Los Angeles Times editorial staff does not create or edit the content.
Ideas expressed in the piece
The author argues that a Republican winning California’s gubernatorial race in 2026 is genuinely possible despite the state’s Democratic lean, a scenario that would require an unusual but conceivable set of circumstances. Under California’s open primary system, the top two vote-getters regardless of party affiliation advance to the general election, meaning it is theoretically feasible for two Republican candidates to finish ahead of all Democrats if the Democratic vote becomes sufficiently fractured. With eight or more major Democratic candidates currently running compared to only two significant Republican contenders, there exists a genuine risk that Democrats could split their primary vote into such small portions that Republicans advance as the top two finishers to the general election ballot. The author notes that political simulations estimate a 7 to 10 percent possibility of two Republicans securing the top positions, which while remote, remains within the realm of possibility rather than mathematical impossibility. The field is particularly vulnerable to this scenario given that a late October poll found 44 percent of registered voters remained undecided, with Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco leading all candidates at 13 percent. The author emphasizes that historical precedent exists for this outcome, pointing to examples in congressional and legislative races where vote-splitting has occurred, and recalls a specific 2012 congressional race where Democrat Pete Aguilar initially lost his primary when four Democrats split the vote while only two Republicans ran. Should this unprecedented scenario transpire, the author suggests Democrats would likely pursue a recall effort against any Republican victor, following the precedent Republicans set when they recalled Governor Gray Davis in 2003.
Different views on the topic
Democrats fundamentally maintain structural advantages that make a Republican gubernatorial victory extremely unlikely, with approximately 45 percent of California’s 23 million registered voters being Democrats compared to just 25 percent Republicans, creating an electorate that heavily favors the party.[2] No Republican has won a statewide race in California since 2006, establishing a two-decade pattern demonstrating the state’s deep blue character that would be extraordinarily difficult to overturn regardless of primary dynamics.[1] The Democratic field includes exceptionally qualified and accomplished candidates with substantial records of achievement and backing from major party institutions; Katie Porter gained early momentum following endorsements from the progressive PAC EMILY’s List and several statewide labor unions, while Xavier Becerra, the former U.S. Health Secretary, emphasizes his record of suing the Trump administration 122 times as Attorney General, and Antonio Villaraigosa highlights his accomplishment of reducing Los Angeles crime by 50 percent and increasing school graduation rates by 60 percent as mayor.[2] Democratic candidates are motivated by strong anti-Trump sentiment across the party base, with several candidates explicitly emphasizing their commitment to resisting Trump administration policies and protecting California values.[1] While the field is currently large and unsettled, voter consolidation typically accelerates as primary elections approach, with registered Democrats historically uniting around viable general election candidates once primary dynamics clarify. Additionally, political simulations cited in the article itself estimate a 15 to 20 percent likelihood that two Democrats will advance to the general election runoff, a significantly more probable outcome than the 7 to 10 percent scenario of two Republicans shutting out all Democratic candidates.[1]
More From the Los Angeles Times
Podcasts
Whitney Haggins hopes to break ground using a design from The Foothill Catalog. Given her story, we re-air our conversation with Alex Athenson, co-founder of The Foothill Catalog Foundation.
Attorney Frank Carson was acquitted of murder. When the star witness admitted lying, Stanislaus County agreed to pay $22.5 million to settle the malicious prosecution suit.
Whaddya know – the feds work with CA’s “queen of green.” The Golden State gets “secret recipe” gas, but new partners mean new frictions over the familiar smog check program.
