Some Democratic candidates for California governor need to drop out
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SACRAMENTO — Every farmer knows there comes a time to thin the crop to allow the most promising plants to grow bigger and reach their potential.
The same is true in politics. And it‘s now time to cull some Democrats from the dense field of candidates for governor.
Put another way, it’s time for some lagging Democrats to step aside and provide more running room for swifter teammates in the race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Sure, they’ve all got a constitutional right to run. But too many Democrats on the June 2 primary ballot could flip the California governor’s office to a Republican.
You’d think that Democratic candidates now plodding behind in the race — with little realistic hope of catching up — would want to avoid having that on their conscience. Party leaders, too.
Until recently, this nightmarish scenario for Democrats seemed inconceivable. After all, California hasn’t elected a Republican to statewide office for 20 years. Roughly 45% of registered voters are Democrats. Only 25% are Republicans. About 23% are independents who lean left.
But do the math. There are nine Democrats running for governor with various degrees of seriousness. There are only two major Republican contenders, plus a third lagging practically out of sight.
Remember, California has a “top two” open primary. The top two vote-getters, regardless of their party, advance to the November election. And only the top two. Write-in candidates aren’t allowed.
It’s a matter of arithmetic.
Leaders of the California Democratic Party, along with liberal activists and loyal power brokers, are openly expressing fear that their crowded field of candidates running for governor may splinter the vote and open the door to a surprise Republican victory in November.
In the primary, about 60% of voters will choose a Democrat, political data expert Paul Mitchell figures. That number of voters split among nine Democratic candidates could result in all sharing smaller pieces of the pie than what the top two Republicans receive. Mitchell estimates nearly 40% of voters will side with a Republican, with just two candidates splitting most of the smaller GOP pie.
Recent polls have shown three candidates — two Republicans and one Democrat — bunched closely near the top. They’re Republican former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton, Democratic U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell from the San Francisco Bay Area, and Republican Sheriff Chad Bianco of Riverside County.
Another Democrat, former Rep. Katie Porter of Orange County, has been running close to the top three, followed by Democrat Tom Steyer, a billionaire former hedge fund investor.
It’s not likely that two Republicans will survive the primary and block a Democrat from reaching the general election. But it’s a legitimate possibility — and not worth the risk for the Democratic Party.
“How unlikely does it have to be for Democrats not to be worried?” asks Mitchell, who works primarily for Democrats. “Even if the chances are very small, the consequences could be catastrophic.”
He is constantly running primary election simulations. And last week he calculated the chances of two Republicans gaining the top slots at 18%. Most of his calculations have come out at around 10% to 12%, he says.
“I’m not trying to yell fire in a crowded theater,” Mitchell says. “But I’m trying to install a thermostat.”
He adds: “If there was ever a perfect storm when this could happen, we’re experiencing it now.”
The wide-open race to succeed Gavin Newsom as California governor has attracted a large and diverse field of candidates.
The absence of a gubernatorial candidate heading the Democratic ticket in November, Mitchell says, would result in party damage far beyond the governor’s office.
It would lower Democratic voter turnout and probably cost the party congressional and legislative seats, and also affect ballot measures, Mitchell says.
In fact, it could jeopardize the Democrats’ chances of ousting Republicans and capturing control of the U.S. House.
So which candidates should drop out, not only to avoid embarrassment on election night but to save the party from possible disaster?
Four clearly should stay.
Swalwell has some momentum and is the leading Democrat in most polls, although his numbers are only in the teens. He’s relatively young at 45 and many voters are looking for generational change.
Porter is the leading female — with a chance to become the first woman elected California governor — and has been holding up in the polls despite showing a bad temper in a damaging TV interview last year.
Steyer has loads of his own money to spend on TV ads. But he needs a more coherent, simple message in the spots.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan just entered the race, but shows some promise. He’s a moderate with strong Silicon Valley tech support. And he also has youth at 43.
Five others should consider bowing out.
Xavier Becerra has a great resume: Former U.S. health secretary, former California attorney general and longtime congressman. But he hasn’t shown much fire. And his message is muted.
Antonio Villaraigosa also has an impressive resume: Former Los Angeles mayor and state Assembly speaker. He’s running with a strong centrist message. But at 73, voters seem to feel his time is past.
Former state Controller Betty Yee knows every inch of state government, but lacks voter appeal.
State Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond hasn’t shined in his current job and has no traction in the governor’s race.
Former legislator Ian Calderon isn’t even a blip.
What causes some candidates to stay in a race against long, even impossible odds?
“Hope springs eternal,” says longtime Democratic strategist Darry Sragow. “History is replete with races that turned around on a dime.”
And many feel obligated to their donors and endorsers, he adds.
Also, consultants often “have a vested interest” financially in keeping their clients in the game, he acknowledges.
But currently, Sragow adds, “it’s time for the Democratic Party to get its act together and weed out the field.”
“Party leaders should start cracking the whip. There’s something to be said for decisions being made behind closed doors in a ‘smoke filled room.’ The difference today is that it’s in a smoke-free room.”
The filing deadline for officially becoming a candidate is March 6. After that, a name cannot be removed from the ballot. It’s stuck there — possibly drawing just enough votes to rob another Democrat of the chance to be elected governor in November.
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Until next week,
George Skelton
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Ideas expressed in the piece
The crowded Democratic field of nine candidates threatens to splinter the party’s vote and could allow two Republicans to advance to the general election under California’s “top two” primary system[1]. With Democrats comprising approximately 45% of registered voters split among nine candidates and Republicans comprising 25% split between two major candidates, the math creates a legitimate risk that Republican contenders could collectively receive more votes than any single Democrat[1].
Political data expert Paul Mitchell estimates there is an 18% chance of two Republicans gaining the top slots in the primary, with most of his simulations calculating odds between 10% and 12%[1]. Even these relatively low percentages carry catastrophic consequences, as the absence of a Democratic gubernatorial candidate on the November ballot would depress Democratic voter turnout and likely cost the party congressional and legislative seats while jeopardizing Democratic chances of capturing control of the U.S. House[1].
Four Democratic candidates should remain in the race: Eric Swalwell, who leads Democrats in most polls and brings generational change at 45; Katie Porter, the leading female candidate with a chance to become California’s first woman governor; Tom Steyer, who can self-fund television advertising; and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, a 43-year-old moderate with Silicon Valley support. These candidates have demonstrated momentum or unique advantages that justify their continued candidacy.
Five other Democratic candidates should consider dropping out: Xavier Becerra, despite his impressive resume as former U.S. health secretary and attorney general, lacks visible enthusiasm and has a muted message[1]. Antonio Villaraigosa, though a former Los Angeles mayor with a strong centrist platform, faces voter perception that his time has passed at 73. Former state Controller Betty Yee lacks voter appeal despite deep government knowledge, State Superintendent Tony Thurmond shows no traction in the gubernatorial race, and former legislator Ian Calderon barely registers in polling[1].
The filing deadline of March 6 represents a critical decision point, after which candidate names cannot be removed from the ballot, potentially allowing lagging candidates to draw enough votes to prevent a leading Democrat from advancing to November[1].
Different views on the topic
Former state Controller Betty Yee pushed back forcefully against pressure to exit the race, characterizing such efforts as undemocratic and noting that the race remains wide open with a significant portion of voters still undecided[1]. Other supporters of continued candidacies argued that the largest group of voters remains undecided and that the field could shift rapidly, making it premature to declare candidates nonviable[1].
Some Democratic delegates and observers characterized calls for candidates to drop out as “preemptive disqualification” and “scare tactics,” arguing that this represented a vibrant primary where voters, not party elites, should determine outcomes[1]. The argument centered on the principle that early elimination of candidates conflicts with democratic values and oversimplifies the fluid nature of primary races, where momentum can change dramatically[1].
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi expressed confidence that the scenario of two Republicans advancing “is not going to happen,” emphasizing Democratic unity and pointing to the party’s significant voter registration advantage[1]. She argued that fears were overblown and that Democratic voters would ultimately coalesce around a strong candidate[1].
Some candidates defended their continued participation by noting obstacles related to resource access and visibility that could rapidly shift campaign trajectories[1]. Former legislator Ian Calderon acknowledged staying in the race to reach undecided voters, suggesting that the race’s wide-open nature meant unexpected developments could fundamentally alter the competitive landscape[1].
Longtime Democratic strategist Darry Sragow noted that history is “replete with races that turned around on a dime,” acknowledging that candidates often maintain hope despite long odds and feel obligated to their donors and endorsers[1].
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