Scary time for California Democrats
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SACRAMENTO — The race for California governor couldn’t be much closer. And that’s scary for Democrats.
Only the top two vote-getters in the June 2 primary — regardless of their party — will advance to the November election. And although still unlikely, it’s increasingly conceivable that both could be Republicans.
“Scare tactics,” claim naysaying Democrats of such speculation.
But Democrats should have heeded scary rumblings 10 years ago when long shot Donald Trump was first running for president — and not buried their heads in the sand again two years ago when Joe Biden was feebly seeking reelection.
They ignored the warning signs and paid the price.
Now, the latest independent poll of likely voters shows that Republican candidates are running in two of the top three places for governor — meaning it’s possible both could qualify for the November ballot, guaranteeing the first election of a GOP chief executive in 20 years.
The best odds are on one Democrat and one Republican finishing in the top two — virtually assuring a Democratic victory in November.
California is too solidly Democrat — and President Trump too despised here — to envision a Republican beating a Democrat to replace termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom.
But Democrats could beat themselves if the current field of candidates remains intact. There essentially are eight Democrats and only two Republicans competing in the primary.
If the combined Democratic vote is splintered among the eight Democratic contestants, the two Republicans could end up finishing first and second.
“It’s hard to come up with the math that makes that work,” asserts Mark Baldassare, polling director for the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. He just completed a survey in which “a lot of things show that a Democrat and Republican [top-two finish] is the likely outcome,” he says.
But political data guru Paul Mitchell has been running primary election simulations and after Baldassare’s latest poll, he calculated the chances of an all-Republican finish at 18%.
That seems like the danger zone.
The solution is for some Democratic candidates who have little hope of winning to drop out of the race — very soon, in fact. They shouldn’t even file their official candidacy papers that are due by Friday. After that deadline, it’s impossible to remove their names from the ballot even if they’re no longer really running.
The PPIC poll, released last week, showed a statistical tie between the top five contenders — three Democrats and two Republicans, all within 4 percentage points of each other.
The breakdown:
Republican former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton, 14%; Democratic former Rep. Katie Porter, 13%; Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, 12%; Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell, 11%; Democratic hedge fund founder Tom Steyer, 10%.
Then came five Democratic stragglers.
Former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former state Controller Betty Yee each had 5%. Trailing them were San José Mayor Matt Mahan with 3% and state Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond at 2%.
Mahan’s a centrist wild card who jumped into the race while the polling was underway. So, there’s a valid excuse for his poor showing.
Swalwell and Steyer entered late last year and apparently took votes away from Porter and Becerra.
Porter and Yee are the only prominent female candidates, but they aren’t particularly being helped by female voters, the poll showed.
There was good news in the survey for Democrats hoping to pick up more congressional seats in California and help the party seize control of the House of Representatives from Republicans.
Asked whether they’d vote for a Democrat or Republican for Congress, 62% replied Democrat and only 36% Republican. That’s not surprising, since Democrats already hold 43 of California’s 52 seats.
Newsom and the Democratic-controlled Legislature last year gerrymandered California’s House districts with the goal of gaining at least five more seats. Voters approved that move by passing Proposition 50.
The especially bright news in the poll for Democrats was that in the five new House districts considered the most competitive, Democrats had a slight edge in voter preference. That was also true in districts held by Republicans.
Additionally, Democrats are much more enthusiastic than Republicans about voting in the congressional contests.
In the competitive districts, nearly two-thirds of voters disapprove of tactics by Immigration and Customs Enforcement in corralling undocumented immigrants. And 57% disapprove of Trump.
Anti-Trump sentiment is extremely high among all voters — 30% approval and 70% disapproval.
One head-scratcher in the poll was the voters’ denial about their political polarization. They were asked what qualification they considered most important in choosing a governor. Only 6% said it was the candidate’s political party. Rubbage.
“There are very few people who are voting outside their party,” Baldassare notes.
Two-thirds of voters answered that a candidate’s stand on issues is the most important consideration for them. Voters of both parties, plus independents, rated a candidate’s position on “affordability” as “very” important — and it topped their list of concerns.
A majority of voters said California is “going in the wrong direction.” This is a gloomy finding for Democrats who have been ruling state government — and most large cities — for many years.
But a much larger majority believe the country also is headed in the wrong direction. Back at ya, Republicans. It’s the GOP that’s in total control of the federal government.
Both parties in California have reasons to run scared this year.
What else you should be reading
The must-read: California Democrats unite against Trump, differ on vision for state’s future
Salud: Retired 100-year-old fighter pilot from Escondido receives Medal of Honor
The L.A. Times Special: Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris have traveled parallel paths. Will they collide in 2028?
Until next week,
George Skelton
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Ideas expressed in the piece
The 2026 California gubernatorial race presents a dangerous scenario for Democrats, with the possibility that both top finishers in the June primary could be Republicans, which would guarantee the first Republican governor in 20 years[2]. The author emphasizes that Democrats face a critical juncture similar to when warning signs preceded Trump’s rise and Biden’s reelection struggles, cautioning against complacency[1].
The Democratic primary field is dangerously fractured with eight candidates splitting the vote, while Republicans field only two competitors, creating a mathematical vulnerability where the Republican vote could consolidate while Democratic support scatters[2]. Political data analyst Paul Mitchell calculated an 18% probability of an all-Republican top-two finish, which the author characterizes as entering “the danger zone.”
Democratic candidates polling poorly should withdraw before Friday’s filing deadline to prevent their names from appearing on the ballot, as removing candidates after that date becomes impossible. This consolidation of the field is presented as essential to prevent the splintered Democratic vote from allowing both Republicans to advance[1].
While California’s solid Democratic electorate and widespread antipathy toward President Trump make a Republican general election victory unlikely, Democrats could “beat themselves” if the primary field remains intact and splits the vote inefficiently[2]. The author stresses that Democrats “should have heeded scary rumblings” previously and should not ignore warning signs now.
Different views on the topic
Mark Baldassare, the polling director for the Public Policy Institute of California, asserts that “it’s hard to come up with the math that makes” an all-Republican finish work, arguing instead that a Democrat-Republican top-two finish “is the likely outcome”[2]. This perspective suggests the hypothetical Republican sweep scenario is mathematically improbable rather than genuinely threatening.
The race remains too heavily Democratic for Republicans to ultimately prevail; California’s overwhelmingly Democratic electorate and intense disapproval of President Trump (70% disapproval among all voters) virtually ensures a Democratic victor in the November general election even if both Republicans advance from the primary[2]. The Democratic voter registration advantage and Trump’s 62% disapproval rating among California voters make a Republican gubernatorial victory highly implausible[1].
Some Democrats dismiss concerns about the primary fragmentation as “scare tactics,” suggesting the hand-wringing overstates genuine risks[2]. Additionally, 61% of voters across both parties report satisfaction with their gubernatorial options, indicating candidate viability and voter engagement rather than crisis[2].
San José Mayor Matt Mahan, who entered the race late during the polling period, represents a potential wild card consolidation candidate whose early 3% support may understate his viability, particularly as a centrist with appeal to tech industry donors and business stakeholders seeking moderate leadership[2]. Baldassare noted that the early polling “does not encompass” later February funding developments that could alter Mahan’s trajectory.
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