Scientists forecast 450,000 global heat deaths related to El Niño
Your morning catch-up: The super El Niño, L.A. approves $466 million in affordable housing spending and more big stories
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Scientists are forecasting more than 450,000 deaths because of intense heat generated by El Niño in the coming months, according to a new study from the Climate Impact Lab. And that’s in addition to the people likely to be killed by other climatic effects such as drought, wildfire and flooding.
Most of those heat deaths are expected in Africa and Southeast Asia, but about 3,500 are anticipated in the U.S.
About 1,000 are expected in California, said one of the study’s authors, Tamma Carleton, assistant professor of agricultural and resource economics at UC Berkeley. Roughly 450 are likely in Los Angeles and San Diego, she said.
The super El Niño
That news comes as local and state leaders are scrambling to prepare for the projected effects of this “super El Niño”, potentially the most intense warming of the water on the surface of the Pacific Ocean on record.
A study published recently in the journal Science examines temperature data from more than 900 years of coral records from the Galápagos and suggests that El Niños have become much stronger since people started warming the planet through fossil fuel emissions.
El Niños create all manner of climate mayhem, including soaring temperatures on land, more intense storms at sea and epic rain and snowfall.
On Monday, Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency to free up money for coastal communities to start stockpiling sandbags and big industrial pumps, and for mountain towns to gather extra snow removal equipment.
On Tuesday, the city of Long Beach declared a local emergency so it can pay for storm preparation and clean up without lengthy contracting red tape.
The view from Long Beach
It’s never a good sign when TV news trucks show up in your neighborhood before breakfast, and I counted at least four jammed into narrow side streets along the boardwalk on the Long Beach Peninsula on Wednesday morning.
They had returned to the site of spectacular destruction this month when remnants of Hurricane Marie sent enormous waves thundering into the boardwalk with spray reaching at least three stories high and then raining down on multimillion-dollar oceanfront homes. At least 19 had to be evacuated as a result of the damage.
Another, much stronger hurricane, Polo, is churning in the Pacific off the coast of Mexico and has the potential to send even larger waves barreling toward the California coast as early as Monday.
A “postcard from the future”
All of us would be wise to view the coming months as a “postcard from the future,” Carleton and her colleagues wrote in the study, because the heat the planet is likely to experience this winter is a taste of what’s to come in 20 years unless something changes drastically.
But knowing something is coming and doing something about it are two very different things, Carleton acknowledged. Change is hard for everyone, from people living at subsistence level in sub-Saharan Africa to those living in relative splendor on the California coast.
“I’m a Bay Area resident; we have no air conditioning,” she said with a chuckle. “So I sit in my office sweating at the keyboard when it’s a hot day, and I actually study productivity and health effects of climate change.”
As for people on the Long Beach Peninsula, they’ve been warned for years that global warming, sea level rise and the intensification of storms almost certainly will render their homes uninhabitable in the coming decades.
Nevertheless, they remain, and their already stratospheric real estate values continue to rise.
And the news vans? They’re not going anywhere, either.
Top stories
Voter concerns and the November election
- California voters identified the high cost of living as their top concern, followed closely by opposition to the Trump administration in a new statewide poll.
- Strong voter support for fighting Trump administration policies may be among the many reasons Democrat Xavier Becerra leads Republican Steve Hilton, 58% to 33%.
- Nithya Raman’s double-digit lead in an L.A. mayoral poll puts pressure on Mayor Karen Bass to win undecided voters.
Affordable housing in L.A.
- The L.A. City Council unanimously approved $466.6 million in affordable housing funding, the largest pool ever.
- Roughly 70% of the record budget will come from Measure ULA, the so-called mansion tax, which levies a 4% or 5.5% tax on L.A. property sales above $5.4 million.
English-only Head Start
- The Trump administration is proposing an English-only overhaul of Head Start, which could affect nearly 290,000 dual-language learners nationwide, including thousands in Los Angeles County.
- Supporters say prioritizing English will help English learners; critics warn it could undermine their learning.
More news
- A military training jet plunged into the ocean about six miles northwest of Morro Bay.
- The troubled LAX People Mover was delayed again — and it might not be the last time.
- The death of Presley Gerber, Cindy Crawford’s son, sparked questions over his possible drug supplier and a luxury L.A. rehab center.
- Canada’s boycott forced the sale of a massive family-owned winery spanning San Joaquin and Sacramento counties.
Commentary and opinion
- Freaked out by “AI slop menus?” The Times’ Daniel Hernandez says they might be — gulp 🤢 — here to stay.
- Jackie Calmes explores how President Trump lost his star power, at home and abroad.
Editor’s pick
An analysis of 40,000 state records shows that health and safety violations are penalized inconsistently, and regulatory action rarely results in fines.
More picks
- “I flew 6,800 miles to be here:” First impressions of the Lucas Museum on opening day.
- The FBI case has widened against the man who posed as an NFL player to allegedly defraud dozens of women.
- Waymo is offering new incentives for commuters on public transit.
Things to do
- 🛍️ Park, walk and shop at these 8 lively shopping destinations in San Diego.
- 🎥 Watch Nathan Fielder’s Elizabeth Holmes documentary, “You Can See Everything,” ahead of its Oct. 16 theatrical release.
- 🏡 Step inside 8 private L.A. homes serving remarkable dining experiences.
Today’s recipe
A tangy, porky spin on a classic, Matty Matheson’s fried-Spam grilled cheese is stacked with thick, hearty slices of Spam and a heap of tangy kimchi in a recipe from his cookbook “Soups, Salads, Sandwiches.”
Question for you:
Where’s your favorite place to see fall colors in California?
Carol W. says, “My most favorite drive in mid-October is through Yosemite & over Tioga Pass to the Eastern Sierras. When you drop down the pass, the golden aspen trees along the base of the mountains come into view. Your eyes feast on the yellows, golds, and oranges smattered with some greens that haven’t turned yet. Heading south on Highway 395, a must do is slow down and take the June Lake Loop which is a riot of fall colors. Then, there are all the little canyons that creep up into the Sierras, Rock Creek, McGee creek, and Lundy Lake canyon are excellent side trips. California is a wonderful place to live!”
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Have a great day, from the Essential California team
Jack Dolan, investigative reporter
Hugo Martín, assistant editor, Fast Break desk
Kevinisha Walker, multiplatform editor
Andrew Campa, weekend writer
Karim Doumar, head of newsletters
How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to essentialcalifornia@latimes.com. Check our top stories, topics and the latest articles on latimes.com.
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