California Democrats launch pricey polling effort to winnow crowded gubernatorial field

As anxiety mounts among California Democrats about the potential of a Republican being elected governor, the state party will spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on polling to assess the viability of the sprawling field of candidates hoping to replace termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom, according to plans released Tuesday.

The move comes after nearly every Democratic candidate refused party leaders’ call last week to withdraw from the race to avoid splitting the vote in the June primary — an outcome that could lead to a Republican being elected to statewide office for the first time in two decades.

“Candidates have filed, and now they’ve got the opportunity to showcase their viability, their path to win. I want to simply ensure that everybody has information to fully understand the current state of the race,” said Rusty Hicks, the leader of the California Democratic Party.

As campaign season ramps up, the series of six polls will allow “candidates, supporters, the media, voters, anyone and everyone to have a clear understanding of what is or is not happening in this particular race,” he said.

California

Anxiety grows among California Democrats as gubernatorial candidates rebuff calls to drop out

Despite a warning from the state Democratic Party chair that a crowded field could hand the governorship to a Republican, eight of nine major Democratic candidates filed their paperwork to run, betting they can build momentum before the June primary.

March 5, 2026

The filing deadline to appear on the June 2 ballot was Friday. Three days earlier, Hicks released an open letter urging candidates who did not have a path to victory to withdraw from the race. Of the nine prominent Democrats who had announced runs for governor, only one heeded his call: former state Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon.

That means the eight other candidates’ names will appear on the ballot, regardless of whether they decide to later drop out. And that creates the possibility of a Republican winning the race because of how California elections are decided.

The state has a voter-approved top-two primary system, under which the two candidates who receive the most votes in the June primary advance to the November general election, regardless of party.

Two prominent Republicans will appear on the ballot: former conservative commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. Even though Democratic voters outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1, and the state’s electorate last elevated Republicans to statewide office in 2006, it is mathematically possible for Democrats to splinter the vote, allowing the two GOP candidates to advance.

Under such a scenario, not only would Republicans be guaranteed the leadership of the nation’s most-populous state, but Democratic voter turnout also would probably be depressed in November, potentially affecting down-ballot races such as those that could determine control of Congress.

California

Your guide to the race for California governor: Who will replace Newsom?

The wide-open race to succeed Gavin Newsom as California governor has attracted a large and diverse field of candidates.

May 14, 2026

Hicks’ call last week prompted concerns among candidates of color, including former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and state Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, that the effort was aimed at every nonwhite candidate in the race.

The state party chairman responded that his letter was not aimed at any specific candidate, and that he was not bothered that most candidates did not heed his call to exit the race.

“It’s not something I lose sleep over,” Hicks said. But he added that the voter surveys will be conducted by Los Angeles-based Evitarus, the state’s only Black- and Latino-led full-service polling firm, and will oversample historically underrepresented communities: Latino, Black and Asian American voters.

Hicks said the polling will cost “multiple six figures” but did not specify the exact amount.

The first poll will be released on March 24, and then five additional surveys will come out every seven to 10 days until voters start receiving mail ballots in early May.

“We’re putting this forward to ensure everyone is armed with the information they need to clearly have an eyes-wide-open assessment of where the state of the race currently is between now and when ballots land in the mailboxes of voters,” Hicks said.

Some candidates called the polling effort a frivolous waste of money at a time when control of Congress could be decided by crucial California races.

“With eight candidates in the 2026 governor’s race, there is no shortage of voter polling. Yet the California Democratic Party commissioned another very costly poll — clearly aimed at narrowing the field,” former state Controller Betty Yee said. “This unprecedented tactic raises legitimate concerns about the construction of the poll and its potential interpretations.”

Thurmond added that the effort “seems like another misguided attempt from the party to put their thumb on the scales in this race in favor of D.C. Democrats or billionaires.”

He argued in a statement that “there will be plenty of public polling” in the governor’s race, and that “for the hundreds of thousands of dollars the party is spending on this, they could instead be working to flip a congressional seat red to blue to help us win back the House and impeach Trump.”

Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa’s campaign manager, Ajay Mohan, also said the polling effort “sounds like a giant waste of money.”

“Why wouldn’t the party spend that money turning out more Democratic voters?” Mohan said through a spokesperson.

In a call with reporters Tuesday, Hicks said the polling will help “everyone” — including candidates “who probably don’t have the resources to conduct this level of research” — have “a clear sense” of the race.

After most of those candidates rebuffed his plea and opted to stay in the race, the chairman said he was “not under any illusion” that his letter would actually push many in the governor’s race to “pack it up [and] walk away.”

“Frankly, the framing of that is just incorrect,” he said. “The reality is ... they have the right to file for office. They have earned the right to demonstrate their viability. They have filed for the ballot and so now they have that opportunity. Nothing more, nothing less.”

Hicks’ letter to the candidates last week had a much different tone, however. He urged the candidates who did not have a “viable” path to victory to forgo officially filing for the race.

“It is imperative that every candidate honestly assess the viability of their candidacy and campaign,” Hicks wrote in the publicly released letter. “I recognize my suggestions are hard for many to contemplate and may be even viewed as overly harsh by some.”