Newsom reluctant to endorse a successor, break gridlock in governor’s race
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- With too many candidates splitting votes and no clear front-runner, California Democrats risk an unlikely, though potentially catastrophic scenario for the party: Two Republicans could finish first and second in June’s primary and lock Democrats out of the general election.
- An endorsement from Gov. Gavin Newsom would elevate one of the Democrats running to replace him.
- President Trump’s recent endorsement of conservative commentator Steve Hilton over Republican Sheriff Chad Bianco is expected to reduce pressure on Newsom to weigh in.
SACRAMENTO — Gov. Gavin Newsom has dismissed questions about the race to succeed him in California for much of the last year.
“You know my position,” he said to reporters last month. “I don’t talk about this governor’s race.”
But as his party runs the risk of losing the most powerful office in the state, Newsom recognizes that he may need to step in and endorse one of the Democratic candidates whether he wants to or not.
California Democrats have put themselves in an unnecessary pickle in the 2026 gubernatorial election: Too many candidates, with few policy distinctions among them, are running to replace Newsom. Opinion polls show no clear favorite and Democrats largely splitting votes.
The tepid support raises the possibility that two Republicans in the race could place first and second in the June primary and advance to the general election. By their own strategic blunder, Democrats could be knocked out of the contest in a state where they outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1.
It’s a disaster everyone saw coming and no Democrat, except perhaps Newsom, has the power to stop, said Thad Kousser, a professor of political science at UC San Diego.
“Gavin Newsom’s megaphone is loud enough to echo across this race, leading other prominent members of the party to endorse whomever he chooses and vaulting someone, finally, out of the crowded pack,” Kousser said. “This could be the last remaining chance for the party to avoid splitting its vote in June and being locked out of November.”
Despite Democrats’ long reign in California, a poll shows two Republicans leading by slim margins in the race for governor as the June primary fast approaches.
Endorsing a successor before the primary carries inherent risk and perhaps more so for Newsom, who is positioning himself as a potential leading candidate in the 2028 presidential contest. Publicly backing a candidate for governor ties Newsom to the outcome of the race and the candidate.
“If it doesn’t work, his endorsement would broadcast his political vulnerabilities and attach him to his party’s weakness just at the time when he needs to project his personal strength,” Kousser said. “But if his intervention rescues the party and elevates his chosen successor into being an overwhelming favorite in the general, it would further elevate his national profile while winning him a close friend in Sacramento.”
After explosive allegations surfaced Friday accusing Northern California Rep. Eric Swalwell, one of the Democratic front runners in the governor’s race, of sexual assault and misconduct, Newsom did not join other prominent Democrats who called on Swalwell to drop out of the race.
“As we continue to learn more, these allegations from multiple sources are deeply troubling and must be taken seriously,” Newsom said.
While that could change, Newsom for months has been taking a wait-and-see approach, tracking polls to determine whether his intervention is necessary.
President Trump’s decision to endorse conservative commentator Steve Hilton over the weekend could relieve some pressure on Newsom to weigh in.
Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the top two Republicans in the race, were leading the field of candidates before the president got involved, according to a recent poll by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies.
If Trump’s support causes support for Hilton to rise and Bianco to drop, it’s more likely that one Democrat and one Republican will place in the top two in the primary.
A big field of candidates makes it possible for a Republican to be elected governor. California’s Democratic Party leader told unviable candidates to bow out.
Trump’s endorsement left Kousser and other California political observers scratching their heads. If a candidate from each party advances to November, the Democrat is expected to easily win the race because of the voter registration advantage.
Until this week, Newsom had held back from responding to Bianco’s controversial investigation into voter fraud, in which the Sheriff’s Department seized thousands of ballots in Riverside County. State Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta led the court challenges. Bianco said he paused his inquiry in late March, citing “politically motivated lawsuits and court filings.”
But the governor publicly celebrated a California Supreme Court ruling this week that Bianco halt the investigation.
“This rogue sheriff chased conspiracy theories, tried to undermine our elections, and got the ruling he deserved,” Newsom posted on X, the social media platform owned by Elon Musk. “Trump and MAGA’s election denialism is a cancer, a danger to our democracy, and it must be stopped.”
Rob Stutzman, a Republican political consultant in California, compared Newsom’s posts about Bianco to “trying to return a gift.” The Democratic governor’s attack could boost Bianco’s profile and support among Newsom-hating voters.
“Trump has probably bailed the Democrats out of their dilemma by elevating Hilton and for Newsom’s response to be to elevate and draw attention to Bianco, just doesn’t make any sense, and it’s everything Bianco wanted out of this whole ballot seizure gambit to start with,” Stutzman said.
Newsom’s reluctance to endorse a Democrat in the race is, in part, a reflection of his feelings about leaving a position he’s held for eight years and a recognition of his own “sell-by date” in the post. His answers to questions about the contest vary from declining to comment to pointing out that voters don’t appear interested in the race, either.
The wide-open race to succeed Gavin Newsom as California governor has attracted a large and diverse field of candidates.
The focus on national politics, attention Trump draws “24 hours a day” and earlier speculation over whether former Vice President Kamala Harris or U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla would run for governor distracted from the candidates in the field, he said.
“But when I’m out in the community, people aren’t talking to me about it, which is interesting this late, just weeks and weeks before early voting,” Newsom said in March. “And so, as a consequence, I’m not directly as engaged as perhaps I might need to be.”
His comments suggesting that he isn’t paying attention to the race haven’t sat well with some of the candidates. Some Democrats, including San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, were already running against Newsom’s record.
For Newsom, inaction is more risky than picking a losing candidate, Kousser said. Though California’s top-two system and poor leadership from the state party would mostly be to blame if Democrats lose, giving control of California to the GOP would bolster criticism of Newsom’s leadership.
“A Republican victory in the state Newsom leads would be read, on the national stage, as a rejection of his legacy,” Kousser said.
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